#akleg — Public Fediverse posts

June EIA STEO| "We forecast Brent will average around $105/b in June and July. Assuming Hormuz reopens in 3Q 2026, we assume oil prices will decrease to an average of $89/b by 4Q26, and gradually lower to an average of $79/b in 2027." #akleg https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

Tax concessions MAY make #AKLNG competitive for export contracts. But it makes NO economic sense to proceed with Phase 1 without first ensuring those export contracts are signed. That puts Alaskans at risk of being stuck in a forever purgatory. #akleg https://alaskalandmine.com/landmines/brad-keithleys-chart-of-the-week-two-observations-on-aklng-part-1/

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.50% v PFC 6.71%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.56% v PFC 9.56%
* 1-yr: S&P 24.94% v PFC 14.40%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$920mil)
> FY28-34 ⬆️ $9 (avg annual +$347mil)
#akleg

This Wk's Top 3| Is what we've learned about #AKLNG enough to get it over the line, what does the continuing lack of interest in #ANWR tell us & most candidates seem oblivious to the signals coming from Alaska consumers. #akleg https://www.facebook.com/share/1KhFxZsu9T/

This Week's Column| Proceeding with Phase 1 of the #AKLNG project should be conditioned on the project first securing firm, irrevocable customer commitments for Phase 2. Here’s why. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-two-observations

"While Glenfarne’s proposed $16/Mcf price appears attractive in the current elevated market ... its attractiveness quickly fades as lower long-term oil prices and lower JKM levels increasingly dominate Asian LNG prices." #akleg https://buff.ly/v9KmsTa

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.41% v PFC 6.71%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.63% v PFC 9.56%
* 1-yr: S&P 25.85% v PFC 14.40%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$920mil)
> FY28-34 ⬆️ $9 (avg annual +$347mil)
#akleg

The Monday Chart| We are making changes to our Monday gas/LNG chart to reflect a sharpened focus on the issue. We have split the previous chart in two to focus separately on LNG exports and imports. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/changes-to-our-monday-gaslng-pricing

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | What who filed and who didn’t mean for Alaska’s future, the insights gleaned from LegFin’s FY26 & 27 budget summaries, & how some pushing #AKLNG tax reductions are cherry-picking their fiscal policy. #akleg https://buff.ly/mCI9mEC

This Week's Column| Proceeding with Phase 1 of the #AKLNG project should be conditioned on the project first securing firm, irrevocable customer commitments for Phase 2. Here’s why. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-two-observations

The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg

𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow two measures of inflation:

> First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1413787
PCE: up 50.0% (5.0%/yr)
CPI: up 26.2% (2.6%/yr)

1/2

The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 del, 2 headed to Asia (EM). #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 4
* Not in ANS service: 1 (CP) in maint
* Asia: 2 (EM)
* USWC: 8 (4 CP, 3 HIL, 1 MPC)

Some seem to think that #AKLNG's proposed $16/Mcf fixed gas price is a good deal. It's not. Here is a comparison of that to Alaska regas equivalents using current JKM and standard Asian market oil-indexed futures. #akleg

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | What who filed and who didn’t mean for Alaska’s future, the insights gleaned from LegFin’s FY26 & 27 budget summaries, & how some pushing #AKLNG tax reductions are cherry-picking their fiscal policy. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-612026

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $113, ahead of both Brent (+$10.90) and Brent/WTI avg ($13.16). #akleg

𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, we update the 10-year outlook for the most recent $$oil futures prices and other updated information (now using the #akleg enrolled budget for spending levels). Currently, the state is running an average annual 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙩 over the next 10-year period of $2.02 billion (30% of the UGF budget, ~4.7% of Alaska AGI, ~3.0% of Alaska Private Sector GDP).

2/4

The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: https://bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg

1/4

The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 93% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running 6% ⬆️ SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $81. #akleg

1/2

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.41% v PFC 6.71%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.63% v PFC 9.56%
* 1-yr: S&P 25.85% v PFC 14.40%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $17 (+$813mil)
> FY28-34 ⬆️ $9 (avg annual +$347mil)
#akleg

This Week's Column| Proceeding with Phase 1 of the #AKLNG project should be conditioned on the project first securing firm, irrevocable customer commitments for Phase 2. Here’s why. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-two-observations

🤦 Those in the upper-income brackets, #NonRez & #OilCos love to see op-eds like this. They know the #akleg spending cuts will never happen, but that the discussion will continue to divert attention from developing substitute revenues that they would otherwise pay. https://alaskawatchman.com/2026/06/04/the-right-question-after-paying-a-full-pfd-how-can-alaska-fund-key-services-at-a-lower-cost/

🤔 Wake us when Bill Armstrong bids. That seems to be the current industry bellwether. #akleg https://www.adn.com/business-economy/energy/2026/06/05/oil-companies-continue-to-show-little-interest-in-arctic-refuge-drilling/

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | What who filed and who didn’t mean for Alaska’s future, the insights gleaned from LegFin’s FY26 & 27 budget summaries, & how some pushing #AKLNG tax reductions are cherry-picking their fiscal policy. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-612026

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 14.02% v PFC 6.71%
* 3-yr: S&P 22.64% v PFC 9.56%
* 1-yr: S&P 28.58% v PFC 14.40%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $18 (+$866mil)
> FY28-34 ⬆️ $9 (avg annual +$347mil)
#akleg

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg

First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $13), mid (⬆️ $10) & long-term (⬆️ $5) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).

Second, we chart revenues derived from that same market strip against those projected in the same 10-year rev f'cast. Projected FY26 ⬆️ $5.81//b (+$255mil UGF), FY26-36 avg $80 ($3.08B avg UGF, ⬆️ $370 mil v SPRING26 F'cast rev).

Sen. Elvi Gray-Jackson’s bill just cleared the Alaska Senate, but what happens next could matter more than the vote itself.
SB 41 now heads to the House, where key details about how mental health education would actually work in schools are still undecided.
What should Alaska schools be required to teach kids? 👀
👉🏿 https://tinyurl.com/3dx96s9j
#AlaskaNews #AKLeg #ElviGrayJackson #MentalHealth #Education #YouthWellbeing #Alaska #Students #StudentSuccess

The problem with Alaska's current #OilTax structure is that it's built on components that may make individual sense, but when stacked on top of each other, produce sub-optimal (less than Constitutional) results for the state. #akleg https://buff.ly/1sBmTN2

The core of any Alaska fiscal proposal is how it deals with the "free money" from PF earnings. PFD shares below 50/50 disproportionately benefit the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos over MIDDLE & lower-income (80% of) #AKfams. #akleg #plutocratic https://buff.ly/ZGoc6eJ

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$285mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $2 ($70mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$70mil)
#akleg

The most insidious #akleg position of the past decade -spread mainly by the Top20%- has been that PFDs are spending and PFDcuts are spending cuts. In fact, under current law, PFDs are income designated for #AKfams, and, by w/holding & diverting that income to govt, PFDcuts are taxes on that income.

ICYMI. This Wk's Alaska Landmine column| Despite being elected twice on a platform of protecting the PFD for all Alaskans, Gov. Dunleavy instead has been a major contributor to its demise. We explain how and who he has protected instead. #akleg https://buff.ly/JXU2wgG

At its core, Rep. Zack Fields' proposal to means-test the PFD is just another proposal to protect the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos from paying a proportionate share of the costs of increased spending by taxing middle and, by reducing the level, even lower-income #AKfams instead. #akleg https://buff.ly/hh5OTJg

Anyone know the story behind the last button? #AKLeg

Alaskans: Monday, 3/10, at 3:30PM, Senate Resources is taking invited and public testimony on SB108, Finfish Farms and Products. Stop by your local LIO to testify or call 844-586-9085 outside Juneau. #akleg #Alaska

🤔 Doing the math. Why isn't there a Fiscal Note yet for HB69 (Rep. Himschoot's BSA increase)? #WhatsTheProjectedCost #akleg

ALASKANS! AKLEG PSA: Wed, Jan. 29th, the House Education Committee is taking public testimony on HB69, raising the BSA, at 8:00AM and 5:00PM. Senate Education is taking testimony at 3:30 on the education funding crisis. Please go to your local LIO to testify or call 844-586-9085 outside Juneau/ANC. #akleg #Alaska

🙄 Persily with his periodic misdirect on behalf of the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos. As much as he repeats it, the problem 𝙞𝙨𝙣'𝙩 the PFD. It's the state's failure to develop equitable & low-impact revs. That's the #AKgov's failure. It's also Persily's. #akleg https://buff.ly/3Po1WBB

Not prioritized? #WorkingAKfams. #akleg

By failing to propose a more equitable revenue approach, Dunleavy continues the policy of using PFD cuts to fund growing govt spending from the pockets of middle & lower-income #AKfams, while letting the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos go scot-free. https://www.adn.com/opinions/2024/12/13/opinion-here-are-my-priorities-for-alaska-in-the-proposed-state-budget/

🙄 The "simple answer" is for govt to spend more ... funded by the #akleg disproportionately taking MUCH more out of the pockets (by using PFDcuts) of the very #WorkingAKfams that we are trying to retain/attract. So the theory is making them poorer will make them happier?? https://www.adn.com/opinions/2024/12/06/opinion-the-simple-answer-to-alaskas-outmigration-problem/

𝙁𝙖𝙘𝙩: Cutting PFDs to fund govt takes 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 $$ from mid & lower-income #AKfams than would taxes. The 𝙤𝙣𝙡𝙮 beneficiaries are the Top20%. https://bit.ly/3zoomJt

Those claiming to rep #WorkingAKfams but who knee-jerk "no taxes?" Puppets of Top20% plutocrats. #akleg

Oil: SB21 is working!! Don't touch #OilTaxes. #akleg

Reality: "Despite the significant increase in production levels, projected revenues from SB 21 production taxes go 𝙙𝙤𝙬𝙣 dramatically over [the next 10 years], plunging by 30%, from $940 million at the start to only $658 million by the end. Driven by that, overall unrestricted petroleum revenues also fall over the period, dropping from $2.43 billion at the beginning to $2.27 at the end."

https://alaskabeacon.com/2024/11/05/the-defense-of-alaska-oil-tax-law-is-seriously-misleading/

Wait, what? The "principles [of the new #akleg House Coalition] include not raising oil taxes ...." https://buff.ly/4fDsc5X

Meanwhile, "despite the significant increase in production levels, projected revenues from SB 21 production taxes go down dramatically over the [next ten years], plunging by 30%, from $940 million at the start to only $658 million by the end." https://buff.ly/4fxgCJv

Alaska Education Commissioner Deena Bishop got caught cheating on her homework. #akleg

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/education/2024/10/28/false-citations-show-alaska-education-official-relied-on-generative-ai-raising-broader-questions/

HelloAlaska! #akleg

https://helloalaska.pizza/podcast/089-november-elections/

🔁#Election2024 -Nov-5 Alaska At Large
Help Re-Elect MARY PELTOLA AK-AL

✅Donate: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dw_akal
✅Volunteer: https://www.mobilize.us/democratsworkforamerica/?org_ids=33800&show_all_events=true

#HarrisWalz2024 #KeepItBlue #WinBlue
#AKpol #AKpolitics #AKleg #AKdems #AK #AKAL
#Democrats #Independents #liberals
#DemsWork4USA

🔁#Election2024 -Nov-5 Alaska At Large
Help Re-Elect MARY PELTOLA AK-AL

✅Donate: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dw_akal
✅Volunteer: https://www.mobilize.us/democratsworkforamerica/?org_ids=33800&show_all_events=true

#HarrisWalz2024 #KeepItBlue #WinBlue
#AKpol #AKpolitics #AKleg #AKdems #AK #AKAL
#Democrats #Independents #liberals
#DemsWork4USA