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#aotearoavotes — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #aotearoavotes, aggregated by home.social.

  1. And as Sunday arrives in Aotearoa New Zealand, most of the election day votes are counted, and that's where we call it a night.

    This has been a very bizarre MMP election, with a record number of overhangs. Tactical voting comes to MMP, and it seems to have had an effect.

    As things stand, Christopher Luxon is most likely to serve another term as Prime Minister. But when special votes are counted in two weeks, there is a small chance that this could change.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  2. National Leader Christopher Luxon is addressing National supporters in Auckland.

    He says the result is too close to call, and that he will lead a caretaker government while the count continues.

    The party's six overhangs could end up meaning the difference between forming a government and falling short. While the specials could still make a difference, I do think a National-led government is the most likely outcome.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  3. Green Party Co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick has held her electorate of Auckland Central.

    Marama Davidson was elected by being first on the list.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  4. At this point, it's looking far more likely than not that Christopher Luxon will serve another term as Prime Minister, without needing to call Opportunity.

    Special votes could still change that. I think the likelihood of that are small, though not zero.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  5. Quite a number of big names on the National list who will be out of Parliament tonight.

    For National MPs, the equation is simple: if you didn't win your electorate, or you didn't stand in an electorate, then you're out.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  6. They say every vote counts.

    If one vote makes the difference of who forms government, that would be extraordinary.

    (It probably won't, but Mount Roskill currently has a one-vote lead.)

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  7. Labour Leader Chris Hipkins is addressing party supporters in Wellington.

    He is leaving the door open to the possibility of forming government, and to the possibility of not. He says it will take some time to figure out what New Zealanders have said.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  8. You don't say this too often in proportional representation systems, but the single-member electorates will end up deciding who forms the next government.

    Many of these seats have been flipping back and forth over the course of the evening, and some of those could flip (either way) when the specials are counted in two weeks time.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  9. The right bloc is now edging into majority territory, though it's still close enough that the special votes could be the deciding factor.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  10. STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 22:00 NZDT:

    At this stage, I'm ready to predict that the state of New Zealand's next government will not be clear tonight.

    The two potential coalitions are currently neck and neck, and with the record number of overhangs expected, every electorate will matter, and the special votes will make all the difference.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  11. Green co-leaders Marama Davidson and Chloë Swarbrick are addressing their party supporters in Auckland.

    They are on track to win the most seats in their history. But it in unclear whether they will be part of government, and probably won't be clear until the specials come in.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  12. National has just snuck back into first place in the party vote.

    Both Labour and National have been slipping over the past hour or so. And that could end up with even more overhangs if this trend continues.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  13. NZ First Leader Winston Peters is addressing his supporters at the Duke of Marlborough Hotel in Russell.

    He says he will not be commenting on the results, and is calling for supporters to wait for the facts to be known before commenting.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  14. These show just how the split-vote strategy is working in real-time.

    National and Te Pāti Māori are both seeing substantial drops in their party vote. Which means that they should be losing a lot of seats.

    But both of their candidate votes are down much more marginally. That's allowing them to keep many of those electorate seats.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  15. STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 21:00 NZDT:

    It's on a knife edge, with the two coalitions currently within a seat of each other.

    With a record ELEVEN overhangs now, every electorate will matter for the formation of government, more than it ever has since MMP was introduced 30 years ago.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  16. Normally, in a New Zealand election, the electorates don't really determine who will form government.

    But with the number of National overhangs, they could make a huge difference.

    Every National-Labour electorate will, at this point, ultimately decide which Chris will form the next government of Aotearoa New Zealand.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  17. Opportunity Leader Qiulae Wong is addressing party supporters in Auckland.

    The party is slightly above the 5% they need to enter the House of Representatives. If they stay there, then it looks highly likely that they will hold the balance of power in the new Parliament.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  18. COALITION BUILDER ALERT!

    National+ACT+NZ First: 65
    Labour+Green+Māori+Opportunity: 65

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  19. Opportunity Leader Qiulae Wong will not win an electorate seat in Mount Albert.

    This means that they're now relying on finishing above 5% to get into Parliament. They're currently on around 5.4%.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  20. ACT Leader David Seymour is addressing party supporters in Auckland.

    His party will have the most MPs it's ever had, on track to gain two seats. But it's unclear whether his coalition will be in government or in opposition.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  21. This shows why we are going to have a record-breaking number of overhangs in this election.

    Labour is now leading in the party vote. But National is well ahead in the candidate vote, allowing them to win in the electorates.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  22. The two coalitions are now neck and neck in terms of the votes counted.

    The National-ACT-NZ First coalition is currently on 65 seats.
    A coalition with Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity is on 64 seats.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  23. This is what Parliament would look like if only party votes were taken into account, and there were no overhang seats.

    But both coalition blocks have argued for votes to be split between the candidate and party votes. That's put National ahead in 41 electorates, and Te Pāti Māori ahead in 5 electorates. Both of those parties' party votes are down substantially, but their candidate votes are holding relatively steady.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  24. STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 20:00 NZDT

    At the moment, I could a record-smashing nine overhang seats, five for National and four for Te Pāti Māori.

    The vote has been narrowing over the past hour. Right now, the National-led coalition would have a bare majority, but it's not clear at all that they'd be able to keep it.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  25. One of Te Pāti Māori's co-leaders has been comfortably re-elected in Te Tai Hauāuru.

    But you can see the split vote strategy in play in many of the Māori seats, with 58% of the candidate vote, but only 5% of the party vote in this electorate. That's what's giving TPM their overhangs.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  26. On current numbers, the coalition government would be able to take another term in office.

    But it's too early to call.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  27. Labour Leader Chris Hipkins has also been re-elected in Remutaka.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  28. First party leader elected: National Leader Christopher Luxon has been re-elected in Botany.

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

  29. At this early stage, I could EIGHT overhangs. Four for National, and four for Te Pāti Māori.

    Those overhangs could mean the difference to which coalition is actualy able to form a government, in particular for National.

    (Of course, this also means that National's list-only candidates, like Finance Minister Nicola Willis, are out.)

    #nzpoli #VoteNZ #AotearoaVotes

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