#williamspaniel — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #williamspaniel, aggregated by home.social.
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How Inequality is Fueling the Russian War Machine
by #WilliamSpaniel
09:33https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QG43SVv-lyc
How Russian inequality shapes Russia's military recruitment (which currently runs on voluntary contracts set to market wages), and how it dictates how the Kremlin pursues the war.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Do Russian Soldiers Only Survive 30 Minutes on Ukraine’s Frontline?
by #WilliamSpaniel
08:27https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rvdEw_Cd1M
There has been a rush of claims that the average Russian soldier only survives for 30 minutes on the frontlines in Ukraine: what is the plausibility of that claim.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Why Russia’s Gasoline Problem Is Even Worse Than It Seems
by #WilliamSpaniel
15:36https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJqeH3zW24o
Something subtle is happening with gas prices in Russia. Yes, Ukraine's massive refinery campaign is causing supply shocks. But there is an underappreciated global problem occurring simultaneously.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Ultimatum Issued. Now Will Ukraine Attack Belarus?
by #WilliamSpaniel
16:33https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O27B1ggPq6A
Zelensky issued an ultimatum to Belarus: remove Russian military assets from your country, or we will remove them for you: what exactly Ukraine is trying to do.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Men or Materiel? Inside Russia’s Response Dilemma
by #WilliamSpaniel
09:06https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7fRO49XaSs
Ukraine is driving in Zaporizhzhia. But why?
Does Russia get the correct intelligence to answer the question, and does it filter up the powers that be in the Kremlin?
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Crawling in the Dark: Russia's Desperate Gamble for a Ukrainian City
by #WilliamSpaniel
14:59https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7o3AzU4XcRg
The Battle of #Kupiansk may be the most absurd battle of the war so far: how Russia pursued the battle, the vulnerabilities that Ukraine faced, and how an open salient ultimately forced Russia out of the city.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Ukraine’s Summer Offensive: Real or Wishful Thinking?
by #WilliamSpaniel
10:21https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37NE5V6aJbU
The possibility of a summer offensive for Ukraine: what would be necessary for that to work and the deeper implications if the conditions indeed hold.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Is Russia Turning Into a Military Dictatorship?
by #WilliamSpaniel
09:13https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCdfoZPyyCc
Russia's war effort has put its oligarch class at a significant disadvantage, while the role of Russia's security forces in maintaining domestic order has increased.
What that says about the broader war effort?
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
How Ukraine Reversed Russia’s 18 Month Long Offensive
by #WilliamSpaniel
16:07https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdAeb6gpk0Y
For more than a year and a half, Russia was on the offensive. Then something happened in March of this year. The net gains … just stopped.
Something has actually changed. The question is what.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Russia Bombed a Romanian Apartment Building. Here’s How NATO Should Respond
by #WilliamSpaniel
12:04https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZplX9eKnYps
Understanding NATO's strategy, how the first countermeasures are already in place, and what more could be done to further shore up the Eastern Flank.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Why Does Russia Keep Bombing Civilians?
by #WilliamSpaniel
08:44https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOFA83O0O0k
Russia continues to bomb civilian targets inside of Ukraine. Why? The answer may seem obvious---they are at war---but it gets increasingly complicated as you think more about it.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
When Will Putin Finally Realize the War Won’t Work?
by #WilliamSpaniel
09:43https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aw0bT-xXErM
Ukraine has at least halted Russia's long-term offensive, if not reversed it. If this is a sign of things to come, when will the Kremlin accept the reality of the situation and adjust its political position on the war's end?
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
When Will the Protests Start in Russia?
by #WilliamSpaniel
13:57https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbxlbARt-3E
The situation in Russia is getting worse. So when will protestors make it out on the streets. Or, alternatively, why haven't they already?
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
The Tricky Timing of the Fall of Putin
by #WilliamSpaniel
13:57https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JH9GXmVQ7RE
Why the timing of a potential Putin departure might matter: Ukraine's ability to return to its pre-invasion borders depends both on who might follow Putin in office and who is currently president of the United States.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Why Russia’s Recession Won’t Revive Recruitment Rates
by #WilliamSpaniel
09:32https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE3_BHG2yCM
Russia’s economy has hit a recession. (Kind of.) With the Kremlin simultaneously having its cash well run dry, this would seem to have an even worse effect on recruitment rates.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Eight Reasons for Cautious Optimism in Ukraine
by #WilliamSpaniel
11:20https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCLqJAQK7Cg
PUTIN IS DONE is clickbait, but the situation is not looking great for Russia at the moment: a serious case for why Ukraine should be cautiously optimistic at the moment.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Damage Already Done: Zelensky Permits Putin to Put on a Parade
by #WilliamSpaniel
10:28https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFqkpybMrio
Today, Russia held its annual Victory Day parade ---but only because Ukraine let it: the background behind today's ceasefire, why it was credible, and how Ukraine won the battle in the days before the ceasefire began
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Do Territorial Concessions Beget Territorial Concessions?
by #WilliamSpaniel
14:14https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90d1dTTiXIc
Today's video examines a problem known as "bargaining over objects that influence future bargaining power."
If I make a territorial concession today, does that make my opponent better able to defeat me in a war tomorrow?
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Inside Ukraine’s Victory Day Strike Plan
by #WilliamSpaniel
15:04https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds9yUBjAf8w
Russia's annual Victory Day Parade is scheduled on May 9: Ukraine's strategy for the parade, and what may or may not happen in the next few days.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
How Ukraine Is Having Its Way With Russian Air Defenses
by #WilliamSpaniel
14:32https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pK5M26vVhk
Ukraine is seemingly having its way with Russian air defenses, imposing "long-range sanctions" multiple times per week: the structural problems that Russia is having and that Ukraine is taking advantage of.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Is Russia at a Breaking Point?
by #WilliamSpaniel
15:53https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Is8pyNyGgS4
What is happening inside of Russia, and how that might affect what will happen to Ukraine?
How accurate the "PUTIN IS DONE" and "RUSSIA IS BROKEN" narratives are.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Russia's Arsenal After Ukraine: Will There Be Anything Left?
by #WilliamSpaniel
10:18https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNaroaeplZA
Suppose that the Kremlin could mobilize popular domestic support for a war with Europe.
Does any of that matter if Russia has no armaments left?
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
How Ukraine Paralyzed 40% of Russia’s Oil Export Industry
by #WilliamSpaniel
15:56https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22xorEtdHBM
Ukraine has disabled about 40% of Russia's oil terminal capacity: what Ukraine must do for the campaign to continue to succeed.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Ukraine’s Refinery Campaign: The Math Shows Whether PUTIN IS DONE
by #WilliamSpaniel
15:01https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7M1szU1Zn8
Ukraine's campaign to disable Russian oil refineries is well known: how much it will restrict future Russian military actions, and how those figures might change as the parties evolve their tactics.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
The Real Security Guarantees Ukraine Needs
by #WilliamSpaniel
16:36https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeQcOrsWjWQ
Why Ukraine keeps seeking a U.S. guarantee, why getting one is not simple, and how Europe can use its institutional rules to manufacture a U.S. commitment out of thin air.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Did Ukraine Just Effectively Disable a Third of Russia’s Shadow Fleet in One Strike?
by #WilliamSpaniel
09:24https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JzbeT9HzyI
Ukraine struck Russia's shadow fleet in the Mediterranean Sea: back-of-the-envelope calculations show that if Russia abandons taking the Suez Canal, Russia loses between 27% and 37% of its fleet
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
How Ukraine Recaptured a Key Frontline City
by #WilliamSpaniel
11:10https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UmUV5ML9UI
After weeks of Russia claiming firm control over #Kupiansk, Ukraine counterattacked and ejected Russian troops from the city: how Ukraine did it, the propaganda surrounding the battle, and what might happen next in the area.
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory -
Why the Witkoff Leak Is Way Worse Than It Seems
by #WilliamSpaniel
16:46https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdjU14Lt_iw
Bloomberg released a transcript of a phone call between #SteveWitkoff and #YuriUshakov, two of the US and Russia main negotiators
#Witkoff offers advice on how #Putin could best broach the subject of a peace agreement with #Trump
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William Spaniel is professor at the University of Pittsburgh. He makes research on war, nuclear security and game theory