#witkowski — Public Fediverse posts

This new paper actually prompted me to ponder and calculate potential methane levels in the mid #Miocene 15Ma.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9 "Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial pCO2 decline since the mid-Miocene" by #Witkowski etal 2024.

The paper made the rounds on Twix and in the Fediverse because it is taken as proof that "IPCC was wrong AGAIN and ECS is far higher than their 3°C ±1!"

As it happens, the authors themselves write that they a) used a different formula to calculate their ECS and b) that they did not incorporate methane and cloud feedbacks and that this omission likely is the reason for paleoclimate ECS being always higher than ECS base on today's boundary conditions.

Looking at CO2 values in their supplementary Excel file, the question must be raised how on Earth they can muster the audacity to claim they had proven IPCC ECS wrong – with 3 data points in 15Ma for one proxy and the other one has a single data point...
I mean... really... the individual proxy series in Hoenisch's paleoCO2-archive are mostly equally spotty. Only in averaging them all, and with properly equal regional distribution, can one hope to come near CO2 levels in the distant climate past. One study is not enough to conclude anything.

Also maybe their sediment core from the Californian continental shelf in shallow waters... was an upwelling zone 15Ma? Different Pacific currents due to open Panama Isthmus and the Pacific not flowing into the Arctic Sea make that possible, no?
d13C as proxy for CO2 from upwelling zones is known to be too high because of the additional nutrients those creatures received that later form the sediment proxy. (See supplement to Hoenisch )

Also maybe: the location was a melting zone for hydrates in the warm Mid Miocene 15Ma?
It looks shallow enough for warming waters to reach down and melt the iced gas. And would this dissolved CH4 become accessible carbon for the creatures?

Dunno. Anyway.
That's why I sat down and guesstimated and calculated the methane level in 15Ma. 😁
#FridaysForFuture
#anloCH4

W latach 2013-2023 sześciokrotnie wzrosła liczba prób samobójczych wśród młodzieży. Natomiast liczba skutecznych samobójstw nie zmieniła się. Co to znaczy? Albo młodzież stała się sześciokrotnie mniej skuteczna... albo podjęcie próby samobójstwa zyskało popularność jako sposób na zwrócenie uwagi otoczenia na siebie i swoje trudności.

📻 To i inne rozważania na temat zdrowia psychicznego współczesnej młodzieży znajdujemy w rozmowie z dr. Tomaszem Witkowskim w najnowszym odcinku audycji "Kroniki Odchodzenia od Rozumu": https://yewtu.be/watch?v=W9turwn15sE "Kuszenie młodego Wertera"

#młodzież #samobójstwa #psychika #psychologia #efektWertera #KronikiOdchodzeniaOdRozumu #Witkowski #TomaszWitkowski #BojanStanisławski #KatarzynaSzumlewicz #Szumlewicz #Stanisławski