#selectiveupdating — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #selectiveupdating, aggregated by home.social.
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"Quantifiable risk belongs to the casino, the mortality table, and the actuarial ledger. It describes a world where the outcome of an event is unknown, but historical data exists to support a probability estimate. Because the boundaries of the system are fixed, we can use historical data to calculate numerical odds.
Knightian uncertainty, by contrast, considers the unprecedented. It arises when a situation, like climate change, is so novel or complex that history offers no guide. We are pushing the biosphere far outside its Holocene baseline, entering an environment where the variables themselves are changing, and the models used to project future outcomes break down."
Why We're Blind to Civilizational Collapse
by Sarah Connor
July 8th, 2026https://collapse2050.substack.com/p/why-were-blind-to-civilizational
#ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #CollapseAware #polycrisis #DisasterPreparedness #CognitiveBias #LogicalFallacy #SelectiveUpdating #Sociology #HumanPsychology
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"Quantifiable risk belongs to the casino, the mortality table, and the actuarial ledger. It describes a world where the outcome of an event is unknown, but historical data exists to support a probability estimate. Because the boundaries of the system are fixed, we can use historical data to calculate numerical odds.
Knightian uncertainty, by contrast, considers the unprecedented. It arises when a situation, like climate change, is so novel or complex that history offers no guide. We are pushing the biosphere far outside its Holocene baseline, entering an environment where the variables themselves are changing, and the models used to project future outcomes break down."
Why We're Blind to Civilizational Collapse
by Sarah Connor
July 8th, 2026https://collapse2050.substack.com/p/why-were-blind-to-civilizational
#ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #CollapseAware #polycrisis #DisasterPreparedness #CognitiveBias #LogicalFallacy #SelectiveUpdating #Sociology #HumanPsychology
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"Quantifiable risk belongs to the casino, the mortality table, and the actuarial ledger. It describes a world where the outcome of an event is unknown, but historical data exists to support a probability estimate. Because the boundaries of the system are fixed, we can use historical data to calculate numerical odds.
Knightian uncertainty, by contrast, considers the unprecedented. It arises when a situation, like climate change, is so novel or complex that history offers no guide. We are pushing the biosphere far outside its Holocene baseline, entering an environment where the variables themselves are changing, and the models used to project future outcomes break down."
Why We're Blind to Civilizational Collapse
by Sarah Connor
July 8th, 2026https://collapse2050.substack.com/p/why-were-blind-to-civilizational
#ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #CollapseAware #polycrisis #DisasterPreparedness #CognitiveBias #LogicalFallacy #SelectiveUpdating #Sociology #HumanPsychology
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"Quantifiable risk belongs to the casino, the mortality table, and the actuarial ledger. It describes a world where the outcome of an event is unknown, but historical data exists to support a probability estimate. Because the boundaries of the system are fixed, we can use historical data to calculate numerical odds.
Knightian uncertainty, by contrast, considers the unprecedented. It arises when a situation, like climate change, is so novel or complex that history offers no guide. We are pushing the biosphere far outside its Holocene baseline, entering an environment where the variables themselves are changing, and the models used to project future outcomes break down."
Why We're Blind to Civilizational Collapse
by Sarah Connor
July 8th, 2026https://collapse2050.substack.com/p/why-were-blind-to-civilizational
#ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #CollapseAware #polycrisis #DisasterPreparedness #CognitiveBias #LogicalFallacy #SelectiveUpdating #Sociology #HumanPsychology
-
"Quantifiable risk belongs to the casino, the mortality table, and the actuarial ledger. It describes a world where the outcome of an event is unknown, but historical data exists to support a probability estimate. Because the boundaries of the system are fixed, we can use historical data to calculate numerical odds.
Knightian uncertainty, by contrast, considers the unprecedented. It arises when a situation, like climate change, is so novel or complex that history offers no guide. We are pushing the biosphere far outside its Holocene baseline, entering an environment where the variables themselves are changing, and the models used to project future outcomes break down."
Why We're Blind to Civilizational Collapse
by Sarah Connor
July 8th, 2026https://collapse2050.substack.com/p/why-were-blind-to-civilizational
#ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #CollapseAware #polycrisis #DisasterPreparedness #CognitiveBias #LogicalFallacy #SelectiveUpdating #Sociology #HumanPsychology