#bubblewatch — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #bubblewatch, aggregated by home.social.
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#bubblewatch update:
This is one of the signals I've been watching for!
> A Prominent AI Investor Is Now Crumbling, in What Could Be a Sign of Things to Come. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/situational-awareness-ai-investor-crumbling
> Situational Awareness, a much-hyped AI hedge-fund … basically imploded over this month amid a mass tech sell-off … it’s now down 67 percent … forcing Aschenbrenner to desperately seek clients to buy its shares on the cheap to cover its losses.
See also:
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#bubblewatch update:
This is one of the signals I've been watching for!
> A Prominent AI Investor Is Now Crumbling, in What Could Be a Sign of Things to Come. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/situational-awareness-ai-investor-crumbling
> Situational Awareness, a much-hyped AI hedge-fund … basically imploded over this month amid a mass tech sell-off … it’s now down 67 percent … forcing Aschenbrenner to desperately seek clients to buy its shares on the cheap to cover its losses.
See also:
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#bubblewatch update:
Is the bubble already popping in Asia? Or is this just a preview?
> South Korean Authorities Scrambling to Save Stock Market From #AI #Bubble. https://futurism.com/future-society/south-korea-stock-panic-kopsi-kosdaq-circuit-breaker
> Across July 28 and 29, Seoul Economic Daily reports widespread panic triggered not just one but two “circuit breakers” on the Korea Exchange, a sort of automated kill switch that halts regular trading for 30 minutes so panic-stricken traders can gather their thoughts.
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#bubblewatch update:
Is the bubble already popping in Asia? Or is this just a preview?
> South Korean Authorities Scrambling to Save Stock Market From #AI #Bubble. https://futurism.com/future-society/south-korea-stock-panic-kopsi-kosdaq-circuit-breaker
> Across July 28 and 29, Seoul Economic Daily reports widespread panic triggered not just one but two “circuit breakers” on the Korea Exchange, a sort of automated kill switch that halts regular trading for 30 minutes so panic-stricken traders can gather their thoughts.
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#bubblewatch update:
Analysis of current outstanding investment MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) debt showing huge losses (in the hundreds of billions) from 2022 to present.
> US might be sitting on a TIME BOMB!! https://albygetho.substack.com/p/us-might-be-sitting-on-a-time-bomb
> The greatest financial risk from the current #AI investment cycle is unlikely to come from a single company defaulting. Instead, it may emerge through a gradual deterioration in the credit chain that has developed around AI infrastructure.
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#bubblewatch update:
Analysis of current outstanding investment MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) debt showing huge losses (in the hundreds of billions) from 2022 to present.
> US might be sitting on a TIME BOMB!! https://albygetho.substack.com/p/us-might-be-sitting-on-a-time-bomb
> The greatest financial risk from the current #AI investment cycle is unlikely to come from a single company defaulting. Instead, it may emerge through a gradual deterioration in the credit chain that has developed around AI infrastructure.
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🚨 🚨 #bubblewatch Red Alert! 🚨 🚨
> Investors Laying Groundwork to Profit Massively When #Economy Collapses. https://futurism.com/future-society/investors-shorting-economy
> Another glowing red indicator just lit up on the control panel steering the US economy: short sellers have placed a nearly unprecedented magnitude of bets against the domestic stock market.
> … the fact that a growing number of investors aren’t just exiting positions, but are actively betting against the US stock market is a massive tell.
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🚨 🚨 #bubblewatch Red Alert! 🚨 🚨
> Investors Laying Groundwork to Profit Massively When #Economy Collapses. https://futurism.com/future-society/investors-shorting-economy
> Another glowing red indicator just lit up on the control panel steering the US economy: short sellers have placed a nearly unprecedented magnitude of bets against the domestic stock market.
> … the fact that a growing number of investors aren’t just exiting positions, but are actively betting against the US stock market is a massive tell.
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#bubblewatch update:
Ed Zitron does the math and concludes Hyperscaler Data Centers are the Subprime Mortgage of the #AI #bubble
> The Subprime Data Center Crisis. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-data-center-crisis/
Remember 2008? Yeah. Like that.
Also note: The above is entirely separate from overvalued LLM companies wide open to Chinese competition running a Ponzi scheme with their stock.
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#bubblewatch update:
Ed Zitron does the math and concludes Hyperscaler Data Centers are the Subprime Mortgage of the #AI #bubble
> The Subprime Data Center Crisis. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-data-center-crisis/
Remember 2008? Yeah. Like that.
Also note: The above is entirely separate from overvalued LLM companies wide open to Chinese competition running a Ponzi scheme with their stock.
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#bubblewatch update:
If you've been paying attention you know about the IOU #AI companies pass around and pretend is cash. You know about the huge amount of private debt ran up by the hyperscalers as they build out the datacenters. You know about the accelerated depreciation cycles they are trying to hide from their debtors.
Here's someone bringing all those things together:
> The NVIDIA BOOBY-TRAP? NVIDIA gets paid in cash. Someone holds the IOU. It might be you. https://substack.com/home/post/p-207653431
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#bubblewatch update:
If you've been paying attention you know about the IOU #AI companies pass around and pretend is cash. You know about the huge amount of private debt ran up by the hyperscalers as they build out the datacenters. You know about the accelerated depreciation cycles they are trying to hide from their debtors.
Here's someone bringing all those things together:
> The NVIDIA BOOBY-TRAP? NVIDIA gets paid in cash. Someone holds the IOU. It might be you. https://substack.com/home/post/p-207653431
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#bubblewatch update:
Today's 'No Shit Sherlock' award goes to this article.
> There’s a Gigantic Problem at the Heart of the AI Industry That Could Cause the Whole Thing to Collapse. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/problem-ai-industry-collapse-efficiency
> In short, as behemoth AI models are quickly becoming unaffordable to those who’ve grown to rely on them, they’re also becoming far less efficient — a concerning trajectory that could nudge the entire economy closer to the brink.
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#bubblewatch update:
Today's 'No Shit Sherlock' award goes to this article.
> There’s a Gigantic Problem at the Heart of the AI Industry That Could Cause the Whole Thing to Collapse. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/problem-ai-industry-collapse-efficiency
> In short, as behemoth AI models are quickly becoming unaffordable to those who’ve grown to rely on them, they’re also becoming far less efficient — a concerning trajectory that could nudge the entire economy closer to the brink.
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#bubblewatch update:
It's important to understand the current #AI #bubble mostly consists of a small number of heavily leveraged USA-based companies pushing a business model which assumes they will still exist and will own the market in five years—at which point they hope to book profits.
There are many reasons why this is an enormous fallacy. Here is one:
> A Chinese AI Model Just Shot to Number One on the Charts, Sending Shockwaves Through the American Tech Industry. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/chinese-ai-kimi-moonshot-benchmark-claude-chatgpt
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#bubblewatch update:
It's important to understand the current #AI #bubble mostly consists of a small number of heavily leveraged USA-based companies pushing a business model which assumes they will still exist and will own the market in five years—at which point they hope to book profits.
There are many reasons why this is an enormous fallacy. Here is one:
> A Chinese AI Model Just Shot to Number One on the Charts, Sending Shockwaves Through the American Tech Industry. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/chinese-ai-kimi-moonshot-benchmark-claude-chatgpt
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#bubblewatch update:
I boosted this separately, but I really want to encourage you to read this clear eyed discussion of the costs, demand, and pricing models for #AI
> Ways to think about token pricing. AI is in a supply crunch today, but what happens when we come out of it? How and where will supply, demand, price, capacity and capex get back into equilibrium? Today, model labs can name their price, but why won’t they end up as low-margin commodity infrastructure? https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/7/9/ways-to-think-about-token-pricing
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#bubblewatch update:
I boosted this separately, but I really want to encourage you to read this clear eyed discussion of the costs, demand, and pricing models for #AI
> Ways to think about token pricing. AI is in a supply crunch today, but what happens when we come out of it? How and where will supply, demand, price, capacity and capex get back into equilibrium? Today, model labs can name their price, but why won’t they end up as low-margin commodity infrastructure? https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/7/9/ways-to-think-about-token-pricing
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#bubblewatch update:
Russ Mould is saying the #AI #bubble has expanded too far and will badly hurt the wider #economy when it pops. He bases this on an abnormal Shiller CAPE ratio indicating S&P 500 stocks are insanely overvalued.
> On Black Tuesday, the day that kicked off the worst financial catastrophe in modern history, the ratio was 32.5 — 8.5 points lower than it stands today.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio
Paywalled link:
Summary:
> https://futurism.com/future-society/impending-market-collapse-ai-bubble-stocks-overvalued
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#bubblewatch update:
Russ Mould is saying the #AI #bubble has expanded too far and will badly hurt the wider #economy when it pops. He bases this on an abnormal Shiller CAPE ratio indicating S&P 500 stocks are insanely overvalued.
> On Black Tuesday, the day that kicked off the worst financial catastrophe in modern history, the ratio was 32.5 — 8.5 points lower than it stands today.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio
Paywalled link:
Summary:
> https://futurism.com/future-society/impending-market-collapse-ai-bubble-stocks-overvalued
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#bubblewatch update:
While tech stocks melt down, because investors finally started doing the math and realized it doesn't add up, Ed Zitron is still ahead of everyone else in understanding the problem. In this case he's pointing out #AI is a Cargo Cult because they've ran out of ideas and can only mimic the forms of a viable business.
> Cargo Culture. https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture/
> The AI industry is fundamentally judged based on its symbolic similarities to bygone eras.
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#bubblewatch update:
While tech stocks melt down, because investors finally started doing the math and realized it doesn't add up, Ed Zitron is still ahead of everyone else in understanding the problem. In this case he's pointing out #AI is a Cargo Cult because they've ran out of ideas and can only mimic the forms of a viable business.
> Cargo Culture. https://www.wheresyoured.at/cargo-culture/
> The AI industry is fundamentally judged based on its symbolic similarities to bygone eras.
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#bubblewatch update:
Paul Krugman on the stock market carnage we've seen over the last few days.
> The Chips Are Down. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-chips-are-down
> There’s been a fall in tech stocks very much concentrated in semiconductors … What’s going on there? … it does seem that part of what’s happening, probably a large part of what’s happening, is that the tone, the rhetoric surrounding use of #AI, and hence the demand for compute, has really shifted quite a lot just very recently.
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#bubblewatch update:
Paul Krugman on the stock market carnage we've seen over the last few days.
> The Chips Are Down. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-chips-are-down
> There’s been a fall in tech stocks very much concentrated in semiconductors … What’s going on there? … it does seem that part of what’s happening, probably a large part of what’s happening, is that the tone, the rhetoric surrounding use of #AI, and hence the demand for compute, has really shifted quite a lot just very recently.
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#bubblewatch update:
I haven't done a market-based bubblewatch in a while, but today we are seeing a sharp drop in tech stock valuations over hyperscaler fundamentals instead of entirely unrelated Iran war news.
> Wall St tumbles on tech selloff as concerns about hawkish Fed, #AI spending mount. https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-fall-2-tech-worries-fed-hike-bets-2026-06-23/
> "The AI trade became one of the most crowded trades in global markets. When everybody owns the same stocks, the exit door becomes very small very quickly."
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#bubblewatch update:
I haven't done a market-based bubblewatch in a while, but today we are seeing a sharp drop in tech stock valuations over hyperscaler fundamentals instead of entirely unrelated Iran war news.
> Wall St tumbles on tech selloff as concerns about hawkish Fed, #AI spending mount. https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-fall-2-tech-worries-fed-hike-bets-2026-06-23/
> "The AI trade became one of the most crowded trades in global markets. When everybody owns the same stocks, the exit door becomes very small very quickly."
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#bubblewatch update:
> Consensus Grows That China Is Crushing the United States at AI. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/consensus-china-crushing-usa-ai-survey
> Whether this shift in world opinion reflects growing revulsion at the American model or genuine admiration for China’s approach is hard to untangle. What’s clear is that if the US tech industry intends to keep doubling down on its extractive, worker-hostile strategy, it faces a serious legitimacy crisis far beyond what any single company can hope to solve.
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#bubblewatch update:
> Consensus Grows That China Is Crushing the United States at AI. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/consensus-china-crushing-usa-ai-survey
> Whether this shift in world opinion reflects growing revulsion at the American model or genuine admiration for China’s approach is hard to untangle. What’s clear is that if the US tech industry intends to keep doubling down on its extractive, worker-hostile strategy, it faces a serious legitimacy crisis far beyond what any single company can hope to solve.
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#bubblewatch update:
It's good seeing this kind of thing in #newsmedia consumed by average people. It's bad seeing this kind of thing glossing over the details to the extent it becomes unconvincing in order to be consumed by average people.
> The #AI #bubble could be worse than the dot-com bust. https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5925202-tech-bubble-ai-driven-growth/
> But with both the broader economy and the ongoing bull market relying heavily on a concentrated AI-driven boom, the fallout from a burst bubble could be severe.
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#bubblewatch update:
It's good seeing this kind of thing in #newsmedia consumed by average people. It's bad seeing this kind of thing glossing over the details to the extent it becomes unconvincing in order to be consumed by average people.
> The #AI #bubble could be worse than the dot-com bust. https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5925202-tech-bubble-ai-driven-growth/
> But with both the broader economy and the ongoing bull market relying heavily on a concentrated AI-driven boom, the fallout from a burst bubble could be severe.
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#bubblewatch update:
Ed Zitron is, IMHO, our point man in shouting, "The #AI #bubble has no clothes!" His latest continues his high standard of debunking, this time going after the 'Mythos' 'Fable' being pushed by OpenAI.
> AI's Brokenomics. https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics/
> The problem with this kind of hype is that you can only use it for so long before somebody believes you.
> … Anthropic and OpenAI have much bigger problems than regulation … Their business models don’t fucking work.
You go Ed!
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#bubblewatch update:
Ed Zitron is, IMHO, our point man in shouting, "The #AI #bubble has no clothes!" His latest continues his high standard of debunking, this time going after the 'Mythos' 'Fable' being pushed by OpenAI.
> AI's Brokenomics. https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics/
> The problem with this kind of hype is that you can only use it for so long before somebody believes you.
> … Anthropic and OpenAI have much bigger problems than regulation … Their business models don’t fucking work.
You go Ed!
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#bubblewatch update:
As they near their IPOs, #AI companies must choose between increasing prices to shore up their balance sheets or losing customers as prices approach their actual costs.
It's a lose/lose situation.
> OpenAI Execs Are Panicking. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-execs-panicking-price-anthropic
> Put simply, the horrible economics of AI are finally starting to rear their ugly head. Astronomical capital expenditures by AI companies are starting to trickle down to users — and they’re not liking what they’re seeing.
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#bubblewatch update:
As they near their IPOs, #AI companies must choose between increasing prices to shore up their balance sheets or losing customers as prices approach their actual costs.
It's a lose/lose situation.
> OpenAI Execs Are Panicking. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-execs-panicking-price-anthropic
> Put simply, the horrible economics of AI are finally starting to rear their ugly head. Astronomical capital expenditures by AI companies are starting to trickle down to users — and they’re not liking what they’re seeing.
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#bubblewatch update:
As SpaceX slouches it's way towards an unearned IPO, #AI stocks in general fall flat.
> Trading Day: Sizzling AI now fizzling. https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-06-10/
> The AI frenzy is losing its luster, ironically just as the world's biggest IPO is about to land. Or perhaps they're not totally unconnected. Either way, AI and tech stocks are under pressure and are dragging the broader indices down with them.
Rip off the bandaid! Just pop the damn #bubble now!
Jeez…
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#bubblewatch update:
As SpaceX slouches it's way towards an unearned IPO, #AI stocks in general fall flat.
> Trading Day: Sizzling AI now fizzling. https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-06-10/
> The AI frenzy is losing its luster, ironically just as the world's biggest IPO is about to land. Or perhaps they're not totally unconnected. Either way, AI and tech stocks are under pressure and are dragging the broader indices down with them.
Rip off the bandaid! Just pop the damn #bubble now!
Jeez…
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#bubblewatch update:
Ed Zitron again with the must-reads:
> #AI Is Slowing Down. https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/
The problem, as stated by Ed?
> AI Cannot Afford To Slow Down — It Needs $3 Trillion Or More In Revenue By End Of 2030 To Sustain Its Existence.
And yet.
> … the combined compute demand of every single AI company in the world doesn’t currently reach $100 billion …
Meanwhile.
> [There] are signs that AI’s revenue growth is slowing, and it’s likely going to slow further …
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#bubblewatch update:
Ed Zitron again with the must-reads:
> #AI Is Slowing Down. https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/
The problem, as stated by Ed?
> AI Cannot Afford To Slow Down — It Needs $3 Trillion Or More In Revenue By End Of 2030 To Sustain Its Existence.
And yet.
> … the combined compute demand of every single AI company in the world doesn’t currently reach $100 billion …
Meanwhile.
> [There] are signs that AI’s revenue growth is slowing, and it’s likely going to slow further …
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#bubblewatch update:
> Chip slump erases $1.3 trillion in stock market value.
> U.S.-traded chipmakers plunged on Friday, losing about $1.3 trillion in market value, with deep losses in AI heavy hitters including Nvidia, Micron Technolog, and Advanced Micro Devices as Broadcom's weak report earlier this week reverberated across Wall Street.
So, Broadcom has a fever and the entire stock market get sick?
[contd]
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#bubblewatch update:
> Chip slump erases $1.3 trillion in stock market value.
> U.S.-traded chipmakers plunged on Friday, losing about $1.3 trillion in market value, with deep losses in AI heavy hitters including Nvidia, Micron Technolog, and Advanced Micro Devices as Broadcom's weak report earlier this week reverberated across Wall Street.
So, Broadcom has a fever and the entire stock market get sick?
[contd]
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#bubblewatch update:
Ed Zitron, again, points out the obvious.
> #AI Doesn't Have ROI. https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have-roi/
> If you can’t measure how good something is, how much it might cost, or what your return on investment might be, it’s fair to ask why you’re even paying for it in the first place.
> … AI companies have actively conspired to mislead the world about the true costs of AI, and it was working great right up until they decided to try charging what it actually cost.
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#bubblewatch update:
Ed Zitron, again, points out the obvious.
> #AI Doesn't Have ROI. https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have-roi/
> If you can’t measure how good something is, how much it might cost, or what your return on investment might be, it’s fair to ask why you’re even paying for it in the first place.
> … AI companies have actively conspired to mislead the world about the true costs of AI, and it was working great right up until they decided to try charging what it actually cost.
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#bubblewatch update:
Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…
> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926
The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…
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#bubblewatch update:
Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…
> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926
The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…
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#bubblewatch update:
Haven't updated bubblewatch in a while because the stock market is still stupid from war and oil shocks. But Gold and Geopolitics has an interesting post about how NVidia's earnings reports are *great*, but their stock values aren't quite reflecting the great.
> Last call. https://no01.substack.com/p/last-call
> "… it’s not a stock market, is it, it’s two factories in a trench coat pretending to be an economy, and not one person looked under the coat."
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#bubblewatch update:
Haven't updated bubblewatch in a while because the stock market is still stupid from war and oil shocks. But Gold and Geopolitics has an interesting post about how NVidia's earnings reports are *great*, but their stock values aren't quite reflecting the great.
> Last call. https://no01.substack.com/p/last-call
> "… it’s not a stock market, is it, it’s two factories in a trench coat pretending to be an economy, and not one person looked under the coat."
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#bubblewatch update:
Some #AI #bubble weekend reading for you.
> Is the AI bubble about to burst, or is it recalibrating? Massive investment is flowing into AI, but rising costs and inconsistent returns are testing whether the boom is sustainable and can deliver long-term business value. https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/feature/Is-the-AI-bubble-about-to-burst-or-is-it-recalibrating
> A famed permabear says a pattern forming in markets shows how the stock bubble could ultimately burst. https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-bubble-burst-pattern-outlook-john-hussman-government-debt-2026-4
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#bubblewatch update:
Some #AI #bubble weekend reading for you.
> Is the AI bubble about to burst, or is it recalibrating? Massive investment is flowing into AI, but rising costs and inconsistent returns are testing whether the boom is sustainable and can deliver long-term business value. https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/feature/Is-the-AI-bubble-about-to-burst-or-is-it-recalibrating
> A famed permabear says a pattern forming in markets shows how the stock bubble could ultimately burst. https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-bubble-burst-pattern-outlook-john-hussman-government-debt-2026-4
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#bubblewatch update:
Churn from the Iran war and energy markets aside, the #AI #bubble is still there and the question of eventual profitability has not gone away.
> Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower on renewed AI growth worries ahead of big tech earnings. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-fall-middle-east-stalemate-keeps-oil-risks-focus-2026-04-28/
This week it's the big players on deck:
> First-quarter earnings season shifts into overdrive this week, with five of the companies in the Magnificent Seven group of AI-related megacap firms expected to post results.
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#bubblewatch update:
Churn from the Iran war and energy markets aside, the #AI #bubble is still there and the question of eventual profitability has not gone away.
> Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower on renewed AI growth worries ahead of big tech earnings. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-fall-middle-east-stalemate-keeps-oil-risks-focus-2026-04-28/
This week it's the big players on deck:
> First-quarter earnings season shifts into overdrive this week, with five of the companies in the Magnificent Seven group of AI-related megacap firms expected to post results.
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#bubblewatch update:
One of the early #AI VCs says it's nearly time to cash out.
> The AI boom won't last, a top VC warns, as he urges startups to cash out. https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-startup-founders-warning-elad-gilsell-while-boom-lasts-2026-4
> "In the AI era, most companies, including those that are ramping revenue today, will see the market, competition, and adoption, turn on them."
> For founders, that creates a narrow window. Selling or merging while valuations remain high could maximize returns before conditions shift.
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#bubblewatch update:
One of the early #AI VCs says it's nearly time to cash out.
> The AI boom won't last, a top VC warns, as he urges startups to cash out. https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-startup-founders-warning-elad-gilsell-while-boom-lasts-2026-4
> "In the AI era, most companies, including those that are ramping revenue today, will see the market, competition, and adoption, turn on them."
> For founders, that creates a narrow window. Selling or merging while valuations remain high could maximize returns before conditions shift.
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#bubblewatch update:
The market is still flailing wildly from the Iran war, but at least we are starting to get a little more high-level attention to the #AI #bubble.
> Warren draws ‘parallels’ between AI ‘bubble’ and financial crisis. https://thehill.com/business/5846721-warren-ai-debt-risk-crash/
> “The parallels to the 2008 financial crisis are striking: the reckless behavior of a few billionaires and Big Tech CEOs has turned a promising technology into a structural risk to our financial system…”
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#bubblewatch update:
The market is still flailing wildly from the Iran war, but at least we are starting to get a little more high-level attention to the #AI #bubble.
> Warren draws ‘parallels’ between AI ‘bubble’ and financial crisis. https://thehill.com/business/5846721-warren-ai-debt-risk-crash/
> “The parallels to the 2008 financial crisis are striking: the reckless behavior of a few billionaires and Big Tech CEOs has turned a promising technology into a structural risk to our financial system…”
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Because of these weird market dynamics and because the goal of #bubblewatch is to see if I can capture the moment the #AI #bubble is punctured, I see no value in wasting my time talking about an irrational market driven by non-AI forces.
Still, couldn't an irrational market puncture the bubble as a side effect? Certainly! And I'll be looking for such market moves and will update this thread if I the see signs, along with any other related AI news.
But the daily recap is on hold.
[fin]
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Because of these weird market dynamics and because the goal of #bubblewatch is to see if I can capture the moment the #AI #bubble is punctured, I see no value in wasting my time talking about an irrational market driven by non-AI forces.
Still, couldn't an irrational market puncture the bubble as a side effect? Certainly! And I'll be looking for such market moves and will update this thread if I the see signs, along with any other related AI news.
But the daily recap is on hold.
[fin]
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Tuesday 4-14 #bubblewatch *suspended*
After much consideration – and today's publication of the following article – I am suspending daily bubblewatch market recaps.
> War is over for Wall Street, while oil drags down bonds and gold. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/war-is-over-wall-street-while-oil-drags-down-bonds-gold-2026-04-14/
I mean, to begin with? The war is *not over*. This is just more of the market going by vibes and not rational thinking. Moreover, this was true since the war started and will likely continue to be true for the foreseeable future.
[contd]
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Tuesday 4-14 #bubblewatch *suspended*
After much consideration – and today's publication of the following article – I am suspending daily bubblewatch market recaps.
> War is over for Wall Street, while oil drags down bonds and gold. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/war-is-over-wall-street-while-oil-drags-down-bonds-gold-2026-04-14/
I mean, to begin with? The war is *not over*. This is just more of the market going by vibes and not rational thinking. Moreover, this was true since the war started and will likely continue to be true for the foreseeable future.
[contd]
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Monday 4-13 #bubblewatch
Stocks mixed again today, oil prices up. The triumph of hope and manipulation over cold reality continues.
> Wall Street indexes gain as investors hold out hope for US-Iran resolution. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-drop-after-us-iran-peace-talks-fail-2026-04-13/
Again I feel like I should suspend bubblewatch until the market starts acting with a minimal degree of rationality. None of the market moves for the last two plus weeks have made sense or been meaningful.
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Monday 4-13 #bubblewatch
Stocks mixed again today, oil prices up. The triumph of hope and manipulation over cold reality continues.
> Wall Street indexes gain as investors hold out hope for US-Iran resolution. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-drop-after-us-iran-peace-talks-fail-2026-04-13/
Again I feel like I should suspend bubblewatch until the market starts acting with a minimal degree of rationality. None of the market moves for the last two plus weeks have made sense or been meaningful.