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#criticaltransition — Public Fediverse posts

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  1. Daniele de Rigo @[email protected] ·

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    Recalling another study in 2021 on the #AMOC #decline [2]

    "AMOC decline during the last decades" may be "not just a fluctuation related to low-frequency #climate #variability or a linear response to increasing #temperatures.

    Rather, the presented findings suggest that this decline may be associated with an almost complete loss of stability of the AMOC over the course of the last #century, and that the AMOC could be close to a #CriticalTransition to its weak circulation mode" [2]

    #amoc #decline #climate #variability #temperatures #century
  2. Daniele de Rigo @[email protected] ·

    3/

    Authors' claim in [1]: "method to not only determine whether a #CriticalTransition will happen but also an estimate of when it will happen. We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95 % confidence range).

    These results are under the #assumption that the #model is approximately correct, and we, of course, cannot rule out that other mechanisms are at play, and thus, the #uncertainty is larger"

    Figure 5 is key:
    nature.com/articles/s41467-023

    #criticaltransition #assumption #model #uncertainty