https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/verbraucher/funkloecher-app-100.html
Bisher wurden keine gemeldet. 😅
#survivorshipbias
#survivorshipbias — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #survivorshipbias, aggregated by home.social.
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@davidtheeviloverlord
Survivorship bias makes sense. [If you’re shot in the revolution you may not live long enough to become conservative]
Some research suggests that constancy across age is a bigger feature than recognised, ie, people don’t change. But also that, over time, “liberals are more likely to become conservatives than conservatives are to become liberals”. More below & source.“Consistent with previous research but contrary to folk wisdom [ie, that people become more conservative as they age], our results indicate that political attitudes are remarkably stable over the long term. In contrast to previous research, however, we also find support for folk wisdom: on those occasions when political attitudes do shift across the life span, liberals are more likely to become conservatives than conservatives are to become liberals, suggesting that folk wisdom has some empirical basis even as it overstates the degree of change.”
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/706889
#SurvivorshipBias #conservatism #ageChangesPoliticalAttitudes #constancyOfPoliticalValues
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Why ‘Progress’ Is Just Someone Else’s Destination with Better PR
explains how progress is not a neutral term and, in practice, may be a trap.
I also discuss other subtopics. 🐺→🐩= #SadPanda
#philosophy #evolution #progress #wolves #poodles #future #history #adoption #cognitivebias #survivorshipbias #Substack #blok #video #accounting #asymetry #colonialism #gemini #ai #claudeai
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New article: I've been watching those "I quit my job to follow my passion" videos for years. I'm not immune to their allure. However, I started noticing what they don't show. The family money. The startup spouse with health insurance. The savings from the finance job they left.
The "follow your passion" narrative isn't about courage. It's about who can afford to take the risk.
#writing #ClassPrivilege #entrepreneurship #PassionEconomy #SurvivorshipBias #SelfMadeMyth
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Cơn sốt AI hiện tại đang ảo hơn bạn nghĩ. Nhiều bài đăng khoe "$50k MRR trong 2 tuần" thực chất là thiên kiến sinh tồn hoặc dữ liệu chọn lọc. Đừng tin cả vào AI khi ý tưởng: ChatGPT chỉ là "kẻ nói yes" mà thôi. Lắng nghe phản biện từ AI, kiểm tra kỹ lưỡng ý tưởng trước khi hành động. Thành công thực thụ đến từ kế hoạch rõ ràng, không phải niềm tin mù quáng.
#AI #Startup #KhởiNghiệp #SaaS #CôngNghệ
**#AIGoldRush** **#SurvivorshipBias** -
Overall govt statistics (or their methodology) also highlight #survivorshipBias of those from subcultures like the #rave scene who brag on #Facebook and other such places that "we got away with it back in the day" - firstly old bill weren't testing for drug use until the mid 2000s (and forbidden levels of specific #drugs were only set in 2015 in #England and 2019 in #Scotland) , and in 1990s there was a much higher level of general fatalities on the roads and less analysis of their causes by the #Police and HM #Coroner - which masked to some extent any effect #DrugDriving would have had on these figures (especially any RTCs caused by midweek sleep deprivation, which occurs some days after the actual drug use)
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#digitalcourage:
"
Instagram, TikTok und Co.
Die Reichweitenlüge
Millionen Follower, null Wirkung: „Social Media“ verkauft uns ein volles Stadion – und schaltet dann das Mikro stumm
"
https://digitalcourage.de/blog/2025/die-reichweitenluege9.9.2025
#Algorithmus #Aufmerksamkeit #Erfolg #Fediverse #Follower #Instagram #SurvivorshipBias #Reichweitenlüge #SocialMedia #TikTok #Twitter #X
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Und im Zuge dessen passt das hier gerade perfekt:
> [...] Die eigenen oder beobachteten positiven Erfahrungen dienen dann als Beweis dafür, dass frühere Erziehungsmethoden (wie zum Beispiel körperliche Strafen oder fehlende Sicherheitsvorkehrungen) grundsätzlich unproblematisch seien – während all jene Fälle, in denen Kinder ernsthaft Schaden genommen haben, ignoriert werden. [...]#IchBinSoAlt #SurvivorshipBias #Erziehung #Nostalgie #Unfälle #Impfungen #Therapie
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Anscheinend ist es tödlicher, in die linke Körperhälfte geschossen zu werden?? #ikyk #SurvivorshipBias #SBahnFund
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"... Another kind of #SurvivorshipBias would involve thinking that an incident happened in a particular way because the only people who were involved in the incident who can speak about it are those who survived it. Even if one knew that some people are dead, they would not have their voice to add to the conversation, making it biased."
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Mit der #Klimakatastrophe ist es wie mit #COVID:
So lange eins selbst nicht betroffen ist, ist es nur ein kleines Unwetterchen, dass es schon immer gegeben hat. Wie eine Grippe 🤡
Und irgendwann nimmst du dein Phone und machst das Video selbst…
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Yesterday's mathematical biology seminar saw my colleague Richard Mann talk on "Covariant evolutionary processes: a theory of the Cambrian explosion and other radiations".
The Cambrian explosion is the appearance of many different animal species about 500 million years ago (see e.g. the Wikipedia article for background). The idea of the talk is that it was not such a special event. We don't need
external environmental factors to explain it. Instead, fairly standard birth-and-death stochastic processes show similar explosions once you take survivorship bias into account. Loosely speaking, the fact that we are here means that there must have been an explosion of species in the past. Not my area of expertise at all but very interesting.#paleontology #cambrian #CambrianExplosion #bias #SurvivorshipBias #StochasticProcesses
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Survivorship bias in the music industry, an underestimated phenomenon #survivorshipbias
https://www.side-line.com/survivorship-bias-in-the-music-industry-an-underestimated-phenomenon/
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@realTuckFrumper
Well sure, on average.The slower ones get eaten first.
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New Portuguese-Language pages created on #RationalWiki in July:
#Português #PortugueseApelo à fé #appealtofaith #logicalfallacy #FaláciaLógica
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Apelo_%C3%A0_f%C3%A9#TDK (acrônimo para Tirei Do Ku) #PIDOOMA
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/TDKViés de sobrevivência #survivorshipbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sobreviv%C3%AAnciaViés de seleção #selectionbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sele%C3%A7%C3%A3oEvidência suprimida #cherrypicking
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Evid%C3%AAncia_suprimidaFalácia do holofote #spotlightfallacy
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Fal%C3%A1cia_do_holofoteTeoria da cegueira deliberada #willfulignorance #denialism
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Teoria_da_cegueira_deliberadaPost hoc, ergo propter hoc #posthocergopropterhoc
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc_(portugu%C3%AAs)Superstição #Superstition
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Supersti%C3%A7%C3%A3o -
Always worth bearing in mind.
https://xkcd.com/1827/ -
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@diggles_b I would also encourage people to go for it, but don't assume it's going to end well. Many others have have done so and failed. #SurvivorshipBias
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@eniko @Jdreben Please note that the canonical picture of #SurvivorshipBias is an argument for building better planes, not for never taking off from the airfield
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#Transparency about Others’ #Luck and Effort Enhances #Redistribution
https://docs.iza.org/dp15909.pdf
"…directly address #SurvivorshipBias, which is one of the root causes of perceived income #entitlement. By making nonwinners’ performance available to winners in a
game where only one randomly selected person can win, we can effectively induce winners to redistribute more of their earned incomes to nonwinners who performed equally well, if not better, than them"
#ExperimentalEcon -
Reading the #Wikipedia page on #Andor and patatras: a very nice exemple of #SurvivorshipBias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andor_(TV_series)#Critical_response
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@AstraKernel @nickm @Mara obviously. But as the #survivorshipbias teaches us: You will only see those toots that did get that boost.
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A classic of the @micefearboggis blog #genre - on a famous story about #SurvivorshipBias
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@drandrewv2 What an excellent point. Yes!
The example itself is perhaps part of the issue? It does beautifully illustrate #SurvivorshipBias but does so with an example that - as you say, once genius was applied and with the benefit of hindsight - does perhaps lead people to mistakenly *think* it is somewhat obvious and intuitive? Because of the “obvious” NON-survivors in a war. It’s too neat!
There needs to be a standard less “obvious” follow-up second example! 🤔 -
Stories about winners aren’t blueprints for success, no matter how faithfully they recount “how he did it.”
100 billionaires all doing something in common isn’t a reliable signal if 500 million broke people also do the exact same thing.
