#akleg — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #akleg, aggregated by home.social.
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June EIA STEO| "We forecast Brent will average around $105/b in June and July. Assuming Hormuz reopens in 3Q 2026, we assume oil prices will decrease to an average of $89/b by 4Q26, and gradually lower to an average of $79/b in 2027." #akleg https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
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Tax concessions MAY make #AKLNG competitive for export contracts. But it makes NO economic sense to proceed with Phase 1 without first ensuring those export contracts are signed. That puts Alaskans at risk of being stuck in a forever purgatory. #akleg https://alaskalandmine.com/landmines/brad-keithleys-chart-of-the-week-two-observations-on-aklng-part-1/
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The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$920mil)
> FY28-34 ⬆️ $9 (avg annual +$347mil)
#akleg -
This Wk's Top 3| Is what we've learned about #AKLNG enough to get it over the line, what does the continuing lack of interest in #ANWR tell us & most candidates seem oblivious to the signals coming from Alaska consumers. #akleg https://www.facebook.com/share/1KhFxZsu9T/
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This Week's Column| Proceeding with Phase 1 of the #AKLNG project should be conditioned on the project first securing firm, irrevocable customer commitments for Phase 2. Here’s why. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-two-observations
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"While Glenfarne’s proposed $16/Mcf price appears attractive in the current elevated market ... its attractiveness quickly fades as lower long-term oil prices and lower JKM levels increasingly dominate Asian LNG prices." #akleg https://buff.ly/v9KmsTa
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The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$920mil)
> FY28-34 ⬆️ $9 (avg annual +$347mil)
#akleg -
The Monday Chart| We are making changes to our Monday gas/LNG chart to reflect a sharpened focus on the issue. We have split the previous chart in two to focus separately on LNG exports and imports. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/changes-to-our-monday-gaslng-pricing
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This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | What who filed and who didn’t mean for Alaska’s future, the insights gleaned from LegFin’s FY26 & 27 budget summaries, & how some pushing #AKLNG tax reductions are cherry-picking their fiscal policy. #akleg https://buff.ly/mCI9mEC
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This Week's Column| Proceeding with Phase 1 of the #AKLNG project should be conditioned on the project first securing firm, irrevocable customer commitments for Phase 2. Here’s why. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-two-observations
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The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg
𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow two measures of inflation:
> First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1413787
PCE: up 50.0% (5.0%/yr)
CPI: up 26.2% (2.6%/yr)1/2
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The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 del, 2 headed to Asia (EM). #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 4
* Not in ANS service: 1 (CP) in maint
* Asia: 2 (EM)
* USWC: 8 (4 CP, 3 HIL, 1 MPC) -
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | What who filed and who didn’t mean for Alaska’s future, the insights gleaned from LegFin’s FY26 & 27 budget summaries, & how some pushing #AKLNG tax reductions are cherry-picking their fiscal policy. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-612026
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The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $113, ahead of both Brent (+$10.90) and Brent/WTI avg ($13.16). #akleg
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𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, we update the 10-year outlook for the most recent $$oil futures prices and other updated information (now using the #akleg enrolled budget for spending levels). Currently, the state is running an average annual 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙩 over the next 10-year period of $2.02 billion (30% of the UGF budget, ~4.7% of Alaska AGI, ~3.0% of Alaska Private Sector GDP).
2/4
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The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: https://bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg
1/4
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The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 93% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running 6% ⬆️ SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $81. #akleg
1/2
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The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $17 (+$813mil)
> FY28-34 ⬆️ $9 (avg annual +$347mil)
#akleg -
This Week's Column| Proceeding with Phase 1 of the #AKLNG project should be conditioned on the project first securing firm, irrevocable customer commitments for Phase 2. Here’s why. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-two-observations
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🤦 Those in the upper-income brackets, #NonRez & #OilCos love to see op-eds like this. They know the #akleg spending cuts will never happen, but that the discussion will continue to divert attention from developing substitute revenues that they would otherwise pay. https://alaskawatchman.com/2026/06/04/the-right-question-after-paying-a-full-pfd-how-can-alaska-fund-key-services-at-a-lower-cost/
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🤔 Wake us when Bill Armstrong bids. That seems to be the current industry bellwether. #akleg https://www.adn.com/business-economy/energy/2026/06/05/oil-companies-continue-to-show-little-interest-in-arctic-refuge-drilling/
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This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | What who filed and who didn’t mean for Alaska’s future, the insights gleaned from LegFin’s FY26 & 27 budget summaries, & how some pushing #AKLNG tax reductions are cherry-picking their fiscal policy. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-612026
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The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$263mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $18 (+$866mil)
> FY28-34 ⬆️ $9 (avg annual +$347mil)
#akleg -
The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg
First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $13), mid (⬆️ $10) & long-term (⬆️ $5) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).
Second, we chart revenues derived from that same market strip against those projected in the same 10-year rev f'cast. Projected FY26 ⬆️ $5.81//b (+$255mil UGF), FY26-36 avg $80 ($3.08B avg UGF, ⬆️ $370 mil v SPRING26 F'cast rev).