Broader implications of the Israel-Hamas war
If you're avoiding discussion of this topic, pass on this toot, mute this thread, and consider muting me as well.
The question of what entities, if any, assisted Hamas in its attack, and how Israel and associated powers might assess that intelligence and act on it, and what further implications might arise is ... interesting, in one of those coldly bloody sorts of ways.
Israel's NSO group is among the most capable non-state, or perhaps quasi-state, actors in the surveillance field. Along with the US's NSA, I would suspect that there is at least some signals intelligence surrounding organisation of the attacks commencing five days ago.
There are several national actors which have been fingered, though these are officially denying involvement. News and analysis I've been following has been remarkably quiet concerning this, other than brief mentions. Having nothing to go on but speculation I'll avoid such pointing myself.
There's also speculation that Israel, and specifically PM Netanyahu were aware of a possible attack in advance, with high-level warnings made by Egypt. The thought that the attacks were an opportunistic excuse for a strong action against Hamas and Gaza has also been floated.
Which raises the question of whether or not Israel is considering who is pulling, or funding, the strings on Hamas, and whether or not it sees any advantage in striking behind the curtain. I've seen no indication yet that it is, with mainstream discussion focusing on a probably invasion and occupation of Gaza itself. So a key question is whether or not Israel or its PM are even contemplating broader action(s).
How Israel might strike at a state- or private-individual level patron of Hamas, and what further implications, spill-over, or escalation threats this might raise is fairly blood-chilling to consider.
And in addition to team I, it's worth note that Hamas has strong support by teams T and Q as I'd learnt a few days ago. Those are entities with far stronger relationships with far more substantive countries, including several which are direct allies of Israel itself.
This 42 paragraph explainer from CNN has all of three brief 'graphs discussing a possible wider regional war: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/09/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-war-explained-mime-intl/index.html
The Economist similarly only mentions the dimension in one of 17 'graphs, similarly buried near the end, here: https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/10/09/hamass-carnage-upends-joe-bidens-plans-for-the-middle-east
The Financial Times headlines its piece noting the US secretary of state's visit to the region with a focus on avoiding escalation, but puts its focus on other states availing the opportunity to attack Israel, rather than any consideration of what states or entities Israel itself might focus its own vengeance on: https://archive.ph/4XNsm (Archive of paywalled original: https://www.ft.com/content/df7c7ca5-4527-48b8-bfe2-d199ee989846).
Given Israel's past record of cold-served dishes and precision strikes ... this seems like a potentially interesting longer-term story, and might well have #infosec and #tradecraft implications.
#israel #hamas #gaza #war #iran #turkey #qatar #russia #SaudiArabia
