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LABOUR WIPEOUT: Only Gower and Cardiff East left standing in Wales if an election were held tomorrow, YouGov model says

If a general election were held tomorrow, Labour would be left with two MPs in the whole of Wales, and one of them would be Gower’s Tonia Antoniazzi, according to YouGov’s new seat-by-seat model.

Swansea West, Neath and Swansea East, Llanelli, Aberafan Maesteg and Bridgend would all go. Across Wales the map is carved up between Plaid Cymru, projected to win 15 seats, and Reform UK on 14. The other Labour survivor is Cardiff East.

The projection comes from YouGov’s MRP, a model that takes a very large national survey and works out how each of the 632 seats in Great Britain would vote. This one is the pollster’s first since Andy Burnham entered Downing Street, built on nearly 17,000 interviews between 23 August and 18 September.

Across the UK it makes Labour the largest party in a hung parliament on 241 seats, down 170 on 2024, with the Conservatives on 130 and Reform UK on 123. YouGov says that is a marked recovery for Labour on its model a year ago, which had Reform close to a majority.

Wales is the exception. Labour won 27 of the 32 Welsh seats in 2024. YouGov’s central estimate now gives it two, which the pollster says would be the party’s worst Westminster result in Wales since 1906, and it notes that any “Burnham bounce” visible in England is far more muted here. The 32nd seat, Monmouthshire, is a narrow Conservative gain.

Seat by seat: Gower held by three points, Neath and Swansea East gone by 11

Gower: Antoniazzi 26%, Reform 23%, Plaid 17%, Conservatives 15%. A three-point hold in the seat she has represented since 2017, and where she was among the first Labour MPs to call on Keir Starmer to go after May’s Senedd result.

Gower MP Tonia Antoniazzi: a three-point hold in YouGov’s projection. (Image: Tonia Antoniazzi)

Swansea West: Plaid 31%, Reform 24%, Labour 17%. Torsten Bell, the Treasury minister who took the seat in 2024, would be third, seven points behind Plaid.

Neath and Swansea East: Reform 34%, Labour 23%, Plaid 18%. The biggest projected Reform lead in the region, 11 points over Carolyn Harris, who backed Starmer to stay in May when Antoniazzi did not.

Aberafan Maesteg: Plaid 33%, Reform 30%, Labour 20%. Stephen Kinnock, the Secretary of State for Wales, would be third in his own seat. YouGov names him alongside Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Bryant in Rhondda and Ogmore as cabinet ministers trailing both Plaid and Reform.

Llanelli: Plaid 34%, Reform 33%, Labour 11%. A one-point fight between Plaid and Reform, with Nia Griffith’s Labour a distant third.

Bridgend: Reform 23%, Labour 23%, Plaid 20%. A dead heat on the rounded figures; YouGov’s underlying numbers put Reform just ahead of Chris Elmore.

Further west the picture is steadier for the incumbents who are not Labour. Ann Davies would hold Caerfyrddin for Plaid on 43% to Reform’s 27%, and Ben Lake’s Ceredigion Preseli is one of the safest seats in Wales at 51%.

Two others are on a knife edge. In Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, the Liberal Democrats’ David Chadwick trails Reform 24% to 23%. In Mid and South Pembrokeshire, Reform leads on 28% with Labour’s Henry Tufnell fourth on 18%.

SeatMP elected 2024YouGov projectionTop three (%)Swansea WestTorsten Bell (Lab)PlaidPlaid 31 / Ref 24 / Lab 17GowerTonia Antoniazzi (Lab)LabourLab 26 / Ref 23 / Plaid 17Neath and Swansea EastCarolyn Harris (Lab)ReformRef 34 / Lab 23 / Plaid 18Aberafan MaestegStephen Kinnock (Lab)PlaidPlaid 33 / Ref 30 / Lab 20LlanelliNia Griffith (Lab)PlaidPlaid 34 / Ref 33 / Lab 11CaerfyrddinAnn Davies (Plaid)PlaidPlaid 43 / Ref 27 / Con 11Brecon, Radnor and Cwm TaweDavid Chadwick (LD)ReformRef 24 / LD 23 / Con 21BridgendChris Elmore (Lab)ReformRef 23 / Lab 23 / Plaid 20Ceredigion PreseliBen Lake (Plaid)PlaidPlaid 51 / Ref 24 / LD 7Mid and South PembrokeshireHenry Tufnell (Lab)ReformRef 28 / Con 21 / Plaid 19Central projections from YouGov’s September 2026 MRP. Figures rounded.

Why YouGov says the Reform seats are the shakiest

The model comes with a health warning of its own. YouGov says 37% of all seats are decided by five points or less, and that rises to two thirds of the seats Reform wins, which makes them vulnerable to tactical voting. Its research suggests around two thirds of Lib Dem and Green voters would switch to Labour in a straight Labour v Reform contest, enough to overturn Reform’s lead in most of those seats.

Locally that matters most in Neath and Swansea East, Bridgend and Mid and South Pembrokeshire, the three seats where Reform is projected to take a Labour seat directly. It does nothing for Labour where the challenger is Plaid.

YouGov also warns against reading too much into any single seat: the model works from demographics and past voting, cannot yet prompt for candidate names, and is less reliable where local factors are strong.

A general election is not due until 2029. But the model lands four months after Plaid Cymru won the Senedd election and formed a Welsh Government, and it suggests the shift of Welsh voters away from Labour in May has not reversed with the change of Prime Minister.

Related stories from Swansea Bay News

SWANSEA: Gower MP Tonia Antoniazzi calls on Keir Starmer to step aside, as Swansea East’s Carolyn Harris backs him to stay
Where the two Swansea MPs stood in May.

SENEDD ELECTION: Rhun ap Iorwerth to lead Plaid minority government after historic victory ends 27 years of Labour rule
The May result the new model echoes.

REFORM WALES: Neath-born former teacher Helen Jenner is the party’s new Senedd leader
Reform’s change at the top in the Senedd this week.

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