#bubblewatch — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #bubblewatch, aggregated by home.social.
-
#bubblewatch update:
Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…
> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926
The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…
-
#bubblewatch update:
Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…
> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926
The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…
-
#bubblewatch update:
Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…
> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926
The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…
-
#bubblewatch update:
Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…
> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926
The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…
-
#bubblewatch update:
Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…
> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926
The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…
-
#bubblewatch update:
Some #AI #bubble weekend reading for you.
> Is the AI bubble about to burst, or is it recalibrating? Massive investment is flowing into AI, but rising costs and inconsistent returns are testing whether the boom is sustainable and can deliver long-term business value. https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/feature/Is-the-AI-bubble-about-to-burst-or-is-it-recalibrating
> A famed permabear says a pattern forming in markets shows how the stock bubble could ultimately burst. https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-bubble-burst-pattern-outlook-john-hussman-government-debt-2026-4
-
#bubblewatch update:
Churn from the Iran war and energy markets aside, the #AI #bubble is still there and the question of eventual profitability has not gone away.
> Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower on renewed AI growth worries ahead of big tech earnings. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-fall-middle-east-stalemate-keeps-oil-risks-focus-2026-04-28/
This week it's the big players on deck:
> First-quarter earnings season shifts into overdrive this week, with five of the companies in the Magnificent Seven group of AI-related megacap firms expected to post results.
-
#bubblewatch update:
One of the early #AI VCs says it's nearly time to cash out.
> The AI boom won't last, a top VC warns, as he urges startups to cash out. https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-startup-founders-warning-elad-gilsell-while-boom-lasts-2026-4
> "In the AI era, most companies, including those that are ramping revenue today, will see the market, competition, and adoption, turn on them."
> For founders, that creates a narrow window. Selling or merging while valuations remain high could maximize returns before conditions shift.
-
#bubblewatch update:
The market is still flailing wildly from the Iran war, but at least we are starting to get a little more high-level attention to the #AI #bubble.
> Warren draws ‘parallels’ between AI ‘bubble’ and financial crisis. https://thehill.com/business/5846721-warren-ai-debt-risk-crash/
> “The parallels to the 2008 financial crisis are striking: the reckless behavior of a few billionaires and Big Tech CEOs has turned a promising technology into a structural risk to our financial system…”
-
Because of these weird market dynamics and because the goal of #bubblewatch is to see if I can capture the moment the #AI #bubble is punctured, I see no value in wasting my time talking about an irrational market driven by non-AI forces.
Still, couldn't an irrational market puncture the bubble as a side effect? Certainly! And I'll be looking for such market moves and will update this thread if I the see signs, along with any other related AI news.
But the daily recap is on hold.
[fin]
-
Tuesday 4-14 #bubblewatch *suspended*
After much consideration – and today's publication of the following article – I am suspending daily bubblewatch market recaps.
> War is over for Wall Street, while oil drags down bonds and gold. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/war-is-over-wall-street-while-oil-drags-down-bonds-gold-2026-04-14/
I mean, to begin with? The war is *not over*. This is just more of the market going by vibes and not rational thinking. Moreover, this was true since the war started and will likely continue to be true for the foreseeable future.
[contd]
-
Monday 4-13 #bubblewatch
Stocks mixed again today, oil prices up. The triumph of hope and manipulation over cold reality continues.
> Wall Street indexes gain as investors hold out hope for US-Iran resolution. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-drop-after-us-iran-peace-talks-fail-2026-04-13/
Again I feel like I should suspend bubblewatch until the market starts acting with a minimal degree of rationality. None of the market moves for the last two plus weeks have made sense or been meaningful.
-
Friday 4-10 #bubblewatch
In February and March we had a six-week long downturn which nearly brought the market into 'Correction' territory. Then the Iran war upended the table and the market has been scrambling back and forth as the Whitehouse lies and reality disproves them. Today is more of the same:
> Wall St mixed, set for weekly gains as investors watch Middle East negotiations. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-subdued-ahead-inflation-data-mideast-focus-2026-04-10/
Maybe we should just lean back and enjoy the rollercoaster ride?
-
Thursday 4-09 #bubblewatch
The headline says 'ends higher' and it's mostly true. But, in fact, it is 'barely higher' and some indexes are losers – it should read 'mixed'.
> Wall Street ends higher as Middle East peace talks lift sentiment. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-over-shaky-mideast-truce-inflation-focus-2026-04-09/
Since the USA Administration is continuing to pretend the ceasefire is operational, despite both Iran and Israel violating it and no ships through the Strait, apparently the market has decided to go along and pretend as well.
-
Wednesday 4-08 #bubblewatch
The market went completely nuts today, with huge gains; all predicated on the announcement of a ceasefire in the #Iran war.
> Wall Street ends sharply higher on US-Iran ceasefire. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-jump-relief-middle-east-ceasefire-2026-04-08/
Given the ceasefire is already being violated it seems possible we might see an equivalent crash tomorrow. Especially if there is another deranged Truth Social rant overnight.
All this is making it hard to separate out #AI #bubble action from general market crazy.
-
Tuesday 4-07 #bubblewatch
Today (and finally), Trump's threats to 'destroy an entire civilization' have reversed the market's recent gains.
> Wall Street off session lows as Trump's Iran deadline looms. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-inch-lower-investors-assess-mideast-developments-2026-04-07/
Meanwhile oil prices continue to rise.
-
Monday 4-06 #bubblewatch
Stock market mixed today, but even the gainers aren't gaining much.
> Equities gain, oil settles higher as investors watch US-Iran standoff. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-04-06/
Surprisingly the Orange One's Easter 'mad king' outburst hasn't sent the market into a tailspin. Meanwhile the dollar is tanking and oil prices continue to rise.
-
Friday 4-03 #bubblewatch
I was busy and didn't update bubblewatch yesterday. So this is a catch-up. But nothing really new to report anyway.
Note: I'm using Reuters for the recap, it's free to read again.
> Wall St Week Ahead Inflation in focus for markets jostled by Middle East war signals. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wall-st-week-ahead-inflation-focus-markets-jostled-by-middle-east-war-signals-2026-04-03/
So, where are we now?
IDX Week Month
Dow +2.86% -4.12%
NASDAQ +2.20% -3.82%
S&P +3.36% -3.43%
FTSE +4.70% -0.46% -
Thursday 4-02 #bubblewatch
NOTE: Reuters is now requiring a subscription, so I'm switching to CNN for the daily market recap.
This is the first week in the last month and a half which ended up, theoretically breaking the down streak. That said, the irrational exuberance of earlier in the week has ended, with today a bit more restrained.
> Stocks are volatile, oil soars as Trump rattles markets with lack of clear exit plan. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/investing/us-stocks-iran
Oil prices are up.
-
Also? here's some quick #bubblewatch reading for you!
> US financial advisors brace for growing array of risks in second quarter. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-financial-advisors-brace-growing-array-risks-second-quarter-2026-04-01/
-
Wednesday 4-01 #bubblewatch
I guess this is an appropriate day for the market to show us how easily it is fooled.
> Wall Street ends higher on speculation about end to Iran war. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-climb-iran-war-de-escalation-optimism-lifts-sentiment-2026-04-01/
That said? They aren't all fooled. Values didn't jump near as much as they did yesterday. Yesterday's USA Jobs Report may have something to do with that.
FWIW? CNN's 'Fear and Greed Index' is still firmly stuck in 'Extreme Fear'. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
-
Tuesday 3-31 #bubblewatch
Days like today I don't even want to post a bubblewatch. Not because the market is doing something I think is incredibly stupid (it is), but because it's meaningless in the long run and I fully expect a reversal within days.
But anyway? They are back to believing the lies about Iran again…
> Trading Day: Q1 ends with a BANG! https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-03-31/
FWIW? Values are mostly still down for the week and entirely down for the month.
-
Monday 3-30 #bubblewatch
Looks like Trump is finally losing credibility with the market, as today's Iran War lies failed to cause a rally and only reduced the losses a bit.
> S&P 500, Nasdaq ease as investors weigh Middle East conflict outlook. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-stock-futures-edge-up-after-selloff-mideast-conflict-remains-focus-2026-03-30/
> "When the messages seem good, *to the extent they are believed*, it helps the market. If something they say implies a more aggressive approach, the market sells off." [emphasis added]
-
Friday 3-27 #bubblewatch
As we start the seventh straight week of market downturn the monthly value changes are inching ever closer to that magic 10% 'Market Correction' number.
> Stocks stumble to lowest levels in over six months as Middle East tensions weigh. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-subdued-iran-strike-delay-offers-limited-relief-2026-03-27/
So, where are we now?
IDX Week Month
Dow -0.88% -7.77%
NASDAQ -3.18% -7.54%
S&P -2.03% -7.35%
FTSE +0.49% -8.64% -
Thursday 3-26 #bubblewatch
And, as I expected, despite Trump goosing the market for a few days with a volley of lies the sixth week of the market downturn still ended down overall. Tech stocks took the biggest bath today, but all indexes are down for the day and for the week.
> Trading Day: Sell everything (except oil). https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-03-26/
(FWIW: The market downturn started on a Friday a month and a half ago, so I'm counting the weeks as Friday to Thursday.)
-
Wednesday 3-25 #bubblewatch
Today, again, they are believing the lies. It's entirely possible I will be wrong and they will also believe the lies tomorrow, in which case the market might break it's (going on six weeks) downturn.
> Wall Street advances as investors bet on Mideast de-escalation. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-mideast-ceasefire-prospects-lift-sentiment-2026-03-25/
Mind you, the indexes are not up *much*. Only finance stocks saw more than a 1% jump and the overall trend over the last week and month is still losses.
-
Tuesday 3-24 #bubblewatch
More of the rollercoaster ride today.
> Wall Street indexes mixed on rising yields, worries about Middle East war. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-middle-east-uncertainty-tempers-relief-rally-2026-03-24/
Bonus stagflation mention:
> "It's sort of this double whammy that we've been in for the market where higher oil prices and higher rates are both putting downward pressure on equities. That's a pretty sort of stagflationary backdrop, which, needless to say, is not a positive backdrop for the stock market," said Kevin Gordon…
-
Monday 3-23 #bubblewatch
The rollercoaster is back today, and for the same reason it ran around the track last week: Trump said something they wanted to hear, even though every time he's done that in the past it turned out to be a lie.
The market has no common sense and no memory. Just kneejerk responses.
> Wall Street indexes rise after Trump postpones strikes on Iran's power plants. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-fall-escalating-iran-conflict-dims-rate-cut-hopes-2026-03-23/
As before, I fully expect the market to be down even further by the end of the week.
-
Friday 3-20 #bubblewatch
Sorry, I didn't update bubblewatch yesterday. Here is the catch-up: the market closed down in a big way yesterday, beginning the sixth straight week of general market downturn.
> Wall St Week Ahead Persistent Iran war, energy price surge set to sway wavering stocks. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-persistent-iran-war-energy-price-surge-set-loom-over-stocks-2026-03-20/
So, where are we now?
IDX Week Month
Dow -2.11% -8.16%
NASDAQ -2.07% -5.41%
S&P -1.90% -5.83%
FTSE -3.34% -7.19% -
Thursday 3-19 #bubblewatch
And today ends the fifth straight week of general market downturn.
> Wall Street ends down as traders see no rate cuts before 2027. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-soaring-oil-prices-fed-outlook-spook-investors-2026-03-19/
FWIW? When the Fed and other central banks say 'inflation risk'? What they mean is, "Here it comes."
[contd]
-
Wednesday 3-18 #bubblewatch
And now we see why I barely reacted to the market being a bit up Monday and yesterday … today it's down further than those two days pushed it up. We remain on track for a fifth straight week of market downturn.
> Wall Street ends sharply lower after Fed keeps rates unchanged. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/wall-st-futures-gain-oil-prices-slip-focus-fed-outlook-2026-03-18/
Also? Treasury yields are up in anticipation of higher inflation and no interest cut from the Fed.
NOTE: Higher interest rates are bad for #AI infra buildout.
-
Some #bubblewatch reading.
> AI still doesn't work very well, businesses are faking it, and a reckoning is coming. https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/17/ai_businesses_faking_it_reckoning_coming_codestrap/
> Deeks argues that if you built an AI system from first principles, it would look drastically different from what's offered today. All the talk about the disappearance of software engineering and office work, he said, "we don't subscribe to any of that."
The central thesis? We don't even know the right metrics to apply to #AI use in #business.
[contd]
-
Tuesday 3-17 #bubblewatch
Slight gains today. But no indication gains will continue through the week.
> Wall Street ends up as traders focus on Fed. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-slip-higher-oil-prices-fuel-inflation-worries-ahead-fed-2026-03-17/
In fact, there is even some #AI #bubble action as:
> "Worries about pricey AI-related stocks, along with uncertainty about the Middle East conflict, have dropped the S&P 500 about 4% from its record high close on January 27."
-
Monday 3-16 #bubblewatch
And the rollercoaster goes for yet another round. Up today.
> Stocks rise as oil prices fall; flurry of central bank meetings on tap. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-03-16/
Once again? This is just stupid people believing obvious lies.
> "There's things out there that are leading people to believe that we're going to be able to open and defend the Straits of Hormuz. I don't know that I'm buying that one, but that's what's causing the rally," said Stephen Massocca…
-
Weekend #bubblewatch reading. The thesis? "Because bubbles are good, really."
> Even Silicon Valley Says That AI Is a Bubble. An AI crash could bring down the economy. Some in the tech world think that’s the price of progress. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/ai-bubble-defenders-silicon-valley/686340/
Archive link:
-
Auburn Basketball's NCAA Tournament Chances Narrow After Consecutive Losses
Auburn basketball team's NCAA Tournament hopes are fading after 5 consecutive losses in February 2026, putting them on the bubble watch.
#AuburnBasketball, #NCAATournament, #BubbleWatch, #CollegeBasketball, #SEC
-
Auburn Basketball's NCAA Tournament Chances Narrow After Consecutive Losses
Auburn basketball team's NCAA Tournament hopes are fading after 5 consecutive losses in February 2026, putting them on the bubble watch.
#AuburnBasketball, #NCAATournament, #BubbleWatch, #CollegeBasketball, #SEC
-
Auburn basketball has now lost 5 games in a row, a streak that started in early February 2026. This is a big change from their earlier performance.
#AuburnBasketball, #NCAATournament, #BubbleWatch, #CollegeBasketball, #SEC
-
Auburn basketball has now lost 5 games in a row, a streak that started in early February 2026. This is a big change from their earlier performance.
#AuburnBasketball, #NCAATournament, #BubbleWatch, #CollegeBasketball, #SEC
-
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Seton Hall's Fading Hopes and Key Metrics
Seton Hall is close to making the NCAA basketball tournament but needs more wins against top teams. Learn about the metrics that matter for tournament hopes.
#NCAATournament, #SetonHall, #CollegeBasketball, #MarchMadness, #BubbleWatch
https://newsletter.tf/seton-hall-ncaa-tournament-chances-getting-smaller/
-
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Seton Hall's Fading Hopes and Key Metrics
Seton Hall is close to making the NCAA basketball tournament but needs more wins against top teams. Learn about the metrics that matter for tournament hopes.
#NCAATournament, #SetonHall, #CollegeBasketball, #MarchMadness, #BubbleWatch
https://newsletter.tf/seton-hall-ncaa-tournament-chances-getting-smaller/
-
Teams like Seton Hall are trying to get into the NCAA basketball tournament. They need to win games against strong teams and avoid losing to weaker ones. Their chances are getting smaller as the season ends.
#NCAATournament, #SetonHall, #CollegeBasketball, #MarchMadness, #BubbleWatch
https://newsletter.tf/seton-hall-ncaa-tournament-chances-getting-smaller/
-
Teams like Seton Hall are trying to get into the NCAA basketball tournament. They need to win games against strong teams and avoid losing to weaker ones. Their chances are getting smaller as the season ends.
#NCAATournament, #SetonHall, #CollegeBasketball, #MarchMadness, #BubbleWatch
https://newsletter.tf/seton-hall-ncaa-tournament-chances-getting-smaller/
-
Monday 11-10 #bubblewatch
The market, especially #AI stocks, saw a big rebound today.
> Wall Street jumps, Nvidia and Palantir lead AI surge. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-hopes-end-government-shutdown-2025-11-10/
Open question: Is this 'buying the dip', a vote of confidence in the AI companies, or an #ExtinctionBurst?
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)#Extinction_Burst
Stay tuned for tomorrows bubblewatch, as we find out!
-
Monday 11-10 #bubblewatch
The market, especially #AI stocks, saw a big rebound today.
> Wall Street jumps, Nvidia and Palantir lead AI surge. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-hopes-end-government-shutdown-2025-11-10/
Open question: Is this 'buying the dip', a vote of confidence in the AI companies, or an #ExtinctionBurst?
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)#Extinction_Burst
Stay tuned for tomorrows bubblewatch, as we find out!
-
Monday 11-10 #bubblewatch
The market, especially #AI stocks, saw a big rebound today.
> Wall Street jumps, Nvidia and Palantir lead AI surge. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-hopes-end-government-shutdown-2025-11-10/
Open question: Is this 'buying the dip', a vote of confidence in the AI companies, or an #ExtinctionBurst?
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)#Extinction_Burst
Stay tuned for tomorrows bubblewatch, as we find out!
-
Monday 11-10 #bubblewatch
The market, especially #AI stocks, saw a big rebound today.
> Wall Street jumps, Nvidia and Palantir lead AI surge. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-hopes-end-government-shutdown-2025-11-10/
Open question: Is this 'buying the dip', a vote of confidence in the AI companies, or an #ExtinctionBurst?
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)#Extinction_Burst
Stay tuned for tomorrows bubblewatch, as we find out!