#phillipspobrien — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #phillipspobrien, aggregated by home.social.
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“This is arguably the most important week in European history since 1991 or even 1945. It is conceivable that the NATO alliance is breaking down in front of our eyes“ #PhillipsPOBrien https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/weekend-update120-the-us-changes
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“This is arguably the most important week in European history since 1991 or even 1945. It is conceivable that the NATO alliance is breaking down in front of our eyes“ #PhillipsPOBrien https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/weekend-update120-the-us-changes
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How Defense Experts Got Ukraine Wrong : On questions of war and peace, governments must hear from many types of experts by #EliotACohen & #PhillipsPOBrien . The Atlantic.
"... the Russian military was not a somewhat smaller and less effective version of America’s. It was a brutal, deeply flawed, and altogether inferior armed force."
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@martinvermeer I must admit I haven't read the study. I am in the middle of viewing the recording of the in-person launch of the report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPBUjcncQ40
Vietnam. From what I hear from #PhillipsPOBrien and #EliotACohen - my experts 🙂 - it seems to me there was not that major analytical blunder before the war. Something like all experts agreeing that the war with Vietnam will be won in three days. I don't know 🤷
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@martinvermeer I must admit I haven't read the study. I am in the middle of viewing the recording of the in-person launch of the report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPBUjcncQ40
Vietnam. From what I hear from #PhillipsPOBrien and #EliotACohen - my experts 🙂 - it seems to me there was not that major analytical blunder before the war. Something like all experts agreeing that the war with Vietnam will be won in three days. I don't know 🤷
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[#CSIS] "The Russia-Ukraine War and a Study in Analytic Failure"
With Dr. Eliot A. Cohen, Dr. Phillips O’Brien (CSIS), Dr. Kimberly Kagan (ISW) and Gian Gentile (Colonel (Ret); RAND).
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#PhillipsPOBrien : Russia has actually not won a war against a major power for 200 years—except for the Ottoman Empire... list covering much of the last 200 years
Russia. Crimean war (lost)
Russo-Japanese War (lost)
World War I (catastrophic loss)
Then USSR
Soviet-Polish (lost)
Winter War (partial victory over small power, sorry Finland)
World War II, wins as part of coalition
Cold War (lost)
Afghanistan (lost)
Then Russia again. No victories over major powers. -
#PhillipsPOBrien : Russia has actually not won a war against a major power for 200 years—except for the Ottoman Empire... list covering much of the last 200 years
Russia. Crimean war (lost)
Russo-Japanese War (lost)
World War I (catastrophic loss)
Then USSR
Soviet-Polish (lost)
Winter War (partial victory over small power, sorry Finland)
World War II, wins as part of coalition
Cold War (lost)
Afghanistan (lost)
Then Russia again. No victories over major powers. -
[#CSIS] NEW REPORT | #EliotACohen and #PhillipsPOBrien reviewed 181 pieces of research and analysis from think tanks, media outlets, and other sources to comprehensively examine the flawed pre-war assessments of the Russia-Ukraine military balance.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-ukraine-war-study-analytic-failure
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Phillips P. O’Brien: "The new red line: Why a prolonged conflict in Ukraine makes a nuclear attack more likely"
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#PhillipsPOBrien & #EdwardStringer : Planning for a Post-American NATO: Europe Must Prepare for a Second Trump Term
"European countries have essentially outsourced geopolitical leadership to the United States for the last 75 years or so... Time is a precious commodity in war. And today, with a war on its doorstep and the United States threatening to push European security to its most precarious point in decades, the continent is wasting it."
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#Ukraine Episode 21: Donbas and Kursk by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov #podcast 32 min
"We start with a detailed discussion of what is happening on the battlefield. We move first from the Donbas and then to the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/episode-21-donbas-and-kursk
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#PhillipsPOBrien Ukraine Was Biding Its Time: While outside analysts downplayed their chances, the Ukrainians were quietly planning an offensive across the Russian border. The Atlantic.
" 🇺🇦 forces had entered 🇷🇺 #Kursk province... The... offensive shows what 🇺🇦 can achieve if they have both the tools and the latitude to fight 🇷🇺... allies’ apprehension about taking the war to Russian territory [had] provided 🇷🇺 with a major asymmetrical advantage... "
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Ukraine Weekend Update 93
"The fact that the Russians have not had many troops on their border seems to be a direct result of US pressure on Ukraine not to launch attacks into Russia itself [...]. However up until now this has handed a huge amount of the initiative to Russia. They could choose when and where to attack Ukraine from Russia [...], and didn’t have to use many troops defending their own border (an amazing thing in war). "
https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/weekend-update-93-the-kursk-offensive
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Ukraine Weekend Update 93
"The fact that the Russians have not had many troops on their border seems to be a direct result of US pressure on Ukraine not to launch attacks into Russia itself [...]. However up until now this has handed a huge amount of the initiative to Russia. They could choose when and where to attack Ukraine from Russia [...], and didn’t have to use many troops defending their own border (an amazing thing in war). "
https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/weekend-update-93-the-kursk-offensive
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"Hello All, Phillips and Mykola and back with our latest episode. The biggest story of the last few days was definitely the Ukrainian offensive into Russia. We discuss the latest news and what we think is important about it. We also compare it to the doom-laden analysis that much of the press has had about the Donbas."
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#PhillipsPOBrien : The Final Six Months of U.S. Aid for Ukraine: If Trump wins, Kyiv’s cause is in danger. Biden must prepare for that possibility.
"The administration could try to Trump-proof Ukraine specifically, and help Europe in general, in three different ways."
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#Ukraine Episode 17: Mykola Meets With Ukrainian Intelligence by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov #podcast 32 min.
"We start this one with a description (within limits) of Mykola's experience attending a briefing session with 🇺🇦 intelligence. Then we discuss the situation on the front line, particularly the #Donbas and 🇷🇺 #Kharkiv Offensive. Finally some (not terribly enthusiastic) discussion of the recent security agreements that have been offered to 🇺🇦."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/episode-17-mykola-meets-with-ukrainian
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#Ukraine Episode 16: The Biden Administration Allows Ukraine to Attack Into Russia (Finally): Also: Mykola's Strategy for a Ukrainian Victory by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov #podcast 31 min.
"...the decision by the Biden Administration to allow 🇺🇦 (to a limited degree) to fire into Russia. We discuss how its taken so long, what it might do, and 🇺🇦 opinion on the matter... 🇺🇦 strategy going forward in the war, and in particular this article by Mykola, in which..."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/episode-16-the-biden-administration
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#Ukraine Episode 15: The Russian Kharkiv Offensive: Plus: The ranged-war and US policy towards Ukraine. by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov #podcast 31 min.
"... the developments since May 10, when the 🇷🇺 offensive towards #Kharkiv commenced... the ranged campaign... 🇺🇦 attacks in Crimea and against 🇷🇺 oil refineries... 🇺🇸 policy of forbidding... to attack military targets in 🇷🇺 . This is making the war longer, bloodier and more difficult for 🇺🇦 ."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/episode-15-the-russian-kharkiv-offensive
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#PhillipsPOBrien on current state of US coverage of the russian war on Ukraine.
Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/weekend-update-81-much-of-the-portrayed
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@Peternimmo For me, #PhillipsPOBrien is the authority on the war assessment. His free Weekend Updates ( https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/ ) is the only source one really must follow. If anybody shares his paid pieces on Substack with me, it would be nice 🙂
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#Ukraine Episode 13: US Aid is (finally) about to be approved by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov. #podcast 32 min.
"... the situation on the battlefield and the continuation of Ukraine's growing ranged campaign against Russia--this time with ATACMs seemingly used on targets in Crimea."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/episode-13-us-aid-is-finally-about
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#Ukraine Episode 12: Ukraine's Strategic Air War--which the US wants to stop: Also, More Ukrainian Strategic Changes and the Situation on the Battlefield by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov. #podcast 34 min.
"... detailed discussion of the Ukrainian strategic air campaign, particularly against Russian fuel... then segway into a discussion of the US government (bizarrely) asking Ukraine to stop it... changes at the top of the Ukrainian national security tree..."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/episode-12-ukraines-strategic-air
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#Ukraine Episode 11: Europe Seems to be Waking Up: Also: Two problematic stories and the situation on the battlefield by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov
"... a detailed discussion of the outside world, in particular focussing on the important change in tone coming from Europe over the last 2 weeks... Macron seems to have had a conversion... we survey the battlefield. Ukrainian lines are holding with very little ammunition."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/episode-11-europe-seems-to-be-waking #podcast
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Chancellor Scholz Must Change Course and Support #Ukraine to Win. An Open Letter to Germany’s Leaders from International and German Experts by #BenjaminTallis #RalfFücks #MaximilianTerhalle
"Chancellor Olaf Scholz is putting Germans and all Europeans in danger. His current policy seriously risks defeat in Ukraine, which would embolden Moscow and raise the likelihood of a wider war with Russia..."
Add your signature to the 🧵 .
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/03/14/chancellor-scholz-must-change-course-and-support-ukraine-to-win/
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Chancellor Scholz Must Change Course and Support #Ukraine to Win. An Open Letter to Germany’s Leaders from International and German Experts by #BenjaminTallis #RalfFücks #MaximilianTerhalle
"Chancellor Olaf Scholz is putting Germans and all Europeans in danger. His current policy seriously risks defeat in Ukraine, which would embolden Moscow and raise the likelihood of a wider war with Russia..."
Add your signature to the 🧵 .
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/03/14/chancellor-scholz-must-change-course-and-support-ukraine-to-win/
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#PhillipsPOBrien https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/what-europe-must-do-now-in-10-steps #GeoEU Will anybody unlock it for me? 🙂
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What Happens to Europe If America Withdraws? If the United States turns its back on its best allies, Europe will face the Russian threat alone by #PhillipsPOBrien
"If states like Poland and the Baltics feel Western Europeans have sacrificed Ukraine... they might decide to aid Ukraine on their own—precisely when the Russian Army has been weakened. This might guarantee a Ukrainian victory, but it also might... cause a crisis within the EU..."
https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/what-happens-europe-after-america-ukraine
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#Ukraine Episode 7: How is Active Defense working for Ukraine. Also: UK defense commitments, and Mykola's paper, Needles for a Porcupine by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov
"... the status of the fighting including 🇺🇦 shooting down of the A 50... 🇬🇧 defense commitments to 🇺🇦... one of Mykola’s papers on Ukrainian defense, Needles for a Porcupine, which you can download on the Come Back Alive website."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/episode-7-how-is-active-defense-working #podcast
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@the_roamer https://mastodonapp.uk/@the_roamer/111708567060767457 wrote:
> #PhillipsPOBrien is one of the voices... Masterful independent analyses of the 🇺🇦 war. So sorry he did not move to Mastodon. Good that you link to his blog.
> @mybarkingdogs https://mastodon.sdf.org/@mybarkingdogs/111708654907583346 wrote:
> I just wish #PhillipsPOBrien'd leave substack. I like the coverage but unboosted for this reason...@josefulehla is just for tooting, I take the converesation here:
Well, difficult decisions. For me, for now, #PhillpsPOBrien's (and #TimothySnyder's!) voices are so important that I promote them even though they use evil platforms 🤷
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Phillips O'Brien is one of the voices that made the old twitter valuable. Masterful independent analyses of the Ukrainian war. So sorry he did not move to Mastodon. Good that you link to his blog.
Edit: spelling of O'Brien corrected!
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Phillips O'Brien is one of the voices that made the old twitter valuable. Masterful independent analyses of the Ukrainian war. So sorry he did not move to Mastodon. Good that you link to his blog.
Edit: spelling of O'Brien corrected!
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#Ukraine Russia War Talk: Episode 5 by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov
"... the situation on the front line, in particular the Russian offensive against Avdiivka... the different options for Ukraine's strategy in 2024... the relative success of Ukrainian air defense this winter compared to last..."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/episode-5-the-front-line-ukrainian #podcast
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#Ukraine Russia War Talk: Episode 4 by #PhillipsPOBrien & #MykolaBielieskov
"This week we survey the battlefield, discuss some of the most well-known stories on the war, and discuss the shocking prospect of the US cutting aid to Ukraine."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/ukraine-russia-war-talk-episode-4