#elorating — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #elorating, aggregated by home.social.
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From Bioreactors to Brier Scores: Building Model90, a Football Prediction Engine
What happens when a bioreactor engineer points his state-estimation toolkit at football. Model90 is a statistical forecasting engine for the 2026 World Cup and the major leagues, built on Dixon-Coles Poisson, Elo, xG and a calibrated meta-model. An honest look at how it works and what its Brier score really means.https://kemal.yaylali.uk/model90-football-prediction-engine/
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From Bioreactors to Brier Scores: Building Model90, a Football Prediction Engine
What happens when a bioreactor engineer points his state-estimation toolkit at football. Model90 is a statistical forecasting engine for the 2026 World Cup and the major leagues, built on Dixon-Coles Poisson, Elo, xG and a calibrated meta-model. An honest look at how it works and what its Brier score really means.https://kemal.yaylali.uk/model90-football-prediction-engine/
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I love learning to play games semi competitively. 2021, I learnt #sudoku and hit a point where even the hardest challenges on #NYT took a max of 15 minutes. This year I’ve started playing #chess.
After multiple rounds of calibration I figure my #EloRating is somewhere between 600 and 660. Going to set goals of increasing a 100 at a time. So first stop is to be stable at a 750-ish rating. My guess is that it’ll take a month before I see the improvements.
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I love learning to play games semi competitively. 2021, I learnt #sudoku and hit a point where even the hardest challenges on #NYT took a max of 15 minutes. This year I’ve started playing #chess.
After multiple rounds of calibration I figure my #EloRating is somewhere between 600 and 660. Going to set goals of increasing a 100 at a time. So first stop is to be stable at a 750-ish rating. My guess is that it’ll take a month before I see the improvements.