#weakestformofinference — Public Fediverse posts

Deduction is such a powerful tool.

Right?

Right?!?

Indeed it is.

Picture this scenario.
You are a detective who has become stranded in a small secluded community, just as a wave of murders begin.
This might seem odd to you (the reader), but that's because you're using your stupid inductive brain. Turn that shit off. From now on You are the deductive detective, not the reader.

In deductive brain, nothing is ever normal, expected or unexpected.
Every event is simultaneously unprecedented and inevitable, because deduction has no way of tracking precedence or likelihood.

You are so blessed, deductive detective (should I call you Deductive, perhaps?).

Anyway, you are currently tracking a murderer. Well, you would be, but you have gotten hopelessly lost in the very small community, because you have no way of learning its layout.
A paltry price to pay for your amazing purely deductive Powers.

Anyway, in an unprecedented and inevitable occurrence, you stumble upon the Baker stabbing the Cartwright, in exactly the same method as the previous murders.

Unfortunately, your deductive powers tell you that you can't conclude anything from this, because there is no particular reason to think this community has only one murderer, or indeed that the murders were not all simple unprecedented and inevitable coincidences, carried out by different people in coincidentally similar manner.
You also have no reason to think a person who has murdered once might murder again, so you step out into the light to chat with the initially surprised Baker.

The end.

#microfiction #Deduction #DeductionIsAJoke #WeakestFormOfInference