#stayhomeifsick — Public Fediverse posts

10/7/2024

Good Morning SARS2PAians! 🍁🍁🍁

I haven't been posting much because the picture didn't really change all that much for us so far. Numbers for PA wastewater are going down except for a bit in Philly.: https://ibb.co/sPRmszP

KP.3.x.y still very much at the top of the leaderboard.: https://ibb.co/09g7CCV

The newest variants to watch are MV.1 and especially recombinant XEC for the winter. XEC is really taking off in France and the UK is expecting doing some numbers with this. It's already hit 10% in some parts of Canada. It's at 2% so far in PA.: https://ibb.co/tDk0N5m

XEC was at 1% of random sequencing in the US at the beginning of September and at the end of the month was at 6%.

This doesn't seem like much but when you consider how blazingly FAST KP.3.1.1 is, this is thoroughbred level faster.

XEC is expected to grow steadily all fall and winter, and could end up being the troublesome winter variant.

That's all I have for now, until I see (but hopefully not) XEC potentially doing the numbers.

QUICK REMINDERS: Grab those tests kits available through the mail now and don't consume raw dairy!! 🍁🍁🍁

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #XEC #MV1

#Wastewater

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #mRNA #Novavax
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

9/16/2024

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

Hope you are enjoying this beautiful weather. ☀️😎☀️

__________
VOCs

Still, nothing much has changed, the top two variants which also make up the bulk of random sequencing are KP.3.1.1 and KP.2.3.:https://ibb.co/9NJNYpj

XEC is still around, though in PA it's still at the bottom of the sequencing list and doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

There is a new variant that is being watched closely, and that is MV.1. It's shown to be potentially as fast as KP.3.1.1 with some very strange, little-understood mutations. It's a good competitor to KP.3.1.1 and while not very different from current variants, the actual mutations are very concerning because some are so rare.: https://ibb.co/XSRQXVX

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Wastewater

Wastewater levels are HIGH according to WastewaterSCAN, and CDC also considers them HIGH (not "Very High".): https://ibb.co/bmqSXvn

On the PA wastewater dashboard we're overall stable with some increases, but on WastewaterSCAN Harrisburg again is rising quickly, which shows a need for source control.: https://ibb.co/9wCTx3s

___________

That's all I have right now as I run out the door today! Please get those updated flu/COVID vaccinations, stay safe and we'll keep an eye on MV.1 together! 👀 👀 👀

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #XEC #MV1

#Wastewater

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #mRNA #Novavax
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

1/2 for Sept. 9th, 2024

I hope you are having a healthy and productive late summer!☀️

__________
VOCs

The national mutation leaderboard hasn't changed much.: https://ibb.co/LP1L4LZ

There are no new mutations that are on the far horizon that can compete with KP.3.1.1 so far.

The closest competitor is the recombinant XEC, a combo of KS.1.1 and KP.3.1, and is maybe almost equally as fast as what we have now.

We have XEC already in PA.: https://ibb.co/JpnYfcJ

The good news is XEC, as I mentioned last time, has only 2 spike mutations different from KP.3.1.1, so any immunity granted against KP.x.y will also work very well against XEC.

Actually, the current versions are pretty stagnant. Stagnation is good as it gives us a breather, but it's also what happened between XBB and JN.1/KP.x.y.: https://ibb.co/BCqrTFN

Thanks to variant hunters, who constantly monitor virus genetics and then estimate growth rates (and some of which are not even paid to do this for us), we will have a few weeks to a month or two of any incoming fast, binding, or immune-evasive mutations.

Keep watching that space. It's important, especially as winter approaches.

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Wastewater

WastewaterSCAN still has our region at HIGH levels of SARS2.: https://ibb.co/wRCwRkK

Chester's numbers are not low, but much more manageable than in other areas. Harrisburg is doing much better as numbers keep going down there! Good work Hburg!: https://ibb.co/Pm9kF4H

Our region's numbers are going down after a peak already. This is a relief. We are still the HHS region with the lowest numbers.: https://ibb.co/3zcRKJL

PA, after quite a sizeable spike, is VERy quickly returning to numbers way below national average and more on par with the rest of the region.: https://ibb.co/VtVxDYX

We're doing something right. 💪

But remember, numbers are still in the moderate to HIGH range, so please keep working on source control.

According to CDC, there is NO state right now having anything less than "moderate" wastewater levels. Clearly this is defintely NOT a best-case scenario going into Fall.

Existing immune deficiency due to previous reinfections (and first time infections!) and already very high virus spread might make for quite a high-maintenance Fall and Winter this year.

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Kits, vaxes, etc.

Reminder that you can get 4 Federally funded tests kits by mail at the end of this month. Don't miss it!!

Covidtests.gov: https://aspr.hhs.gov/covid-19/test/Pages/default.aspx

There's also a tool from Vaccines.gov to find an mRNA KP.2 vaccination near you!!!

🔴Also reminder: if you have an uncomfortably strong reaction to mRNA vaccines, please do give Novavax a try. It's protein-based, and formulated much like a traditional tetanus shot, rather than mRNA.

https://us.novavaxcovidvaccine.com/find-a-vaccine

I am not in any way paid to promote Novavax. And I'm not the company President, but...I am in fact a client 😎

If you are unable to get Novavax, PLEASE.....get something.

🔴And gooooooo get a FLU SHOT too if you are able!

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Other Pathogens

:coronavirus: H5N1

There was a first case already of H5N1 infection in a person in Missouri, NOT linked, so far, to animal contact and not farm related.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/health/first-human-case-of-bird-flu-not-linked-to-animals/index.html

This is the current picture for H5N1. Found in 14 states.: https://ibb.co/pfrFxtT

This is ...pretty bad. This is getting progressively...kinda bad.

🔴Please DO NOT consume raw dairy products: raw eggs, undercooked/rare meat, unpasteurized dairy. Dippy eggs. Raw egg-based cookie dough. Just don't.

🔴Use extra caution with animals like rodents in your home, especially if you have to deal with them after they're trapped.

🔴Keep your cats indoors and dogs away from prey. H5N1 has a super-high kill rate especially in cats.

Stock up NOW on a few N95s (you will NOT want less than a genuine N95 for this thing), gloves, and MERV-13 filters for those CR boxes.

CDC can repeat "risk assessment low" all they want, we should NOT be screwing around with something than has an estimated baseline 20% kill rate, which is the reason I spend so much time on this subject in a SARS2 forum.

The current genetics of H5N1 is not scary, but giving this thing more chances to hit the lottery is the worst thing we could be doing now.

🔴Again: H5N1 cannot combine with the pathogen that causes COVID19, because one is a SARS and the other is an influenza. They are way too different from each other. But it CAN combine with influenza A and B....and we are entering that season soon.

We can do the best things in preparation NOW for a worst case scenario which means building up some basic PPE at home, avoiding exposure. Prepare =/= panic.

Please stay safe this coming Fall and keep that source control down!

☀️🍁☀️

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #XEC #FLuQUE

#Wastewater #Norovirus #Noro

#H5N1 #HPAI #BirdFlu

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #mRNA #Novavax
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon and Holiday, SARS2PAians!

🔴1/2 Sept/2/2024

I hope you're having a GREAT late summer. ☀️

There's not much going on that is new right now in VOC land. Top variants are still KP.3, descendats of JN.1.

KP.3 is FAST. Super fast. It's like a heat-seeking missle, getting a lot of people that have never had COVID before, for the first time.

Including me 🙄 which is why I didn't post last week. I apologize yet again.

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My stuff (should you for some weird reason be curious)

I tested + almost a week and a half ago and am STILL testing positive. I am doing everything possible to not give this thing air. I'm wearing an N95 outside all the time now and only going out if it's necessary. I have 2 Corsi-Rosenthal boxes that go every moment I'm home to protect my pets. I'm feeling OK but not 100%...maybe 75%.

I am determined to keep testing every day as long as it's financially doable.

I'm monitoring my symptoms, both acute, long term, and especially cognitive (most scary and hardest to tell) for any further changes.

I think I have Novavax (I am not paid to write this, I wish I was 🙄) to thank for not being worse than this because it's been clinically proven to grant extra protection to upper respiratory passages, which is ground zero for where SARS2 enters the body...(at least against the older variants).: https://ibb.co/1fCjZvr

BA.5 Study Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10451060/

AGAIN...if you have an uncomfortably strong reaction to mRNA, please give Novavax a try as overall, it's been proven to cause fewer side effects AND be more cross-protective between current mutations.

But if you do not have access to Novavax...Please. Get something.

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XEC

As far as XEC (which is a recombinant of KP.3.3 and KS.1), it's still being monitored for spread as it's the only thing that can possibly even keep up with KP.3.x.y now.

The good thing is, it has a difference of only two spike changes from KP.3.1.1 (the top variant blazing around now) so vaccines will protect VERY well against it, too.: https://ibb.co/9yfCqFc

Both Novavax (JN.1 formula, the "trunk" of the current top variant tree) and mRNA (KP.2 formula, a "branch" of the tree that most closely resembles current variants) are very good matches to the top variants going around and they're all out for scheduling right now.: https://ibb.co/1RFn3HF

:canparrot: GO GET VAXED! (...and for flu, too!)

Also get those 4 Federally-funded test kits through the mail when they're available in late September!: https://aspr.hhs.gov/covid-19/test/Pages/default.aspx

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Wastewater

Wastewater numbers are still VERY HIGH according to CDC and WastewaterSCAN nationally.: https://ibb.co/Wx4jyKy

PA's wastewater numbers continue to rise:https://ibb.co/QPfQvmK

...while the rest of the HHS regions' numbers have seemingly hit peak. According to CDC we've been bumped up to the VERY HIGH slot.: https://ibb.co/QczqW3m

Harrisburg is again getting hit really hard with viral spread, being at the top in wasteewater right now out of HHS Region 3. Please stay safe and wear a quality well-fitting respirator in crowded areas or places with suboptimal ventilation!

Continued in next post.....

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #XEC #FLuQUE

#Wastewater #Norovirus #Noro

#H5N1 #HPAI #BirdFlu

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

I hope this cooler weather is bringing you some comfort after that ridiculously hot and humid past few weeks 😖

__________
VOCs

Nationally, KP.3.1.1 is still at the top of the leaderboard, as expected. This is one superfast variant, and also immune evasive to previous vaccination and infection due to antigenic drift.: https://ibb.co/rx5H4KB

One mutation that is closely being watched is XEC, a recombinant of KP.3.3 and KS.1.1.: https://ibb.co/bzFQX1j

Numbers are rather low right now: https://ibb.co/9bKFtWF

But it has a bit faster relative growth than what we're dealing with now.: https://ibb.co/S3701rR

It's already in PA and in 11 other States.: https://ibb.co/CW82KYL

It's not **superfast**, but if it's different enough than the upcoming vaccines AND existing immune priming, it has a lot of potential to add to the already high numbers and make this winter really.....somethin'. 😖

__________
Test Kits

:canparrot: 4 more Federally funded home delivered test kits are going to be available in late September.: https://ibb.co/L56XdjP

Keep watching Covidtests.gov for more info!: https://aspr.hhs.gov/covid-19/test/Pages/default.aspx

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Go Get a Vax or Two (soon)

KP.x.y based vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer have been approved and are steadily on their way to distribution; Novavax (probably JN.1) is coming soon, too.

🔴Reminder: If you have a very strong, rather inconvenient reaction to mRNA vaxes, please do give Novavax a try. It is more like a traditional tetanus shot in mechanics and is widely reported as causing little to no side-effects!

I do not work with any of these manufacturers (believe me I'd be making a looooooot more money if I did 💀) but I do have experience with both Novavax and mRNA shots if anyone has questions.

No matter what is available to you or not, please DO get something.

🔴Also get those flu shots coming up next month!

(Mostly because...well...the medical community does not want to deal with your entirely preventable severe flu on top of dealing with COVID patients and other people needing medical care.)

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Wastewater

Folks...nationally, wastewater is really high right now, especially in the West. The map looked like this last week when PA was lower.: https://ibb.co/DCsjJys

The current CDC wastewater map has PA at "high" levels now. The kids are almost ready to go back to school if not there right now, and source control is going to be very important.: https://ibb.co/10SGmBc

WastewaterSCAN has the entire country as experiencing HIGH wastewater levels.

Every classroom should have a Corsi-Rosenthal box in it to reduce illness. There should be no silly excuses not to give these to kids as we enter the fall, especially if you actually really do care about learning loss.

The regional wastewater trends looked like this: https://ibb.co/rG8HnmY

....where the East was noticeably lower than the rest of the country, but now Eastern levels have not peaked yet and are still going up even though the West might have peaked.

The current trend map looks like this: https://ibb.co/Dp2BWSn

.....with the other HHS regions peaking (hopefully). We're still rising but hopefully we'll peak soooooooon and that will be that.

Region 3 is looking much better as of right now, and Harrisburg is HANDLING IT and bringing those numbers way down!! Good job Hburg!: https://ibb.co/gTJr241

I hope you have a safe and loss-free late Summer and early Fall!

☀️🍁☀️

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3

#Wastewater

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

Once again, I am requesting you accept my apology for shifting some posts to Monday instead of Friday. The past few weeks were...somethin'.

And I hope you are enjoying your SUMMER! ☀️

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:ms_arrow_right: Wastewater

Nothing has really changed tho, wastewater numbers are going WAY UP nationally and kids aren't even back to school yet.: https://ibb.co/X555c7w

Wearing a quality respirator should be considered in crowds, in places of low ventilation AND in ANY close contact...even outside.

Controlling this stuff at the source (which is other people already infected) NOW will prevent LEARNING LOSS this winter.

We don't want LEARNING LOSS.....do we? 🤔

While regionally, our Northeast region is still doing much, much better than the rest of the country, and Chester is doing much better than a few weeks ago, Harrisburg is still AT THE TOP of wastewater results for our region. Please respirator-up and be aware of social contacts in H-burg!: https://ibb.co/bHXf3SP

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:ms_arrow_right: Other Pathogens

🔴Mpox

There's....um...still quite a lot going on that's not SARS2.

Mpox has been declared a Public Health Emergency of international Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Org.

This is NOT...N O T the same beast as in 2022.

This is a different clade (Clade II) which is many times more deadly than the 2022 version.

Mpox Clade II has been separated out on WastewaterSCAN and you can see testing results for it there.: https://ibb.co/WDMzmjM

Yes there are some vaccines for it,: https://x.com/sailorrooscout/status/1824100811351244818

and they are both from smallpox as Mpox is in the same family and they are genetically similar enough to be cross-effective.

One is JYNNEOS (Imvanex, IMVAMUNE) which is non-replicating and pretty much safe for everyone. The ACTUAL smallpox vaccine is live virus which makes it...not really all that ideal because you have to be soooooo much more careful with it, but STILL effective for life as long as exposure remains low.

Mpox is not new and there are effective antivirals against it; however this clade is NEW and its high death rate is of concern.

We MUST ramp up vaccine production against this disease.

🔴H5N1

H5N1 is a version of Influenza A and is also separated out on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/LZpj7pT

There are still new herds testing positive for H5N1 (Bird Flu/Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza/HPAI).

We MUST pull out all the stops and keep testing our food supply chain, especially pigs. Pigs are asymptomatic against H5N1 (which is like the woooooorst news I will probably learn this entire year) and yet they are the ideal mix of human-like and animal-like genomes that could trigger dangerous mutations.: https://ibb.co/HBNpXVW

DO NOT consume non-pasteurized dairy.

DO NOT consume undercooked meat and eggs (no dippy eggs, y'all!)

You might want to consider Ultra-Pasteurized dairy instead of "pasteurized" dairy and plant-based meat replacements.

🔴Cats have an especially VERY high death rate from H5N1, with end results similar to rabies (massive brain swelling and damage). Please keep your kitties indoors and away from dead birds.

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:ms_arrow_right: Fire/PM2.5

So far so good with wildfire smoke over here in PA. While most of Canada is enveloped in lower air quality, we are so far not in the windpath of it.

Keep those Corsi-Rosenthal boxes handy in case the wind takes a turn for the worst for us. Keeping windows tightly closed is good for wildfire smoke but terrible for pathogen control. CR boxes can make up for this loss of filteration!

Honestly, everyone should have a CR box at home, and every classroom should have one. Especially this winter.

:coronavirus: This winter is going to be...somethin'...if we don't do some source control NOW.

:canparrot: We can do this with some empathy and a LOT of source control!

Please have a safe Summer and upcoming Fall! ☀️🍁☀️

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA #KP3 #S31Del

#Mpox #Wastewater

#H5N1 #HPAI

#pm2_5 #Fires #wildfires

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you're staying cool. Or at least dehumidified in this murky summer air. 😖

Reminder: I'll try to be better "approving" posts on Reddit in the future. I've approved of all previous posts so they should be more accessible now. I apologize not doing this sooner, I had a whole six months of family emergencies (not COVID) and those details kinda got lost along the way.

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VOCs

Nationally, the fastest mover so far, KP.3.1.1, has taken over the top slot in the variant leaderboard between Friday and today.

Friday: https://ibb.co/3Cx513s
Today: https://ibb.co/QCx4LPW

Genetic shift and waning immunity is causing a substantial uptick in ED visits in most States on the Eastern half of the contiguous US.: https://ibb.co/SncRcpj

There are still no new variants on the horizon that can compete with KP.3.x.y. so far, but it is blazing fast and immune resistant due to genetic mutations.

__________
Wastewater

Nationally, levels are now HIGH on every monitoring site, and in most States. They're actaully pretty much even with what is usually a winter outbreak.

The wastewater levels by HHS region keep rising, though the Northeast is the lowest of all regions.: https://ibb.co/hmYGbJ8

Please consider wearing a quality respirator in enclosed rooms and crowded areas so we can get these numbers down.

Compared to other areas though Pennsylvania is doing well, well below national averag: https://ibb.co/N9SM8Rb

but the Harrisburg area is getting hit particularly hard right now.: https://ibb.co/JnYLNVx

JN.1/KP.2 vaccines are supposed to be available starting late this month or September for all major manufacturers (Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax).

:canparrot: PLEASE GET VACCINATED as soon as these are available.

__________
Other Issues

The fires in Canada and Western US are underway and spreading dangerous pollutants. PM2.5 levels are tolerable in PA right now, but remember respirators and Corsi-Rosenthal boxes will definitely help if things get out of control again.: https://ibb.co/ZhDFzvb

We are getting closer and closer to human-to-human transmission for H5N1, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI/H5N1).

:coronavirus: Please consider reducing dairy products in your diet and DO NOT drink or eat raw or undercooked animal products AT ALL.

:coronavirus: Consider moving up from "pasteurized" to "ultra-pasteurized" milk.

:coronavirus: Consider replacing meat with plant-based alternatives. (They can be delicious too!)

I hope we can cooperate NOW to make this winter healthy and safe for all of us.

We can prevent so much life, economic, and learning loss with jsut a little precaution and oding SOME form of source control.

Have a great (and dehumidified UGH) week! 🔥☀️🔥

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#KP3 #S31Del

#HPAI #H5N1

#Wildfire #CanadianFires #FireMonitoring #PM2_5

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

I hope you're enjoying the beautiful weather today!! ☀️☀️☀️

__________
VOCs

Nationally, nothing really new as far as VOCs go, we still have KP.2.3 in the lead, with a very tight race for the top 5 slots on the leaderboard in random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/gjbxpV0

According to Sato Lab in Japan, KP.2.3 is blazingly fast (along with LB.1) and bears a mutation (S:S31del) that makes it immune resistant and more infectious.: https://x.com/SystemsVirology/status/1806464518270369889

Numbers rising already worldwide and in the US from these S-deletion mutations.

In PA, the LB.x.y set seems to be more successful than the KP.2.3 set. This doesn't mean we don't have both out there, but LB.1.7 is showing up more often in recent random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/s3VTsy4

KP.3.1 is also very fast, and the extremely tight race shows that this is a result of mutations that are ALL very fast and infectious.

In NY/NJ, LB.1.7 is at the top of the chart just like in PA. KP.2.3 is right behind it and other fast mutations are gaining, like LP.1.: https://ibb.co/HGDhcjm

Walgreens still has a huge portion of the lower 48 states in the highest positivity growth bracket.: https://ibb.co/1b64Kns

In PA, we're stable right now but numbers are comparable to a mid-winter illness level, and these are only the reported cases.: https://ibb.co/k8VV8Cv

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Wastewater

The PAWSS has a lot of increases across the board. Moderate increases in Allegheny, Indiana, Centre, Cumberland, MontCo and around Philly, and Delaware Cos. Some HIGH increases in Monroe Co.: https://ibb.co/JkWTcfh

🔴Vaccines with newer mutation formulas should be available in mid-July for Novavax and earliest Fall for mRNA (Moderna/Pfizer etc.). Moderna has announced they're interested in a JN.1 formula along with Novavax and is looking to start getting in arms in August. Pfizer is still leaning toward KP.2.

The FDA needs to be pushed to get these to kids BEFORE THE SCHOOL YEAR STARTS.

Please get you and your kid(s) vaccinated. Don't be That Guy.

Get whatever is available, as they'll definitely be more effective than year-old XBB shots.

If you have a strong reaction to the mRNA shots though you might want to switch to Novavax (I did!!) but it's usually harder to find.

That's all I have this week as not much has changed even though numbers are still going up. Consider wearing a quality respirator in crowds and in places with poor ventilation.

I hope you have a BEAUTIFUL day and a healthy early summer! ☀️☀️☀️

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#KP3 #LB1 #DeFLiRT #S31Del

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands
#VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

I hope you are staying safe under this unusually hot weather. Please drink lots of water, pace yourself in the hottest hours of the day, and avoid caffeine! 🔥☀️🔥

If you must keep windows and doors closed during peak heat hours, run that Corsi-Rosenthal box to keep air clean.

Extremely hot weather precautions (closing doors and windows) are diametrically opposed to SARS2 control, much like midwinter heat retention and smoke prevention, but source control is still possible!

__________
VOCs

Nationally, KP.3.x.y and LB.x.y are the latest fastest variants. KP.2.3 is at the top, just barely, at almost 6% of national random sequencing, and KP.2 is already on the way out from the upcoming takover of KP.3 and LB.x variants.: https://ibb.co/fSZ7WRn

KP.3.1 is already in 3rd place and KP.3.3 already in fourth. KP.3.x and LB.x already, together, makes the largest proportion of random sequencing.

We are collectively too slow to react usefully to this virus as of now. National numbers are starting to go up from the sheer immune escape of these latest variants.

IN PA, lots of troublesome variants here already. KP.2.3 and KP.3.1 already tied for FIRST place here at 13% of random sequencing each. LB.1 and LB.1.7 right behind.: https://ibb.co/ccCmVbX

:coronavirus: :coronavirus: :coronavirus: Please consider masking up with a quality respirator in crowded places so these immune-escaping variants are kept at bay....ESPECIALLY during intense heat which makes keeping doors and windows open harder, and BEFORE JN.1/KP.3 vaccinations are available. :coronavirus: :coronavirus: :coronavirus:

In NY/NJ, LB.1.7 already at the top of the chart with a solid 10% of share. These new mutations are FAST due to immune escape. Practice source control to have a healthy Summer!: https://ibb.co/QNj7YJy

The latest CDC NOWCAST reflects all this...it shows KP.3 at a solid 33% of new infections. :coronavirus::coronavirus:Together with LB.1, these two are estimated to at least HALF of current infections.:coronavirus::coronavirus:: https://ibb.co/6RCStZs

We can see the impact of immune escape variants in other metrics, too.

Walgreens already has a majority of Eastern and Southern states at the highest change in positivity ratio from the previous week, and has for a while now.: https://ibb.co/XjDY2DP

In PA, Walgreens has a third of new tests showing positives. Testing is horribly low but the proportion is going up every week, and more tests will probably be done as people feel they need them done.: https://ibb.co/rvvB06B

CDC Early indicators show definite increases in test positivity and esecially ED visits, up 12.6% since last week!: https://ibb.co/0MzPY8q

CDC has ED visits growing nationally. This is due to immune escape of new variants. PA is showing moderate increases in ED visits due to SARS2 diagnoses. The overall level is still minimal, but new variants will keep bumping these numbers up of people ignore source control.: https://ibb.co/3mnzXgj

You can see the obvious advantage KP.3 has over older variants in this chart (the leftmost variant): https://ibb.co/BgjGkTr

Chart by virologist Benji Murrell.: https://ibb.co/vHj7RKQ

Sadly, we remain one of the States reporting the highest proportional deaths in a three-month period. 225 people have passed in the past 3 months from COVID.: https://ibb.co/G0phq72

__________
Wastewater

WastewaterSCAN has national levels in SARS2 as HIGH in all regions.: https://ibb.co/jJSHb4V

In PA, lots of stations showing moderate increases in SARS2 material and increases are especially high in central Westmoreland Co. Pitt and Philly remain stable. No doubt this is due to newer immune-escaping variants.: https://ibb.co/qxfwg59

In our region, individual stations are showing medium and low levels individually but with a definite trend of many stations toward "high" levels.: https://ibb.co/tQFq4sZ

As immune-evasive mutations continue to permeate the State it's going to get increasingly important to perform some sort of source control. Mask up, stay home when sick, and run those Corsi-Rosenthal boxes if you need that A/C on!! 🔥☀️🔥

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA
#Pennsylvania #PA
#FLuQE #Q493E #NOWCAST
#KP3 #LB1
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Muggy Morning SARS2PAians! ☁️💐☁️

I hope you are having a safe Spring!

#VOCs

The top news lately are the newest variants causing country-wide summer waves including Spain: https://ibb.co/hRpvjt5

and Portugal: https://ibb.co/khTtyJX

They are KP.3.x.y and LB.x.y.

These new immune evasive variants are filling up hospitals and causing notable increases in deaths.

KP.3 is now the variant "grandfather" that is the fastest, the most immune evasive, and the most easily bound to cells. Specifically, the most watched upcoming variant is its grandchild, KP.3.1.1.

The newest variants that have a very good chance of causing a sizeable increase in numbers, if not a full blown-out wave, are variants of KP.3 that already have immune evasive mutations (FLuQE) but also have an advantageous specific spike deletion (S:S31del).

These new and fastest variants are immune evasive to BOTH current vaccinations, AND prior infections.

Nationally, KP.2 is still just barely at the top of the leaderboard. KP.2.3 is right behind it, already a variant that is being watched.: https://ibb.co/p0d8G8n

🔴KP.3.1.1 is absolutely blazing fast and burning through Spain, Portugal and other countries, and is part of KP-DEL31.

_____

NOTE: "KP-DEL31" is gonna be my nickname for it, not variant hunters or virologists. Just to call it something easily condensed and recognizeable for now. They might decide on a different nickname soon. These names are just for convenience. (You don't call your cousin Mister James Robert Smith every time, do you? You call him JimBob or Smitty. It just makes talking easier.)

_____

I've highlighted FLiRT in pink on the national screenshot but I'll drop it soon as KP-DEL31 becomes more and more relevant.

There's no specific results for PA on the Tableau site. Probably not enough testing here.

In NY/NJ, I've highlighted KP-DEL31 in green on the NY/NJ leaderboard, and as you can see, all the top 5 variants there have this very important spike deletion. But KP.3.1.1 is the variant to keep eyes on.: https://ibb.co/Jcv0rF7

KP.3.1.1 is already found (in only a few days!) in TX, NY, CA, CO, NJ, WA, and VA.

🔴If you've dropped wearing respirators for now you might want to reconsider putting them back on as KP.3.1.1 makes gains and spring moves along.

________________

#Wastewater

Wastewater has returned to HIGH levels in the Eastern and Southern states. KP.2, KP.3 and LB.x.y variants are working together on driving this.: https://ibb.co/0nHqQPS

In our region, specifically testing in Maryland is showing a return to higher levels.: https://ibb.co/99MSpy0

The PA wastewater dashboard is showing LARGE increases in Philly, and sizeable increases in Centre and Indiana counties.: https://ibb.co/0J14Tty

MASK UP, oh my Philly ❤️️!

________________

#Vaccines

Whoa I had a whole angry thing typed out here and juuuuuuust checked back on Twitter, and Dr. Eric Topol wrote just 2 hrs ago that the US FDA has changed its decision for the upcoming vaccine base!!: https://ibb.co/xzB6GVb

The newest mRNA vaccines will be based on KP.2 and NOT JN.1!

This is a wise decision and fantastic news!!

This will certainly better prepare us for Summer.

(NOTE: **Novavax** will have a JN.1 based booster. Novavax is completely different as it has proven effective through multiple years with ONE base so that vaccine will probably not have to be changed as often.)

_______________
🔴Even with vaccines, there are always other things we can do to practice source control!

keep those windows OPEN

wear a respirator

keep the air clean

move meetings outside

work from home

build a Corsi-Rosenthal box

stay home if you are sick!

Continue to have a great and safe Spring!! 💐💐💐

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA #Pennsylvania #PA
#FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t
#FLuQE #Q493E
#KP2 #KP3 #LB1 #Moderna #Pfizer #Novavax
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

@jmcrookston
Apologies, this screen interface had me misinterpreting.

Yes, they're acting as if there were no reasonable ways to reduce or prevent deaths and injuries from Covid.

#MaskUp
#IndoorAirQuality
#WasteWaterMonitoring
#PublicHealthCommunication
#StayHomeIfSick

Update for 6/7/2024!

Good morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you're enjoying this beautiful Spring 💐💐💐

__________
VOCs

Nationally, KP.2 barely holding on to the top slot on the leaderboard at 8.22%. Fast, immune-evasive LB.1 is directly behind and most likely will take over in a week or less.: https://ibb.co/Q6ZZhsN

Immune-evasive KP.3 is also on the way up.

In PA, KP.3 and LB.1 has not been found in hte (horribly low) random testing we're doing. LB.1 did show up earlier, and "not finding" doesn't mean it's not around, but to not find such a fast variant in qualtities to put it on the PA board is promising.: https://ibb.co/ZN8Nrfp

In NY/NJ, LB.1 has easily displaced KP.2 for the top slot, with LB.1 at almost 17% of share and KP.2 behind at 9%.: https://ibb.co/mRR03KB

Lots of new mutations added in the past few weeks to the latest CDC NOWCAST.: https://ibb.co/b7y1mXb

Even on here, KP.3 is shown to be predicted as the TOP circulating variant, with KP.2 sandwiched between it and also-new-and-evasive LB.1.

Due to antigenic drift/effective ACE2 binding/communal laxness in prevention, this is probably going to bump numbers up for the summer.

Eevn though numbers a still low nationally, Walgreens COVID19 dashboard has already had large increases of positivity in a large number of States.: https://ibb.co/WHcFZK3

Pennsylvania has been considered at a large increase for quite a while already on there.: https://ibb.co/mc0CbPq

JN.1.50, KP.3.2 and KP.2.3 (yes those numbers are weirdly reversed) are also very fast, very immune-landscape-elusive mutes to watch, too.

I hope that I'm wrong but it seems that we'll be drowning in a soup of fast varaints for the fall/winter. My opinion only: This winter might be...something else...if the wrong vaccine formula is used.

__________
Wastewater

Though numbers in PA are still relatively low, WastewaterSCAN has SARS2 levels at MEDIUM. Maryland/DC is starting to tick upward fast.: https://ibb.co/55JvPbt

PA WSS has McKean County showing heavy SARS2 material increases in wastewater, and moderstew increases in Philly.: https://ibb.co/8Pdz6MR

__________
Vaccine News

The most reliable viral geneticists and epidemiologists I'm watching has already said a JN.1 vaccine will be outdated.: https://ibb.co/vBgbr2g

🔴THIS IS NOT DUE TO VACCINES BEING INHERENTLY INEFFECTIVE. Do not spread that disnformation.

This is due to the superfast antigenic drift of SARS2, and also us being too slow to communally react to this virus. If a JN.1 vaccine is produced it will hardly effect any useful protection at all.: https://ibb.co/1dFTRKm

The fast rate which this virus gains mutations is absolutely not slowing down, and will most likely never slow down.

It is VITAL that corporate science (as in, the corporate producers of vaccines) keep up with mutations and if need be, drop outdated mutation bases FAST to change formula to one that will actually work effectively.

It is NECESSARY to even being the conversation now with KP.2.

We cannot afford to be slow in considering vaccination formulas or distribution.

Keeping the air clean is decidedly easier in better weather, but if numbers are going up in your area, PLEASE use some sort of source control. Wear a quality respirator, stay home if you are sick, test repeatedly with symptoms!

Enjoy your Spring and keep that air clean! 💐💐💐

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA #Pennsylvania #PA #FLiRT #F456L #R346T
#spike_f456l #spike_r346t
#Q493E

#KP2 #KP3 #LB1

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

update for 5/31/2024!!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you are enjoying your Spring! 💐💐💐

I just have an update on VOCs as I have to run out the door, and also not much has changed in terms of numbers yet. I'm so sorry this is all I have time for right now.

Nationally, for VOCs, we have a lot of fast movers that might bump up numbers for the summer as they have elsewhere globally already. Looks like the fastest are going to be KP.3 and especially LB.1.: https://ibb.co/wzcJ05J

While we don't have any immensely increased numbers so far, nationally they are starting to slowly rise, and source control will be needed as these immune evasive and FAST variants catch on.

In PA, we have quite a few of the FLiRT variants (in pink) and upcoming immune evasive variants (in teal) coming up. Numbers for these new variants are low but might rise steadily as the spring goes on.: https://ibb.co/h1XS2hP

IN NY/NJ, LB.1 is already at the top of the chart 👀 and the speed of its rise is incredible considering how fast current variants are already!: https://ibb.co/dpRDrPd

Watching these new mutations will give a big clue on when to tighten up source control.

In the meantime, keep that air clean and just for future safety, keep a stock of N95s handy for H5N1 as it spreads through more and more domesticated animal species, the lastest which is alpacas. This is starting to make epidemiologists and viral geneticists kinda nervous.

Insist on full disclosure of animal health/testing/sequencing from farms. You might consider non-dairy milk, or maybe ultra-pasteurized milk. Another option is UHT, shelf-stable milk in sterile packaging (like Parmalat).

:coronavirus: DO NOT CONSUME RAW MILK OR UNDERCOOKED MEAT.:coronavirus:

Hope to have more time to do this on Moday (but not sure) so have a great weekend and be safe! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1 #JNOne50

#IFYouAreDrinkingRawMilk__STOP__DOING__IT

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/24/2024!

Good morning SARS2PAians! (well, afternoon by the time I got all this ready)

I hope you are having a BEAUTIFUL and healthy day. 💐💐💐

_____
VOCs

Nationally, KP.2 is in the lead so far, easily displacng JN.1 variants.: https://ibb.co/JCWtxdr

KP.3 and LB.1 (DeFLiRT) are making FAST gains in the leaderboard, now up to around 5% each nationally.

They are still the top two successful variants that show great potential to take over from even KP.2.: https://ibb.co/kxHkfV1

🔴JN.1.50 is new, and was just designated on 5/18 and though genetically it's as fast as LB.1 and KP.3, it remains to be seen in meatspace how it will spread.

In PA, JN.1 still in the lead here in random sequencing at 20% and KP.2 behind it at 13%.: https://ibb.co/G7Nnft5

Unfortunately KP.3 has been found here. So we now have BOTH very fast DeFLiRT variants here for the summer, KP.3 and LB.1. Take care, keep windows open, clean the air, wear a quality respirator and be aware of social contacts. These two variants might push the numbers up this summer.

In NY/NJ, KP.2 in the lead and look at that LB.1....in second place at 10% of random testing already. Yikes. It's been making very fast gains for a while now there.: https://ibb.co/8xRfkkh

Some parts of Jersey have noticeable upticks of matarial concentraion on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/7STgtLZ

__________
Wastewater

Trying to get as much info as possible here since almsot everything useful is being discontinued. 🙄

SARS2 has been bumped up to MEDIUM nationally on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/Wf5MdxN

There are noticeable upticks starting to happen in the Harrisburg and Chester areas.: https://ibb.co/g3HQZp0

__________
Non-SARS2 Pathogens

Gastro pathogens Noro and Rotavirus are still in the HIGH category on WastewaterSCAN. Please wash hands carefully, wash fruits and veg, and be aware of kitchen cleanliness discipline to avoid cathing these bugs. Mostly because they're just gross 🤢

🔴Concerning H5N1 (HPAI, "bird flu"), we are NOT in flu season, so seeing upticks for Influenza A is extremely concerning.

This is what the FluA graphs SHOULD look like now in a normal post-FLuA season.: https://ibb.co/X4Q8szS

H5N1 is an influenza A. It's been upgraded to MEDIUM on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/wKC300x

However, the online tool makes no differentiation between H5N1 and other types of FLuA. It also cannot tell live virus from inactivated virus or its fragments.

It's extremely telling, though, that the highest concentration of FluA is located exatly where herd breakouts have or are occuring, mostly in the middle of the country in the plains corridor.

To reduce the risk of contracting, transmlitting, or allowing H5N1/HPAI to mutate,

🔴🔴🔴DO NOT DRINK RAW MILK.🔴🔴🔴

I don't give a flying fart if it's legal to sell/buy here in PA. Do NOT be that guy. Do NOT encourage this pathogen to mutate and DO NOT endanger your own life or everyone else's by consuming raw or unpasteurized dairy products.

Use caution in handling raw dairy products, especially meat and milk. Pasteurization has been proven to kill FluA and fluA is very sensitive to heat, but please use caution, fully cook raw meat, and use good sanitary habits when working with raw farm products.

As always, some method of source control is always good to help keep these pathogens in check whether they're just annoying and gross OR have a high kill rate.

I hope you stay safe, enjoy the open windows in Spring, and ARE NOT DRINKING RAW MILK.

Have a great week!!

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1 #JNOne50

#IFYouAreDrinkingRawMilk__STOP__DOING__IT

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good morning SARS2PAians!

I hope your very cloudy annd humid Spring is going well. 💐💐💐

The only thing I have right now are VOC visuals.

Nationally, KP.2 in the lead at 12% of random sequencing. The FLiRT variants are not far behind and VERy fast variants KP.3 and LB.1 are still making fast gains even after only a few days.: https://ibb.co/309Ygcj

In PA, classic JN.1 is still at the lead here. We don't have KP.3 here but we do have fast mover LB.1 which is now over 5% of random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/CpyDWkH

IN NY/NJ, immune evasive variants LB.1 already at over 7% of testing and KP.3 almost at 5%.: https://ibb.co/LZ1hZM7

__________
Wastewater

Biobot has released a statement saying they are stopping keeping up their COVID-19 wastwater visuals. There's still WastewaterSCAN but only three sheds are on there.: https://ibb.co/2tYPPcm

https://biobot.io/from-raw-data-to-actionable-insights-biobots-evolution-of-public-data-sharing/

This is another removal of a GREAT tool that helped everyone stay informed, and gave a heads-up when to buckle down on source control issues.

A very good potential replacement for Biobot is Iowa Covid-19 Tracker and I'll start to try to get familiar with that as soon as I can sit down to do it so the vizzes might look very different soon.: https://iowacovid19tracker.org/

I hope to have more info on Friday, and until then have a GREAT week and safe Spring! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1

#Biobot #IowaCOVIDTracker

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/13/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

I hope your chilly Spring is going well! 💐💐💐

Just a very quick VOC update as there is absolutely nothing really updated to work with this week 🙄

While numbers are still very very low right now (which is great), the virology world and variant hunters are watching a few new mutations lately.

The two most important coming up are KP.3 and LB.1.

Globally, KP.3 is already in 2nd place, very high in places like the UK and Australia, easily growing past previous JN.1 incarnations AND FLiRT variants.: https://ibb.co/ch19ph8

It carries a very rare mutation (S:Q493E) that enhances its fitness and will enable it to grow much fater than previous JN.1 incarnations.: https://ibb.co/9vx0JTn

It is IMMUNE EVASIVE compared to all current acquired immunity, both by vaccination and infection. It's fast enough and evasive enough to probably bump up numbers in June or July.

In the US, KP.3 is in relatively low numbers right now: https://ibb.co/XpRF6D6

BUT KP.3 is growing very quickly as the previous variant snapshot show when put together:

4/01-- 0.34%

4/05-- 0.44%

4/12-- 0.63%

4/19-- 1.17%

4/25-- 1.55%

5/03-- 1.64%

5/06-- 2.23%

5/12-- 3.20%

(This is fast in a landscape that's already thoroughly saturated very very vast variants.)

In PA, variant sequencers have not seen KP.3 pop up yet (doesn't mean it's not here, sequencing and testing are soooooo loooow but at least it's not showing up on the leaderboard.): https://ibb.co/4YzwNFN

However, LB.1 (from the FLiRT group but with an important deletion {S:531del}) is another very fast variant that is probably enough to bump up numbers too.

The summer will probably be FLiRT + FLiRT children vs. KP.3 (nicknamed FLuQE) + FLuQE children.

Those two mutation classes together wil probably start pushing up numbers again in early June.

Unfortunately that's all I have for now as it's getting harder and harder to find updated info.

I hope your Spring continues to be healthy! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/6/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

Yes I have an update today aaaaand unfortunately that's kinda never a good thing. You DON'T want to hear from me here!

(I am asking you once again....to please make this hobby of mine obsolete 🙏😔 Filter the air, be aware of social contacts, wear a quality respirator, and wash hands for the gastro stuff.)

__________
VOCs

We are dealing with FLiRT now, but there are two groups of incoming variants that are becoming concerningly successful in other countires including right next door in Canada.: https://ibb.co/fkG3gpg

One is an earlier-new group consisting of JN.1.32 and KP.3.

Another, far off-new yet, is KW.1 and its child, KW.1.1.

All of these variants have been proven faster than FliRT in Australia, UK, etc. KP.3 is exceptionally fast.

🔴Due to antigenic drift, vaccines and previous infection are NOT as effective to protect you with these upcoming variants.

🔴This does NOT mean vaccines don't work, so do not go spreading that. (You should also be mightily shunned for spreading that.)

Again: Vaccines are safe and effective...but these incoming variants are starting to yet again DRIFT TOO FAR AWAY from the current XBB vaccines.

I've highlighted the upcoming concerning variants in teal, as opposed to the FLiRT group which is in pink. KW.1.1 isn't above the fold yet nationally at 0.16% so I made a note on the image so I remember to keep track of this number.

Nationally, JN.1.7 and JN.1 are a tthe top of the board. JN.1.32 at 2.23% and KP.3 also at 2.23%. KW.1 at a little under half a percent. These numbers might be higher in actual meatspace because there is not nearly enough labwork/sequencing available to make laser-focused predictions.: https://ibb.co/bRpvDP7

In PA, we do not have group 2 of the far-off variants yet here but we do have KP.2. Gotta watch this one.: https://ibb.co/3kPMBwM

In NY/NJ, whoa, KP.3 already clocking in at over 3%, in the top 10 of random sequencing already. I haven't been watching this one so when I have more time I'll go back and check this one out.: https://ibb.co/qM7C4CY

KP.2 already at over 10%. That's fast, and antigenic drift is absolutely not helping here as any protection we might have had against this new stuff is starting to slip away.

We might be in for a bump up in numbers this spring, as something similar last year happened too.

Just giving everyone a heads-up on what we might be in for this spring/summer.

We can keep it in control by practicing some very comon-sense, easy things!

Have a safe spring!! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l

#KP2 #KP3 #JNOne32 #JN132 #KS1

#KW1 #KW11

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Morning/Afternoon SARS2PAians!!

I hope you are enjoying this GORGEOUS Spring weather 💐💐💐

1/2 Update for May 3, 2024!

__________
:all_the_things: State of the Subreddit/Fediverse posts:

There's not much new to report for COVID right now except some closely watched new mutations, so basically TL;DR is that COVID levels are very very low, enjoy it but please keep source control safety always on the backburner.

So. I don't mean to only have this as a once-a-week thing but it's kind of turning into that. I also don't mean to have people waste their time checking in here if I don't post, but I'm always hesitant to call it a once-a-week-thing as COVID is so volatile and mutations can always manifest something very weird in a short amount of time.

I have no idea when info will be available so I'm keeping it a "twice-a-week thing", Monday and Friday but sometimes I just don't have enough info/anything new/time for a Monday, so Friday is always much better for a full post for me.

I hope you continue to find this informative useful and I suuuuuper apologize if you check in and I don't post. 🙏

But even better, go check out the links for yourself and follow people smarter than me for COVID stuff!

__________
VOCs

Nationally, JN.1 and JN.1.7 still at the top of the leaderboard. FLiRT variants JN.1.4 and KP.2 keeps chipping away at their lead.: https://ibb.co/JqWkBSD

KP.2 seems to be the fastest mover of the whole FLiRT mutation block and the one the virology world is keeping their eyes on.

In PA, we don't have KP.2 showing up on Rajnarayanan's Tableau site so far, whcih is good but we still have quite a few FLiRTs here.: https://ibb.co/vP5yH4G

In NY/NJ, we can see here KP.2 has climbed above all the other FLiRTs, is in 4th place at >8% and is right behind JN.1 now.: https://ibb.co/ZzLcRxJ

The WHO is now looking to JN.1 being the next mutation that will be the base of the newest COVID vaccine.: https://www.who.int/news/item/26-04-2024-statement-on-the-antigen-composition-of-covid-19-vaccines

🔴PLEASE GET VACCINATED if available. Don't be a tuff guy. Go get it.

Upcoming fast variants are KP.3 and JN.1.32👀, which are not FLiRTs but very fast. I have them highlighted in teal on the charts as they are both already up to almost 5% of national sequencing.

In PA, we have JN.1.32 in low but measurable amounts at a little over 3% of random sequencing and these two variants wil have to be watched.

__________
CDC

CDC has stopped requiring reporting COVID hospital admissions, hospital capacity or hospital occupancy data at the beginning of May. 🙄 This plus nowhere near enough testing and sequencing makes this....hard to keep up with the virus.

"Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data to HHS through CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). CDC encourages ongoing, voluntary reporting of hospitalization data. Data voluntarily reported to NHSN after May 1, 2024, will be available starting May 10, 2024, at COVID Data Tracker Hospitalizations."

"The source of hospital information on the COVID Data Tracker home page will change from the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) to COVID-NET. Instead of displaying national counts of new hospital admissions, it will show COVID-19 hospitalization rates per 100,000 people. More information on COVID-Net is available on COVID-NET Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations."

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home 🙄

__________
Other Pathogens

WastewaterSCAN now has SARS2 as LOW! YEAH! :canparrot:

Also FluB and RSV! Woohoo! :canparrot:

Still HIGH though are FluA, Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV), parainfluenza, and gastro bugs Noro and Rotavirus.: https://ibb.co/By0g9Xt

__________
H5N1 follows in second post......

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #HMPV #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l

#H5N1 #CleanFeedNOW

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

I hope your spring is healthy and productive! 💐💐💐

__________
VOCs

Nationally, the most concerning variants are, as I posted last week, the FLiRT variants that have specific mutations enabling fast transfer. JN.1.4 and KP.2 are already almost at 10% of variant share but remember the amount of testing and sequencing right now is dismal and it makes everything harder to evaluate.: https://ibb.co/KDt0Bh4

FLiRT variants are highlighted in pink on my screenshot. Expect these to push further and further near the top in the next few weeks (and the CDC NOWCAST confirms this prediction.)

In PA, we still have a few FLiRTs here and you can already see them starting to move toward the top of the variant chart.: https://ibb.co/kc9CQyZ

In NY/NJ, FLiRTs KP.2, JN.1.4, JN.1.16.1, and JN.1.18 already account for ~20% of random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/TrcS9rW

__________
Wastewater

The GOOD news is COVID is stil fairly low; we've gone below the higher level of two years ago, and are at the lower level of last year at this time!: https://ibb.co/Q83BR3k

We still must watch to see if the FLiRT crew push this metric upwards.

__________
CDC

The new hospital admits map has changed. High increases all through Central PA excepting Centre Co. and also over tehre in Mercer Co. Philly and Pitt looking very good!: https://ibb.co/Xp8tCJV

The Inpatient Beds Map looks pretty good, some increases in McKean, Potter, and Cameron counties and also around Somerset and Cambria Cos.: https://ibb.co/fD7JYTf

ICU beds over all showing stability, with lots of counties in Central PA and the old coal region on the decrease! Some increases from Lycoming over to McKean though.: https://ibb.co/jMTdyCT

__________
NOWCAST

The CDC Nowcast is now including multiple fast-moving FLiRT variants in its tracking: KP.2, KP.1.1, KQ.1, JN.1.18.: https://ibb.co/wBY45FV

According to current estimates, these variants combined account for over a third of illnesses already.

These are moving FAST.

__________
NonSARS2 Pathogens

More good news: according to WastewaterSCAN, there are now lots of pathogens considered LOW nationally!

Just be warned that they are still showing HIGH in the Northeast, like FluB, which is LOW nationally but regionally still HIGH. Hopefully these numbers will lower even more as the Spring enables more outdoor/well ventilated activity.: https://ibb.co/vYGmTd1

__________
H5N1

H5N1 particles have been found in dairy milk, and are assumed to be inactivated due to the pasteurization process.

We MUST demand healthy cows, testing and tracking of sick herds, and transparency from the meat and dairy insustries.

This is not necessarily to keep H5N1 out of dairy products.

The more IMMINENT concern than being found in dairy milk is letting this thing percolate until it gains new mutations, whether to infect swine or enable human-to-human transfer.: https://ibb.co/FVbNnky

Some things you can do that are obviously proactive and not panicking about this:

🔴Demand clean feed for cattle and swine.

🔴Demand transparent testing, tracing of cattle illness.

🔴Demand high levels of sampling and sequencing of sick herds.

🔴AVOID raw dairy products. Seriously, people, DO NOT contribute to this thing by consuming raw dairy products, even if your State allows its sale (and Pennsylvania DOES as far as I know!)

🔴Try ultra-pasteurized milk, it's the most common milk sold in European countries.

Here's a nifty guide that compares pasteurized/ultra-pasteurized/UHT (ultra high temperature) methods of treating dairy products:

https://www.britannica.com/technology/pasteurization

🔴Avoid undercooked or rare meats. Meats must be heated to 162 degrees for at least 15 seconds to destroy pathogens like tuberculosis.

🔴Switch to providers that are not battery farms and practice humane farming. This is NOT just to be kind to animals (although that's a huge bonus), it is PRACTICAL and keeping herds not densely packed will lessen disease transmission. So far, H5N1 has a 50% kill rate even in non-bird species and we MUST keep outbreaks of it controlled.

I hope you have a FANTASTIC, well-ventilated, healthy and fun Spring!! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #HMPV #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l

#H5N1 #CleanFeedNOW

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

It's going to get a bit chilly the next few days , butin spite of that I hope you're haivng a great Spring! 💐💐💐

🔴Reminder: If you've built a Corsi-Rosenthal box, you can get lots of seasonal allergy relief by running it! CR boxes have many, many practical uses besides just controlling air particles that carry pathogens.

There was nothing much new to post on Monday plus I had a bunch of family things to handle (and doing this, admittedly takes time) so I apologize again for not posting. But you know the saying "no news is good news" and that defintiely applies to these updates.

I'm going to try and update the link list ASAP.

I hope you still find all this useful and informative. I hope the medical community finds these accurate and reliable.

__________
VOCs

While we are experiencing a MOST welcome lull in COVID numbers right now, disease modelers are predicting a bump up in numbers at the end of this month.: https://ibb.co/YpnpfMF

This is due to a variant block that have specific mutations. Together they are nicknamed the FLiRT group and are named so because their most important mutations are located at S:F456L and S:R346T within the structure of the pathogen.

🔴Right now FLiRT mutes have an 8% advantage even over JN.1. That's fast.: https://ibb.co/NshJLK6

The most important VOCs out there right now are the variants that have the FLiRT designation, and I've highlighted these mutes on these screenshots in pink.

Remember that there is nowhere near the amount of national testing or sequencing that should be implemented, so it makes trying to predict growth activity more difficult.

Nationally, lots of FLiRT mutations out there. It is unknown whether they are fast enough to cause a wave altogether, but they're fast enough to compete with JN.1 to eventually take over quite a bit of the current leaderboard.: https://ibb.co/S7kCkpH

In PA, we have quite a few FLiRT mutation here but these mutes are in relatively low numbers, so far.: https://ibb.co/bdhJwKv

In NY/NJ, FLiRT mute JN.1.4 already in second place on the leaderboard at over 9% of random sequencing. The other FLiRT variants will undoubtedly catch up.: https://ibb.co/ZBgYP2G

Here you can see FLiRT's innate growth advantage compared to JN variants.: https://ibb.co/3swYQ4r

Here you can see JN.1's innate growth advantage compared to older variants.: https://ibb.co/DfH6j53

__________
Wastewater

Nationally we're still on the bottom of the lull. This might be the lowest point of the whole year as our numbers ongoing could match 2022/2023, where we had quite a bump up in the middle of the summer (because, reminder: COVID doesn't have a "season", it can bump those numbers up anytime it gets lucky with a new mutation!).: https://ibb.co/3mVzfx9

In PA, wastewater still low pretty much everywhere which is great. MontCo SMASHING it, going way below national levels!!: https://ibb.co/TbrQgk7

__________
CDC

The counties showing high increase in hospital admits has shifted around. Now the counties with the highest increases are along the NY border and down in the Southwest corner surrounding Greene Co. Adams and York also showing high end increases. Philly corner showing moderate increases.: https://ibb.co/cQRgbwM

The % inpatient beds map looks very good! stable or decreasing everywhere, except some increases in Columbia Co up going Northeast to Wayne Co.: https://ibb.co/Q8JMZvh

Staffed ICU beds in the vast majority of counties steady or going down...except Columbia, Luzerne and Wyoming in the eastern half of the State and Centre, Clearfield and Jefferson in Central PA.: https://ibb.co/5kXgcYR

__________
Other Pathogens

We're still high in non-SARS2 respiratory pathogens according the WastewaterSCAN. FluA, FluB, and Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) are still HIGH.

Gastro stuff is very high too, Norovirus and Roitavirus.

🔴Keep the air clean, be aware of social contacts and wear a quality respirator in crowds and in places where air filteration is suboptimal. Stay home of you are sick to beat the respiratory stuff.

🔴WASH HANDS with warm water and soap for at least 20 seconds to beat Noro and Rota. Rinse off fruits and veg before you eat them. Be aware of food handling safety in the kitchen. Don't send kids to school with this.

Mostly because...Noro and Rota are not only extremely contagious, they're also just...gross. 🤢

I hope you have a GREAT and safe Spring!! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Rotavirus #HMPV #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

I hope you had a clear and safe view of the eclipse on Tuesday!!! 🌗🌘🌑

I hope you also have a great and safe Spring now that warmer weather is finally here! 💐💐💐
__________
VOCs

Nothing much new to report on new variants (which is why I didn't post on Monday...absolutely nothing was updated at all...wastewater, CDC, variants, etc.).

JN.1 and JN.1.4 still at the top of the leaderboard.

The fastest two variants now in the US are JN.1.18 and KP.2 (which is a descendant of JN.1.11.1) and though the two are making gains every update, they don't seem to be near as fast as JN.1 was.: https://ibb.co/zFNhBF7

There are no new imminently concerning variants on the horizon right now.

__________
Wastewater

National level is still MEDIUM on WastewaterSCAN but we're now approaching where we were at this time last year. Still a ways to go to get to LOW levels but at least it isn't going up for now.: https://ibb.co/yR8ttZ1

Wastewater is showing SARS2 actually increasing in the UPark area.:https://ibb.co/K2MWY4G

PLEASE use quality respirators, be aware of social contacts, and KEEP THE AIR CLEAN!

__________
Other Pathogens

WastewaterSCAN has us at MEDIUM for SARS2 but there's still a LOOOOOT out there that is HIGH.: https://ibb.co/R6R5jDM

FluA, FluB, Human Metapneumovirus(HMPV) and gastro pathogens Norovirus and Rotavirus are still HIGH nationally.

In PA, the highest by far is Noro, but also FluA and FluB is very high.

Wear respirators to control SARS2 and WASH THOSE HANDSIES to control the gastro stuff! 👐

UPark has got some work to do with pathogen control. Levels are going up/lagging behind on handling SARS2, FluA, FluB, HMPV, Noro.: https://ibb.co/YcvPpJg

Please get a handle of this stuff, UPark.

__________
H5N1

A condensed version of the current state of H5N1:

H5N1 IS NOT NEW.

So far, the only human cases of contracting H5N1 are through direct contact with infected animals.

So far, scientists are still unsure of how H5N1 affects cattle. THIS IS in fact, NEW.

🔴Cattle cases have been found in 8 states.: https://ibb.co/YcvPpJg

The vast majority are in Texas. 40% of Panhandle cattle have been infected, and that area produces 82% of Texas' milk. This is LOTS of room for new mutations to develop.: https://ibb.co/yFr2Rm1

New Mexico
Idaho
North Carolina
Ohio
Michigan
Kansas
South Dakota.

These states are not in the paths of migratory birds so contaminated FEED is suspected. The feed is contaminated by practices that are LEGAL in the US but BANNED in Canada and Europe....mainly, feeding bird waste to cattle.

🔴 Feed for swine was DEREGULATED in 2018 and MUST be re-regulated to protect swine from H5N1. They are genetically similar to humans and can easily percolate a mutation that spreads to humans.: https://ibb.co/NxdSJm7

🔴 Feed for all farm animals must be regulated and animal waste must be kept out of farm animal food.

__________
Like COVID, H5N1 has the ability to gain new mutations from new hosts. THIS IS NOT A NEW CONCEPT.

Some things to watch for that are NOT CURRENT but are progressively bad:

--Cattle-to-cattle transmission proven.

--Contaminant-to-swine (pigs) develop.

--Swine-to-Human acquired.

--Human-to-human transmisison proven.

The first three have to somehow happen before the fourth happens. None of these things seem to be imminent but that progression will mirror pathogens like Spanish Flu.

I keep spending a lot of time on this because I cannot stress enough that H5N1 in humans has a 50% kill (case fatality) rate so far. A vaccine does exist for H5N1 for both humans and birds, but the human version is not stored in mass quantities for now.

Some things we can do together to lessen the chances of allowing H5N1 to mutate:

🔴 Lobby for CLEAN animal feed for swine, cattle, and fowl.

🔴 Buy dairy products from smaller, more humane farms. Grass-fed cattle and free-range chicken eggs are more expensive, but better than battery farming products where thousands of animals are squeezed together.

🔴 Buy ultra-pasteurized dairy products (most of our cream is ultra pasteurized anyway).

🔴 Insist that farm birds are vaccinated against H5N1.

🔴 I can't stress enough that farm feed must be HUMANE and REGULATED. This is not political, this is literally to stop a highly pathogenic disease from becoming capable of infecting humans.

Contaminated cattle feed is exactly how the prion infection called Mad Cow Disease begun.

Clean feed and happy farm animals make better, cleaner, and healthier products!

__________

There are always simple things we can all do to prevent the possibility of dangerous pathogen mutations!

Source control is the most important part to keeping life, learning, and financial loss to a minimum.

I hope you all continue to have a great Spring! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #KP2 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Rotavirus #H5N1 #HMPV

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 4/1/2024!

Good April Morning SARS2PAians!

I hope your spring is healthy. 💐💐💐

__________
VOCs

JN.1 and JN.1.4 stil dominate the leaderboard, but scientists are especially watching a groiup of new mutations including JN.1.18, JN.1.13, KP.2, JN.1.16, and KQ.1.: https://ibb.co/6RvHcZR

Some of these are moving FAST despite the already-very-fast mutations on the landscape.

__________
Wastewater

We've reached a level of SARS2 material in wastewater low enough to match previous years (2020, 2021.): https://ibb.co/DMyG0k4

__________
CDC

Quite a lot of counties with new hospital admits, especially the Western half of the State. The Southwest corner by Greene Co and from Centre on over to Erie Co and Jefferson are HIGH on the newest chart.: https://ibb.co/m6KYR0Z

The Inpatient Beds chart looks good except for some increases in Lawrence and around Cameron Cos.: https://ibb.co/SPm1wJt

The ICU bed chart looks very good! Most counties are having decreases! However some increases up by Pike Co and significant increases in Franklin and Fulton Cos.:https://ibb.co/sKdK54P

__________
Research

Tuberculosis after recovering from COVID-19 is becoming more common.: https://ibb.co/ZxZ7kHY

Reactivation of underlying pathogens is NOT NEW. We know this factually from the chicken pox/shingles pathogen.

Also, measles is known to reset the ENTIRE immune system and bring protection from everything down to zero, potentially leaving reactivation of underlying pathogens, which is by levels of magnitude more complex than the physical disability it can cause and makes it imperative that you **VACCINATE YOUR KIDS**.: https://ibb.co/cbFXrRw

Again: NONE of this is brand new, and COVID19 along with other known pathogens, seems to potentially weaken the immune system enough to reactivate underlying pathogens.

__________
Non-SARS2 Pathogens

COVID and RSV thankfully have been downgraded on WastewaterSCAN to "Medium" and "low" respectively.: https://ibb.co/k2SpgLR

However, quite a number of pathogens are still ranking in the HIGH level: FluA, FluB, Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) and the gastro pathogens Norovirus and Rotavirus are still out there.

HMPV often presents with a rash and is related to RSV:

https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/human-metapneumovirus.html
https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/22443-human-metapneumovirus-hmpv

The prevention for all these respiratory diseses is the same!

Be conscious of crowds.

Wear a mask in places with low air filtration.

Keep the air clean!

Stay home if you are sick!

For norovirus and rotavirus, it's important to wash hands with soap and warm water for 20sec.

:ms_arrow_right: DO NOT depend on gloves and hand sanitizer to control Norovirus, the particles are very resistant to alcohol.

__________
H5N1

Nothing above here has scientists sitting up at attention right now except one thing: H5N1 bird flu.

H5N1 has jumped to dairy cattle (after infecting numerous other species such as seals, fox, deer, etc.), has been found in cattle in TX, KS, MI, NM, and now Idaho.: https://ibb.co/1JgGY2v

Before now, almost all transmission was bird-to-other-species. "Cow-to-cow transmission cannot be ruled out" and will be a disaster for the food supply if not controlled.: https://ibb.co/mDKVZ7R

There is resistance amongst dairy farmers in the US and in Europe to get their cattle tested.

The absolute worst case scenario is if it "makes the leap" to pigs. That means, if genetically it mutates (like COVID-19 is doing) to be able to:

---Infect pigs.

---Gain capability of pig-to-pig transmission.

The genetic "leap" from bird to mammals was very large, and will also be the "leap" from cattle to pig.....but the "leap" from pigs and ferrets to humans after that will be really, really small.

This would be the same route the Spanish Flu took 106 years ago: Birds -> pigs -> humans.

It is...really not a good time to consume unpasteurized, raw dairy products.

:ms_arrow_right: I'm spending a lot of words on this because so far, this thing has a ****50% kill rate******. That is, 1 out of every 2 people who contract H5N1 will die.

I don't know what else to say. We MUST push for thorough farm testing, biosecurity, and intense transmission research.

Stay safe, I hope you had a GREAT holiday, and don't forget to use some form of source control in your daily adventures! 💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #JN1_4 #KP2 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Noro #Rotavirus #H5N1 #HMPV

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #StayHomeIfSick !!!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!!

I apologize for not typing up a thing for you all on Friday, I got caught up in family stuff. I hope you had a GREAT and SAFE weekend!!
:canparrot:

__________
VOCs

Nationally, JN.1 still at a solid >40% of randomly sequenced samples.: https://ibb.co/s9rZzPq

KP.2 is the next variant to watch and has already had some FAST gains in the past few days.

in PA, both JN.1.16 and KP.2 have already been sequenced here. Control the spread of these potentiall troublesome two mutations by employing SOME form of source control!: https://ibb.co/rtKWn48

in NY/NJ, JN.1 and JN.1.4 at the top as usual but KP.2 already at 1.31% of random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/XDTdCJ8

__________
Lineage News

While other lineages with lab-estimated growth did not seem to contribute to the leaderboard as much as JN.1 continues to do that, its descendant KP.2 is showing extremely fast growth both in lab estimates (with a high confidence level, so this lab data will probably translate more readily into real-world trouble) AND in actual numbers of sequences found.: https://ibb.co/3kyD7Bc

It still has a bonkers high growth advantage rate considering genetics alone and has moved quickly up a couple ranks in actual practice, on the sequencing leaderboard already.

It'll definitely be one to watch.

__________
Wastewater

Nationally, COVID levels continue to decline in wastewater. This will only get better once these cold snaps are done! We're still at a point where we're very high compared to previous years, though.: https://ibb.co/DY8LNMB

Previous years comparison: https://ibb.co/pw8WLjH

Regionally, all regions are declining in found SARS2 material in wastewater. We are still at the highest concentration in the Northeast compared to everyone else, though.: https://ibb.co/8sj4BpS

In PA, Chester Co. is SMASHING IT and levels are absolutely tanking for now! But Bucks, Luzerne, and Lackawanna's levels are still a bit above naitonal averages. Use source control to improve this data point!: https://ibb.co/s65h3yG

__________
CDC

The New Hospital Admits map is showing significant increases in Juniata Co. curving down to Somerset Co and Bedford Co., and also over in Lawrence Co. The rest of the map is pretty good, with overwhelmingly reductions in hospital admits in most counties!: https://ibb.co/sKnLV5X

Staffed Inpatient Beds are showing significant increases in Juniata, Mifflin, Huntingdon and Elk Cos with the rest of our counties stable or slightly decreasing.: https://ibb.co/Yyj4MRr

Quite a lot of ICU bed use increases. From Greene at the southweasternmost corner, all the way diagonally up to Bradford and Susquehanna Cos, increasing levels all the way. Don't be this statistic, folks. Get those XBB/flu/etc. shots.: https://ibb.co/LYkXcKJ

Sadly there have been 1,064 COVID deaths in PA in the last three months and while this number has gone down a bit since last time I posted this, our state remains in the highest category of the 3 month data cycle.: https://ibb.co/8m5SDBY

__________
Non-SARS2 Pathogens

Well, if you want to stick around to read this, I'll post this part up last.

While SARS2/COVID continues to steadily decline, the one pathogen that's still at quite a staggeringly high rate is Norovirus, the "24-hour stomach bug".

Levels of this are still EXTREMELY high, and are slow to start going down, as they had around this time last year.: https://ibb.co/Kqny3QJ

PLEASE WASH HANDS with soap and water. Hand sanitizer is not enough. Norovirus is extremely resistant to alcohol and heat sterilization due to a tough "shell" surrounding the virions.

You MUST wah hands with warm water and soap for 20 seconds to actively contribute to controlling Norovirus.

Wash fruits and veg before you eat them, even if you don't eat the peel (example: clementines, oranges, and grapefruit.)

Don't serve or prepare food if you are sick!

This thing is just gross. 🤢 Make sure everything's clean before you sit down to eat!

Using source control will make numbers for ALL pathogens go downward so we have a healthy (and not gross) Spring! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #Influenza #Norovirus #Noro

#KP2

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #VaccinesSaveLives #WashHands #Wastewater #StayHomeIfSick #SourceControl #USESourceControl #COVIDSourceControl

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!!

I hope your stuff stayed in place with all that wind out there!

There's no new wastewater data today.

Lineage News

JN.1.x.y continues to dominate the national leaderboard.

There are a few variants to watch for future activity, including KQ.1, KP.2, KP.1.1 and KR.1, all grandchildren of JN.1.: https://ibb.co/j800SF3

JN.1.16 is also proving pretty darn fast. Pennsylvania already has had samples of JN.1.16 submitted.: https://ibb.co/qdDB3qF

Some of them have already gotten "above the fold" nationally. KP.2 and KP.1.1 are already in the top half of variants. JN.1.11.1 is still around at sizeable levels.: https://ibb.co/zSnSp9N

XDP is a recombination of JN.1.4 and FL.15 (descendant of XBB.1.9.1).

__________
CDC

In spite of lower infection numbers, there seems to have been a lot of emergency cases filtering through the medical system since last update.

New Hospital Admits substantially increased in Central PA from Lycoming Co. aaaaall the way over to Venango Co., and also from York on the southern border to Fulton Co.: https://ibb.co/FqJQtfS

Staffed inpatient beds steady through the State except for Lawrence and around McKean Cos.: https://ibb.co/ZGzv578

ICU bed use increased significantly in Lawrence, in Vanango aaaaaalll on up to the northern border and over to Tioga, and around Luzerne Co.: https://ibb.co/7N3Tzq5

CDC At-a-Glance has test positivity, hospital admits, ED visits and deaths trending stradily downward so far though.: https://ibb.co/x3MtrNP

__________
Non-SARS2 stuff

SARS2 has actually been downgraded on WastewaterSCAN to "medium" spread!: https://ibb.co/Cz4PQmk

NonSARS2 pathogens are still just demolishing us.

Most respiratory stuff is still high except COVID/SARS2. RSV, FluA, FluB, are all HIGH still. Parainfluenza is now HIGH.

The gastro stuff, Norovirus and Rotavirus, is still crazy HIGH. Noro is still rising in Chester Co.

:ms_arrow_right: Noro is very resistant to heat and hand sanitizer! You MUST wash hands with warm water and soap for 20 seconds to reduce your chances of spreading noro! :catjam:

That's all I have for this week, PA. Keep close watch of that air quality and wash hands so we can have an AWESOME and healthy Spring! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Noro #Rotavirus

#JN1Sixteen #JN116
#KP1One #KP11
#KP2
#KP2One #KP21

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #VaccinesSaveLives #WashHands #Wastewater #StayHomeIfSick #SourceControl #USESourceControl #COVIDSourceControl

Update for 3/8/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAiains!!

I hope you're ready for that time change on Sunday! 🕐🕐🕐

This is a wonderfully short update. I mean, it doesn't look short, but it kinda is. 🤪

There's no new CDC stuff.

There are no new wastewater updates and we are continuing to approach lower levels of previous years as spring gets closer.: https://ibb.co/QfPr8NJ

__________
Lineage News

There's no new immediate variant news as JN.1 is still the only thing all over the place so far.

There are some new varaints being watched as JN.1 (and specifically JN.1.11) seems really capable of producing descendants that worry virologists:

❗️JN.1.16: Concerningly infectious even over very wide areas in China; Lots of this currently being uploaded from what I gather in USA too, already in 9 states.

❗KP.1.1 (which is JN.1.11.1.1.1): this has a potential nuts-level of growth rate going by genetics alone.

❗KP.2 (which is JN.1.11.1.2): seems closely related to JN.1.16 that I was, in my very very unprofessional opinion, concerned about last update.

❗KP.2.1: widespread already in East Asia.

KP.x.y has an extraordinary growth rate only considering mutations but we'll see how any of this checks out in actual biological results.

__________
NON SARS PATHOGENS

There is still a very high amount of total pathogens all around.: https://ibb.co/3sxWQ3C

Respiratory pathogens are still high according to WastewaterSCAN:

❗SARS2

❗RSV

❗Flu A

❗Flu B

❗Parainfluenza, which has been upgraded to HIGH since last update.

Gastro stuff is still very high too!:

❗Norovirus

❗Rotavirus

Noro is thankfully declining at UPark but still in the very high range.: https://ibb.co/CMSGsjg

If we keep using common sense ways to control it, it prevents DAYS of learning/financial loss and potential hospital visits for dehydration. And...it's just gross to deal with. 🤢

Fpr respiratory illnesses, wear a quality respirator, be aware of social contacts, mask/respirator up in crowds and in low ventilation areas (low ceilings, restrooms, elevators, etc.), keep the air clean, get those COVID and flu shots, and STAY HOME if you are sick!

For the gastro stuff, don't prepare food when sick. Don't depend on gloves for sanitizing either! Wash fruits and veg before you eat them.

Wash hands with soap and water for 20 seconds.

❗Hand sanitizer and heat does not work well against Norovirus because the individual virions are very very tough to kill. You MUST wash hands with soap and water.

For all pathogens, cover coughs and sneezes in the elbow crease and not your hands.

We're almost there! :canparrot:

It's Goose flyover season! :cangoose:

We're gonna have a great Spring, and simple, common sense consideration and source control is how we get there! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Noro #Rotavirus

#JN1Sixteen #JN116
#KP1One #KP11
#KP2
#KP2One #KP21

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #VaccinesSaveLives #WashHands #Wastewater #StayHomeIfSick #SourceControl #USESourceControl #COVIDSourceControl

U[pdate for 2/23/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians! ❄️❄️❄️

There's no new CDC stuff for today.

VOCs

JN.1 and its cousins/offspring continues to smash the leaderboard globally and in the US: https://ibb.co/xSW90JK

And here in PA: https://ibb.co/FX4VJgb

Lineage News

JN.1.11 has totally fizzled out (that's the difference between how it looks in a lab compared to actual infectivity) but there is a new variant that is being VERY closely scoured for by geneticists: JN.1.23 (that's JN One Dot Twenty-Three.)

This variant has an absolutely astounding ACE2Binding ability (which means it's easier to "stick" to lungs) + very good escape rate (which means it looks different than anything else before it and the body isn't sure how to react to it).: https://ibb.co/B45zX5B

It is definitely way beyond "uh-oh" at this point.: https://ibb.co/9T5pv5z

It has already been found on 3 continents (South America/Brazil, North America/California, and Asia/India) and also in Canada/Alberta. it's now being tracked on Rajnarayanan's Tableau chart for the US.: https://ibb.co/xMwRyyC

This also has so much binding ability, it has the most potential to even "spend" some of its infectivity on other mutations that will benefit its children, sacrificing it for more severity or more innate infectivity....which would be very bad.

The good news is that this variant has only 2 differences between it and what we're already dealing with. Despite the very good ACE2 binding, XBB.1.5 vaccines and prior infections with JN.1 should hold against it at least a little while.: https://ibb.co/42D30fZ

(Note: don't get infected to prevent infection. That's silly. There's NO sure way to know if you were infected with JN.1 unless you get your case sequenced. Get vaccinated and use source control. That's smart and NOT silly.)

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Wastewater

Wastewater SARS2 material is rising in the US again. Not a good sign.: https://ibb.co/DGx889k

Regionally, all regions except the West are starting to tick upwards again.: https://ibb.co/dtKpRsK

In PA, the 5 stations that report to Biobot are showing very volatile elves, but Chester, Lackawanna, Luzerne, and MontCo are handling it. :canparrot: GOOD GOING. Source control keeps those numbers down!!!: https://ibb.co/JxZX7YC

BucksCo is on an uptick, now above national averages. Please be cautious and keep working at it for Spring!!! 💐

The PA DoH Wastewater dashboard reflects these rising levels, with levels especially rising in Monroe County. PLEASE USE SOURCE CONTROL. Wear a quality respirator, clean the air with MERV-13 or HEPA filters, and STAY HOME if you are sick!: https://ibb.co/DwtcNgd

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Year-Over-Year

Want to remind everyone that this year has the highest national wastewater numbers of all COVID years at this time.: https://ibb.co/WP98zxT

(I changed the color of the 2024 year because the original color used to represent it was...pretty unseeable.)

MORE people are getting infected/reinfected more quickly, and you can see the general trend is for the absolute baseline rising throughout the year.

This is in addition to, on WastewaterSCAN, high levels of other respiratory pathogens like RSV, FluA and FluB and the gastro-disturbing (and just gross) Norovirus.: https://ibb.co/ggyxfBt

Wash hands to prevent especially non SARS pathogens.
🌊👍🌊

Wash fruits and veg too before you eat them!
🌊🍎🥒🌊

Guys, this is us on our way to a high tide that will never drop IF we don't use source control.

But if we do, we can prevent life, learning, and financial loss going into spring and have a LOVELY and healthy new season soon! 💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #JN1TwentyThree #JN123 #Norovirus #Influenza #InfluenzaB #Flu #FluB #WearAMask #CleanTheAir #VaccinesSaveLives #Wastewater #StayHomeIfSick #SourceControl #USESourceControl #COVIDSourceControl

Good Morning SARS2PAians!!

Thankfully, there is not a whole lot new going on with COVID. There are still no upcoming variants that will overtake JN.1.x.y yet.

No new CDC maps.

The most important thing is some non-SARS2 wastewater stuff.

For SARS2/COVID, national wastewater is starting to level out after a (worrying for me) uptick at the beginning of the month.: https://ibb.co/8dt7jGg

Regionally, the Northeast still has by far the highest concentration but is clearly levelling off from a small uptick. Other regions are ever so slightly rising but are mostly steady.: https://ibb.co/DKqYBzm

In PA, some increases in Bucks which is making the levels go above national average. PLEASE use source control to keep this from getting worse.: https://ibb.co/M7mnNJ5

Also in ChesterCo, all systems I'm watching clearly shows a strong increase there. PLEASE practice SOURCE CONTROL.

You can see on the most recent PA Wastewater Dashboard that levels are increasing in major areas in PA (Pittsburgh, Chester, Monroe Cos.).: https://ibb.co/9tkbxnJ

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Non-COVID Pathogens

WastewaterSCAN currently shows the levels for ALL respiratory pathogens (SARS2, RSV, FluA, FluB) as HIGH in our region and also for Norovorus (the "24-hour stomach bug") as HIGH.: https://ibb.co/1nPBsBp

Looks like University Park's levels of RSV are almost going vertical.: https://ibb.co/jZCxwvR

ChesterCo is having strong increases of Influenza B.: https://ibb.co/TBMVhMD

Norovirus in ChesterCo is already crazy high AND on a VERY strong increase. (What's going on over there and in UPark?? College kiddos? Please tell your college kiddos to practice source control!): https://ibb.co/fFkbFMS

You can see there that the left vertical axis the numbers for Noro are bonkers (RSV range is from 0 to 280, Noro goes from 10,000 to 110,000 😳)

Read about Norovirus from the Cleveland Clinic: https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/17703-norovirus

Norovirus is primarily a SANITARY but also CLOSE CONTACT issue.

WASH YOUR HANDS.

Do not eat off unclean dinnerware. Avoid oysters and other seafood during high outbreaks.

Wash off fruits and veggies before you eat them.

Do NOT prepare food if you are sick.

STAY HOME. The CDC is wrong.: https://mstdn.social/@erictopol/111924800740495932

STAY HOME.

Wear a quality respirator in large crowds!

If we can keep this stuff under control through the rest of the winter, first of all it will be a MUCH more pleasant Spring. Secondly, if a new COVID variant appears and is fast enough to go worldwide, we won't be worrying about five other pathogens.

I hope we can work together to make a FANTASTIC and healthy Spring!! 💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #Norovirus #Influenza #InfluenzaB #Flu #FluB #WearAMask #CleanTheAir #VaccinesSaveLives #Wastewater #StayHomeIfSick

Heading into work, wish me luck as we don't have any sales today.

#blackfriday #stayhomeifsick #nosale