#survivorshipbias — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #survivorshipbias, aggregated by home.social.
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New article: I've been watching those "I quit my job to follow my passion" videos for years. I'm not immune to their allure. However, I started noticing what they don't show. The family money. The startup spouse with health insurance. The savings from the finance job they left.
The "follow your passion" narrative isn't about courage. It's about who can afford to take the risk.
#writing #ClassPrivilege #entrepreneurship #PassionEconomy #SurvivorshipBias #SelfMadeMyth
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Overall govt statistics (or their methodology) also highlight #survivorshipBias of those from subcultures like the #rave scene who brag on #Facebook and other such places that "we got away with it back in the day" - firstly old bill weren't testing for drug use until the mid 2000s (and forbidden levels of specific #drugs were only set in 2015 in #England and 2019 in #Scotland) , and in 1990s there was a much higher level of general fatalities on the roads and less analysis of their causes by the #Police and HM #Coroner - which masked to some extent any effect #DrugDriving would have had on these figures (especially any RTCs caused by midweek sleep deprivation, which occurs some days after the actual drug use)
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#digitalcourage:
"
Instagram, TikTok und Co.
Die Reichweitenlüge
Millionen Follower, null Wirkung: „Social Media“ verkauft uns ein volles Stadion – und schaltet dann das Mikro stumm
"
https://digitalcourage.de/blog/2025/die-reichweitenluege9.9.2025
#Algorithmus #Aufmerksamkeit #Erfolg #Fediverse #Follower #Instagram #SurvivorshipBias #Reichweitenlüge #SocialMedia #TikTok #Twitter #X
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Anscheinend ist es tödlicher, in die linke Körperhälfte geschossen zu werden?? #ikyk #SurvivorshipBias #SBahnFund
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CW: Vent re: survivorship bias in voice training, with a focus on voice feminisation
Hey lovelies :NotoEmojiPinkHeart:
We've been meaning to write this up for a while, but we first needed to scramble together enough executive function to do so.
For context, we're a non-binary trans woman who first went through an androgenic puberty in her teens, causing her voice to permanently deepen. As such, the focus of our vent is on voice feminisation, rather than masculinisation, androgynisation, etc.
We only finally realised / accepted that we were trans in late March / early April 2021. It then took us until December 2021 to begin any kind of voice training with a voice coach (Louise Milner-Smith, All About Your Voice).
Like a lot of newly-cracked eggs, we went online and tried to find voice feminisation guides. We came across cursed communities like r/transvoice and cursed voice coaches like TransVoiceLessons.
What we sadly discovered were guides that were overly-complicated and inaccessible to us as a neurospicy beginner with no prior musical training or singing talent 😞
The guides typically tended to jump into theory or used specific terms like "head voice" and "chest voice", and asked us to increase our "resonance" and "raise our larynx" 😖
These might as well have written in another language for all the sense they made to us 🥺
To make matters sadly worse, the videos were typically by US-based trans voice coaches with musical and singing backgrounds, who shared the primary goal of sounding like a stereotypically-feminine cis woman.
Our goal with voice training was never to sound like someone we're not.
We didn't and still don't want to sound like an uwu girl: we simply wanted and still want our voice to be as close as possible to the one we'd have had if we'd never gone through an androgenic puberty.
To say that these videos, posts, and resources were demoralising is an understatement. They made us feel like we were constantly failing, because clearly if so many others were able to focus and do this, the problem must be with us, right?
After 3 years plus of voice training, using what we learnt from voice coach Louise Milner-Smith, we've made some progress with our voice. It's hard to say how much it truly passes, but we typically get gendered as a woman these days by non-transphobic strangers. However, we're still not happy with out voice, and we're at the point where we'll likely need some form of voice feminisation surgery to get there.
The biggest thing we've come to realise is that we're not the only person who struggles with voice training, particularly when it comes to pitch. The reason we don't tend to see or hear about this as much is due to the:
- survivorship bias;
- push for gender-conformity; and
- toxic positivity...
... within the mainstream, visible voice training community 😔
Whilst there are exceptions to the rule, the guides and videos you see about voice feminisation tend to fall into one of the following categories:
- Cis voice coaches promoting their pricey voice feminisation services to trans fems (e.g., Nicole Gress of Undead Voice Lab; Christella Antoni etc.).
- Trans fem voice coaches promoting their own voice coaching lessons (e.g., TransVoiceLessons).
- Trans fem content creators who've achieved a fem voice and made voice training videos (e.g., YukkoEx; FairyPrincessLucy).
- Trans fem content creators talking about their voice training journey and believing that anyone else can do it (e.g., ICKY talking about her own self-taught voice journey; Abigail Thorn talking about her experience with the Seattle Voice Lab).
We don't have an issue with voice coaches promoting their services, but the ones online are typically very expensive and way outside of the price range of many trans people. It can be extra disheartening to see that such services exist, but are behind a paywall.
For the free guides, whilst it's great that people want to help, if it's presented as something that anyone can learn to do with enough time and hard work, it will dishearten those who cannot achieve the same outcomes as those in the videos.
ICKY, for example, speaks as if it's just a matter of training daily and working hard at the voice until it becomes routine, and that you'll learn to love your new voice. However, this experience isn't universal, and it's possible both to make progress and to still feel intense voice dysphoria.
We know that some people are going to read this and think that we're being pessimistic about voice training, but it's honestly rather than we want those within the voice training community to be more realistic about the fact that some people will not achieve the voice they want.
It doesn't help too that the voice training community is, by and large, completely against voice feminisation surgery, despite the fact that it has improved the lives of many trans fems who've had it done well. Sure, it has risks, but so do all surgeries.
We hasten to add, we're not against voice training: we just think that most voice coaching is too expensive and most free guides either don't make sense or focus on the wrong things, rather than focussing on fundamentals (e.g., strengthening vocal folds; controlling breathe whilst speaking). Then again, it's more click-baity to do a video on "the trick to a feminine voice".
Anyways, we may return to this post and make edits or additions later, but for now, that's most of it out of our system. If you've read this far down, thank you for taking the time to do so.
#VoiceTraining #TransVoice #VoiceFeminisation #VoiceFeminization #VFS #trans #transgender #NonBinary #agender #bigender #genderfluid #genderqueer #LGBTQ+ #LGBTQIA+ #queer #transition #SurvivorshipBias
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When helmets were first issued to WWI soldiers, the number of head injuries skyrocketed.
Upon closer look, folks realised that those soldiers with head injuries would have been dead not injured, without the helmets.
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"... Another kind of #SurvivorshipBias would involve thinking that an incident happened in a particular way because the only people who were involved in the incident who can speak about it are those who survived it. Even if one knew that some people are dead, they would not have their voice to add to the conversation, making it biased."
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Mit der #Klimakatastrophe ist es wie mit #COVID:
So lange eins selbst nicht betroffen ist, ist es nur ein kleines Unwetterchen, dass es schon immer gegeben hat. Wie eine Grippe 🤡
Und irgendwann nimmst du dein Phone und machst das Video selbst…
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Yesterday's mathematical biology seminar saw my colleague Richard Mann talk on "Covariant evolutionary processes: a theory of the Cambrian explosion and other radiations".
The Cambrian explosion is the appearance of many different animal species about 500 million years ago (see e.g. the Wikipedia article for background). The idea of the talk is that it was not such a special event. We don't need
external environmental factors to explain it. Instead, fairly standard birth-and-death stochastic processes show similar explosions once you take survivorship bias into account. Loosely speaking, the fact that we are here means that there must have been an explosion of species in the past. Not my area of expertise at all but very interesting.#paleontology #cambrian #CambrianExplosion #bias #SurvivorshipBias #StochasticProcesses
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@realTuckFrumper
Well sure, on average.The slower ones get eaten first.
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New Portuguese-Language pages created on #RationalWiki in July:
#Português #PortugueseApelo à fé #appealtofaith #logicalfallacy #FaláciaLógica
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Apelo_%C3%A0_f%C3%A9#TDK (acrônimo para Tirei Do Ku) #PIDOOMA
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/TDKViés de sobrevivência #survivorshipbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sobreviv%C3%AAnciaViés de seleção #selectionbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sele%C3%A7%C3%A3oEvidência suprimida #cherrypicking
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Evid%C3%AAncia_suprimidaFalácia do holofote #spotlightfallacy
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Fal%C3%A1cia_do_holofoteTeoria da cegueira deliberada #willfulignorance #denialism
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Teoria_da_cegueira_deliberadaPost hoc, ergo propter hoc #posthocergopropterhoc
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc_(portugu%C3%AAs)Superstição #Superstition
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Supersti%C3%A7%C3%A3o -
New Portuguese-Language pages created on #RationalWiki in July:
#Português #PortugueseApelo à fé #appealtofaith #logicalfallacy #FaláciaLógica
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Apelo_%C3%A0_f%C3%A9#TDK (acrônimo para Tirei Do Ku) #PIDOOMA
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/TDKViés de sobrevivência #survivorshipbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sobreviv%C3%AAnciaViés de seleção #selectionbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sele%C3%A7%C3%A3oEvidência suprimida #cherrypicking
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Evid%C3%AAncia_suprimidaFalácia do holofote #spotlightfallacy
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Fal%C3%A1cia_do_holofoteTeoria da cegueira deliberada #willfulignorance #denialism
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Teoria_da_cegueira_deliberadaPost hoc, ergo propter hoc #posthocergopropterhoc
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc_(portugu%C3%AAs)Superstição #Superstition
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Supersti%C3%A7%C3%A3o -
New Portuguese-Language pages created on #RationalWiki in July:
#Português #PortugueseApelo à fé #appealtofaith #logicalfallacy #FaláciaLógica
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Apelo_%C3%A0_f%C3%A9#TDK (acrônimo para Tirei Do Ku) #PIDOOMA
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/TDKViés de sobrevivência #survivorshipbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sobreviv%C3%AAnciaViés de seleção #selectionbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sele%C3%A7%C3%A3oEvidência suprimida #cherrypicking
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Evid%C3%AAncia_suprimidaFalácia do holofote #spotlightfallacy
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Fal%C3%A1cia_do_holofoteTeoria da cegueira deliberada #willfulignorance #denialism
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Teoria_da_cegueira_deliberadaPost hoc, ergo propter hoc #posthocergopropterhoc
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc_(portugu%C3%AAs)Superstição #Superstition
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Supersti%C3%A7%C3%A3o -
New Portuguese-Language pages created on #RationalWiki in July:
#Português #PortugueseApelo à fé #appealtofaith #logicalfallacy #FaláciaLógica
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Apelo_%C3%A0_f%C3%A9#TDK (acrônimo para Tirei Do Ku) #PIDOOMA
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/TDKViés de sobrevivência #survivorshipbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sobreviv%C3%AAnciaViés de seleção #selectionbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sele%C3%A7%C3%A3oEvidência suprimida #cherrypicking
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Evid%C3%AAncia_suprimidaFalácia do holofote #spotlightfallacy
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Fal%C3%A1cia_do_holofoteTeoria da cegueira deliberada #willfulignorance #denialism
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Teoria_da_cegueira_deliberadaPost hoc, ergo propter hoc #posthocergopropterhoc
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc_(portugu%C3%AAs)Superstição #Superstition
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Supersti%C3%A7%C3%A3o -
New Portuguese-Language pages created on #RationalWiki in July:
#Português #PortugueseApelo à fé #appealtofaith #logicalfallacy #FaláciaLógica
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Apelo_%C3%A0_f%C3%A9#TDK (acrônimo para Tirei Do Ku) #PIDOOMA
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/TDKViés de sobrevivência #survivorshipbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sobreviv%C3%AAnciaViés de seleção #selectionbias
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sele%C3%A7%C3%A3oEvidência suprimida #cherrypicking
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Evid%C3%AAncia_suprimidaFalácia do holofote #spotlightfallacy
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Fal%C3%A1cia_do_holofoteTeoria da cegueira deliberada #willfulignorance #denialism
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Teoria_da_cegueira_deliberadaPost hoc, ergo propter hoc #posthocergopropterhoc
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,_ergo_propter_hoc_(portugu%C3%AAs)Superstição #Superstition
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Supersti%C3%A7%C3%A3o -
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@diggles_b I would also encourage people to go for it, but don't assume it's going to end well. Many others have have done so and failed. #SurvivorshipBias
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@eniko @Jdreben Please note that the canonical picture of #SurvivorshipBias is an argument for building better planes, not for never taking off from the airfield
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#Transparency about Others’ #Luck and Effort Enhances #Redistribution
https://docs.iza.org/dp15909.pdf
"…directly address #SurvivorshipBias, which is one of the root causes of perceived income #entitlement. By making nonwinners’ performance available to winners in a
game where only one randomly selected person can win, we can effectively induce winners to redistribute more of their earned incomes to nonwinners who performed equally well, if not better, than them"
#ExperimentalEcon -
Reading the #Wikipedia page on #Andor and patatras: a very nice exemple of #SurvivorshipBias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andor_(TV_series)#Critical_response
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@AstraKernel @nickm @Mara obviously. But as the #survivorshipbias teaches us: You will only see those toots that did get that boost.
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A classic of the @micefearboggis blog #genre - on a famous story about #SurvivorshipBias
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@drandrewv2 What an excellent point. Yes!
The example itself is perhaps part of the issue? It does beautifully illustrate #SurvivorshipBias but does so with an example that - as you say, once genius was applied and with the benefit of hindsight - does perhaps lead people to mistakenly *think* it is somewhat obvious and intuitive? Because of the “obvious” NON-survivors in a war. It’s too neat!
There needs to be a standard less “obvious” follow-up second example! 🤔 -
When someone says "It never did me any harm, I'm still here!"
#DarthVaderMemes #SurvivorshipBias #LogicalFallacy #StarWarsMemes
