#redmirage — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #redmirage, aggregated by home.social.
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While watching the silly "projections" of the #PresidentialElection2024 voting returns, I keep thinking of the mantra I learned from @rbreich: #RedMirage; #BlueShift.
I'm hoping for a #HarrisWalz win!
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[Video] #Wisconsin #DemocraticParty #Chair predicts a #redmirage before a #bluewave in the #state.
Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair #BenWikler discusses #FormerPresident #BarackObama making a final #pitch to #voters in #Milwaukee on Sunday, and he discusses #earlyvoting in the state.
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CW: uspol, oh god mustn't let anyone read anything hopeful I guess without warnings
https://youtu.be/5XEQ_7zZ-bw ← It's important not to get discouraged by the #RedMirage: early reporting comes from sparsely-populated precincts which lean right-wing. The densely-populated areas that vote Dem always have a #BlueShift late in the cycle. It's important everyone knows this is normal and expected.
But you know, heaven forfend anyone post this without blurring it behind a content warning.
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CW: USpol; Trump will declare victory early; don't be fooled by the "red mirage"
There are solid reasons why the early returns will trend Republican, and then as the counting progresses more and more Democratic votes will show up. This is also known as the "blue shift".
Trump *will* declare victory as soon as he thinks he can get away with it. (He's *already* claiming election fraud!) Don't buy it.
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Dear all, I think you all know there's an #election in the #USA coming up on Tuesday. If you haven't already voted, if you are eligible, please please #Vote
The thing that I want to talk about, though, is the #RedMirage phenomenon, which is what happens when the more rural republican regions turn in their results first, because they have largely voted in person, and there are fewer voters in those rural regions.
So results start out red when the first counties report.
Then, the more-urban areas, which tend to vote democratic, start reporting the counts of the vote-by-mail ballots, which happens more slowly because of the volume of ballots and voters. This second wave of vote reporting is called the #BlueShift and it was used in 2020 to call the election results into doubt.
https://www.npr.org/2024/10/06/nx-s1-5141959/electoral-college-map-what-is-blue-shift-red-mirage
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CW: Instagram Reel
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBtezoGuOuM/
#RedMirage #BlueShift #RobertReich #Politics #Election #USA #America #Vote #tRump #KamalaHarris #Harris #HarrisWalz #VoteBlue #Victory #Strategy #January6 #DirtyTrick #Premature #VoteByMail #Urban #Rural #Democrats #Republicans #Democracy #Exploit #FalseClaim
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大选夜越来越近，预防输不起的老男人发瘟的预防针：
选举日伴随开票进度会出现两个现象，#红蜃（#RedMirage）和 #蓝移（#BlueShift）
红蜃是指在 #选举日 开票初期，共和党得票率会有明显的领先；蓝移是指随着开票率提升，民主党得票率会逐渐赶上（以及超过）。
这两种现象背后是同一成因，即两党选民群体的人口分布差异。在地广人稀的农村/郊区，共和党选民比例更高，而得益于人口基数小，这些地区的投票和计票都较为迅速，因此会很早就体现在得票率统计中；而民主党选民则一般集中在人口密度较高、投票队伍较长的城区，加上劳工阶层选民往往只能下班后前往投票站，这部分选票结果会在更晚时间呈现；除此之外，邮寄投票的分批次到达导致部分选票在大选夜后半夜才能进入清点流程，而选择邮寄投票的选民有更高比例的民主党选民，共和党选民更倾向于现场投票。红蜃蓝移现象在每届大选都会出现；需要专门提起是因为2020年大选时唐纳德以此为借口，将伴随红蜃蓝移出现的民主党得票率后来居上污蔑成舞弊和做票；在他心中，唯一公正的结果只有遂他心意的那一种。
GO VOTE！
#mastodon4Harris #默嘟象挺贺锦丽 -
#ElectionDay phenomena…
#RedMirage: Rural areas with low number of voters, often for #Republicans, are counted fast; seems to be early lead.
#BlueShift: Urban areas, often for #Democrats, are counted slow. Most mail-in votes are for Dems, too.
#Trump will use RedMirage & later BlueShift to claim his votes were stolen.
Explained by Robert Reich on #YouTube vid, "Beware Trump’s Election Night Trick": https://youtu.be/5XEQ_7zZ-bw
From @rbreich's post: https://masto.ai/@rbreich/113386008469424083
#USPolitics @uspolitics -
These Republican idiots are setting themselves up for another "#redMirage" that they'll promptly blame of #electionFraud. What happens is that same-day #votes are counted first. So, they'll get excited when they hear the early results, thinking they're on track for a blow-out. But then the #mailBallots are tallied, which tend to be predominantly #Democratic. The earlier red lead will vanish, #Harris will win, and #Republicans will get out their #TikiTorches.
