#susanholt — Public Fediverse posts

#nbpoli Opinion:

Should #NewBrunswick Premier #BlaineHiggs call an #election, it's going to be incredibly hard for him not to secure another majority government.

He's riding a massive surplus that he can use to target middle-income swing voters through targeted tax cuts and he can keep the rest of his base in line and away from the harder-right allure of the People's Alliance through his anti-LGBTQ+ fervour.

There's really only two things that could sink him into minority or opposition status:
- He goes a little too heavy into the anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric and scares off enough centrist #ProgressiveConservative voters.
- His opposition (specifically #SusanHolt and #DavidCoon) effectively avoid falling into the trap he has set to try and make the election about the bogus #ParentalRights argument and instead hammer him effectively on other provincial crises, such as health care, housing, etc.

The X-factor could once again be the Green Party, who could see vote bumps in ridings where fringe-PC voters don't feel like voting for another Higgs government but aren't exactly comfortable voting for the Liberals. That said, I'm not sure that vote is efficinent enough in areas to cost the PC candidate their seat.