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#predictionmarket — Public Fediverse posts

Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #predictionmarket, aggregated by home.social.

  1. U.S. soldier charged with using classified intel to win $400K Polymarket bet on capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

    @AssociatedPress reports: flip.it/09BG4J

    #PolyMarket #Maduro #Betting #PredictionMarket #News #Tech

  2. #Kalshi suspends, fines 3 candidates for #Congress in ‘#insidertrading’ enforcement
    #PredictionMarket said three “were flagged because of our newly released safeguards to block political candidates from trading on their own elections.”
    The candidates are #MarkMoran,Virginia candidate for #Senate running as independent; Minnesota Democrat #MattKlein, in primary for 2nd Congressional District; and #EzekielEnriquez of Texas, running in Republican primary for 21st District.
    cnbc.com/2026/04/22/kalshi-ins

  3. #Kalshi suspends, fines 3 candidates for #Congress in ‘#insidertrading’ enforcement
    #PredictionMarket said three “were flagged because of our newly released safeguards to block political candidates from trading on their own elections.”
    The candidates are #MarkMoran,Virginia candidate for #Senate running as independent; Minnesota Democrat #MattKlein, in primary for 2nd Congressional District; and #EzekielEnriquez of Texas, running in Republican primary for 21st District.
    cnbc.com/2026/04/22/kalshi-ins

  4. #Kalshi suspends, fines 3 candidates for #Congress in ‘#insidertrading’ enforcement
    #PredictionMarket said three “were flagged because of our newly released safeguards to block political candidates from trading on their own elections.”
    The candidates are #MarkMoran,Virginia candidate for #Senate running as independent; Minnesota Democrat #MattKlein, in primary for 2nd Congressional District; and #EzekielEnriquez of Texas, running in Republican primary for 21st District.
    cnbc.com/2026/04/22/kalshi-ins

  5. #Trump family crypto firm sued over alleged 'extortion' - Grifters gonna grift, as the most corrupt president in US history continually proves. Now, let’s talk about all those #PredictionMarket plays. Between Trump’s crypto scams, his many lawsuits, and his extortion of $$ from supposed friends and allies, the man and his family have reaped billions since his return to the presidency. He’s fleecing everyone and everything while the rest of us suffer from the #affordability crisis. Gas prices up, groceries cost a fortune, rents are rising and no one can afford to buy a home. #Republicans have destroyed the American dream. #Corruption #Grift #Crypto bbc.com/news/articles/c8x7kxjg

  6. #Paradigm, a major investor in #Kalshi, is developing a #predictionmarket|s trading terminal for professional traders and market makers. The firm is also exploring the creation of prediction market indexes and has begun collecting prediction market data. This move comes as mainstream financial institutions are increasingly interested in prediction markets. fortune.com/2026/04/01/paradig #tech #media #news

  7. #Paradigm, a major investor in #Kalshi, is developing a #predictionmarket|s trading terminal for professional traders and market makers. The firm is also exploring the creation of prediction market indexes and has begun collecting prediction market data. This move comes as mainstream financial institutions are increasingly interested in prediction markets. fortune.com/2026/04/01/paradig #tech #media #news

  8. #Paradigm, a major investor in #Kalshi, is developing a #predictionmarket|s trading terminal for professional traders and market makers. The firm is also exploring the creation of prediction market indexes and has begun collecting prediction market data. This move comes as mainstream financial institutions are increasingly interested in prediction markets. fortune.com/2026/04/01/paradig #tech #media #news

  9. #Paradigm, a major investor in #Kalshi, is developing a #predictionmarket|s trading terminal for professional traders and market makers. The firm is also exploring the creation of prediction market indexes and has begun collecting prediction market data. This move comes as mainstream financial institutions are increasingly interested in prediction markets. fortune.com/2026/04/01/paradig #tech #media #news

  10. #Paradigm, a major investor in #Kalshi, is developing a #predictionmarket|s trading terminal for professional traders and market makers. The firm is also exploring the creation of prediction market indexes and has begun collecting prediction market data. This move comes as mainstream financial institutions are increasingly interested in prediction markets. fortune.com/2026/04/01/paradig #tech #media #news

  11. Placing bets on war, suffering and environmental destruction
    Speculating on online prediction markets is rapidly becoming a feature of modern warfare.

    Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts "New online accounts on Polymarket platform betting a total of $70,000 suggest ‘some degree of inside info." >>
    theguardian.com/us-news/2026/m

    Anonymous gamblers have made millions betting on the events of the Middle East war, prompting US politicians to call for a ban on such speculation. >>
    abc.net.au/news/2026-03-11/ira

    #war #speculation #MilitaryConflicts #ConfidentialInformation #InsiderInformation #InsiderKnowledge #gambling #warfare #GamblingService #PredictionMarket #InsiderTrading #crime #regulation #necropolitics #Deathworlds

  12. Placing bets on war, suffering and environmental destruction
    Speculating on online prediction markets is rapidly becoming a feature of modern warfare.

    Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts "New online accounts on Polymarket platform betting a total of $70,000 suggest ‘some degree of inside info." >>
    theguardian.com/us-news/2026/m

    Anonymous gamblers have made millions betting on the events of the Middle East war, prompting US politicians to call for a ban on such speculation. >>
    abc.net.au/news/2026-03-11/ira

    #war #speculation #MilitaryConflicts #ConfidentialInformation #InsiderInformation #InsiderKnowledge #gambling #warfare #GamblingService #PredictionMarket #InsiderTrading #crime #regulation #necropolitics #Deathworlds

  13. Placing bets on war, suffering and environmental destruction
    Speculating on online prediction markets is rapidly becoming a feature of modern warfare.

    Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts "New online accounts on Polymarket platform betting a total of $70,000 suggest ‘some degree of inside info." >>
    theguardian.com/us-news/2026/m

    Anonymous gamblers have made millions betting on the events of the Middle East war, prompting US politicians to call for a ban on such speculation. >>
    abc.net.au/news/2026-03-11/ira

    #war #speculation #MilitaryConflicts #ConfidentialInformation #InsiderInformation #InsiderKnowledge #gambling #warfare #GamblingService #PredictionMarket #InsiderTrading #crime #regulation #necropolitics #Deathworlds

  14. Placing bets on war, suffering and environmental destruction
    Speculating on online prediction markets is rapidly becoming a feature of modern warfare.

    Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts "New online accounts on Polymarket platform betting a total of $70,000 suggest ‘some degree of inside info." >>
    theguardian.com/us-news/2026/m

    Anonymous gamblers have made millions betting on the events of the Middle East war, prompting US politicians to call for a ban on such speculation. >>
    abc.net.au/news/2026-03-11/ira

    #war #speculation #MilitaryConflicts #ConfidentialInformation #InsiderInformation #InsiderKnowledge #gambling #warfare #GamblingService #PredictionMarket #InsiderTrading #crime #regulation #necropolitics #Deathworlds

  15. Placing bets on war, suffering and environmental destruction
    Speculating on online prediction markets is rapidly becoming a feature of modern warfare.

    Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts "New online accounts on Polymarket platform betting a total of $70,000 suggest ‘some degree of inside info." >>
    theguardian.com/us-news/2026/m

    Anonymous gamblers have made millions betting on the events of the Middle East war, prompting US politicians to call for a ban on such speculation. >>
    abc.net.au/news/2026-03-11/ira

    #war #speculation #MilitaryConflicts #ConfidentialInformation #InsiderInformation #InsiderKnowledge #gambling #warfare #GamblingService #PredictionMarket #InsiderTrading #crime #regulation #necropolitics #Deathworlds

  16. TechGrumps 3.38 – The Bettification of everything

    I bet you don’t know what we are complaining about. I bet you $20

    Listen to your host Ryan Alexander with Ian ForresterDavid Eastman, and Wendy Grossman.

    Techgrumps 3.38

    AI Roundup

    1. https://simonwillison.net/2026/Feb/13/openai-mission-statement/ Comparing and showing diffs of the openai mission statement over time, you can watch the compromising happen!
    2. The new web is markdown, because the agents don’t want ads https://blog.cloudflare.com/markdown-for-agents/ 
    3. RA: https://tomloosemorework.wordpress.com/2026/02/19/ai-and-the-end-of-friction-as-a-policy-lever/ very interesting point about agentic AI taking on the engineered process friction put into the processes of accessing many public services.
    4. App detects if Smart glasses are near by https://www.404media.co/this-app-warns-you-if-someone-is-wearing-smart-glasses-nearby/?ref=daily-stories-newsletter
    5. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.16800 LLMs can de-anonymize pseudonymous online accounts. Similar to Discord offering to judge age “stochastically”
    6. Paper showing that LLMs can link profiles and postings at speed and at scale, pretty much killing online anonymity: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.16800

    Main attractions

    AOB’s

     https://protocolsforpublishers.com/event-recap-london-2026/?ref=protocols-for-publishers-newsletter#stakeholder-forum

    Fediverse share this link: https://connectedplaces.online/reports/fr156-share-where/

    #AI #davideastman #ianforrester #PredictionMarket #ryanalexander #web #wendygrossman
  17. Aus dem Newsletter von #D64: Auf bahn.bet/ gibt es jetzt einen Prediction Market für Bahnverspätungen.

    #bahn #predictionmarket

  18. Aus dem Newsletter von #D64: Auf bahn.bet/ gibt es jetzt einen Prediction Market für Bahnverspätungen.

    #bahn #predictionmarket

  19. ChatBots "talking" to ChatBots.

    1. Ok, we knew this would happen.
    2. It has enormous adoption in the geeksphere - not surprising.
    3. It's wickedly insecure.
    4. Yes, it can steal your Crypto - not surprising!
    5. Yes, there is personal information stealing Malware (see #4 above) masquerading as prediction market trading automation tools - not surprising!
    6. The odds of a "Challenger level disaster" happening are real - not surprising!
    6. Finally, NO ONE knows where this is stuff will end up.

    What is the stage beyond wild wild west? That is where this thing is now. simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/ #OpenClaw #Moltbod #Clawdbot #AI #Opensource #Malware #PromptInjection #DigitalAssistent #ChatBot #SocialNetwork #AIAgents #Security #DataProtection #PersonalData #DataTheft #Crypto #PredictionMarket #Claude

  20. ChatBots "talking" to ChatBots.

    1. Ok, we knew this would happen.
    2. It has enormous adoption in the geeksphere - not surprising.
    3. It's wickedly insecure.
    4. Yes, it can steal your Crypto - not surprising!
    5. Yes, there is personal information stealing Malware (see #4 above) masquerading as prediction market trading automation tools - not surprising!
    6. The odds of a "Challenger level disaster" happening are real - not surprising!
    6. Finally, NO ONE knows where this is stuff will end up.

    What is the stage beyond wild wild west? That is where this thing is now. simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/ #OpenClaw #Moltbod #Clawdbot #AI #Opensource #Malware #PromptInjection #DigitalAssistent #ChatBot #SocialNetwork #AIAgents #Security #DataProtection #PersonalData #DataTheft #Crypto #PredictionMarket #Claude

  21. ChatBots "talking" to ChatBots.

    1. Ok, we knew this would happen.
    2. It has enormous adoption in the geeksphere - not surprising.
    3. It's wickedly insecure.
    4. Yes, it can steal your Crypto - not surprising!
    5. Yes, there is personal information stealing Malware (see #4 above) masquerading as prediction market trading automation tools - not surprising!
    6. The odds of a "Challenger level disaster" happening are real - not surprising!
    6. Finally, NO ONE knows where this is stuff will end up.

    What is the stage beyond wild wild west? That is where this thing is now. simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/ #OpenClaw #Moltbod #Clawdbot #AI #Opensource #Malware #PromptInjection #DigitalAssistent #ChatBot #SocialNetwork #AIAgents #Security #DataProtection #PersonalData #DataTheft #Crypto #PredictionMarket #Claude

  22. ChatBots "talking" to ChatBots.

    1. Ok, we knew this would happen.
    2. It has enormous adoption in the geeksphere - not surprising.
    3. It's wickedly insecure.
    4. Yes, it can steal your Crypto - not surprising!
    5. Yes, there is personal information stealing Malware (see #4 above) masquerading as prediction market trading automation tools - not surprising!
    6. The odds of a "Challenger level disaster" happening are real - not surprising!
    6. Finally, NO ONE knows where this is stuff will end up.

    What is the stage beyond wild wild west? That is where this thing is now. simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/ #OpenClaw #Moltbod #Clawdbot #AI #Opensource #Malware #PromptInjection #DigitalAssistent #ChatBot #SocialNetwork #AIAgents #Security #DataProtection #PersonalData #DataTheft #Crypto #PredictionMarket #Claude

  23. ChatBots "talking" to ChatBots.

    1. Ok, we knew this would happen.
    2. It has enormous adoption in the geeksphere - not surprising.
    3. It's wickedly insecure.
    4. Yes, it can steal your Crypto - not surprising!
    5. Yes, there is personal information stealing Malware (see #4 above) masquerading as prediction market trading automation tools - not surprising!
    6. The odds of a "Challenger level disaster" happening are real - not surprising!
    6. Finally, NO ONE knows where this is stuff will end up.

    What is the stage beyond wild wild west? That is where this thing is now. simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/

  24. “Gamblers, trying to collect their payout from #Polymarket, left baffled as they learn that the US operation carried out in Venezuela does not meet Polymarket's definition of an invasion”.

    (and just in case you’re wondering, #Polymarket is a #crypto thing, unlike #Kalshi which lets you gamble in real money)

    #Venezuela #Maduro #Trump #Uspol #predictionMarkets #predictionMarket #gambling

  25. #Kalshi, a #predictionmarket, raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation, led by Sequoia and CapitalG. The company, which allows #betting on future events, saw its trading volume surge to $50 billion annually. While Kalshi has legal clearance in the US, it faces challenges from state regulators. techcrunch.com/2025/11/20/sour #Pirates #Tech #Startup #News

  26. some Columbia professors just published a study of how prevalent wash trading and manipulation are on #predictionmarkets like #Polymarket and #Kalshi where you can bet on things like elections and wildfires is (spoiler: it’s so prevalent it was actually the majority of all betting activity around the time of the 2024 #election, a time when the prediction market numbers were reported by the media as if they were as good as polling data)

    > "We estimate that wash [trading] volume [on Polymarket] increased starting July 2024, until peaking at 60% of overall volume in December"

    i would wager this is almost certainly an undercount but overall a very impressive stab at getting a real number on this kind of thing.

    * thread summary of findings: x.com/allensirolly/status/1986
    * paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf

    #crypto #USDC #cryptocurrency #uspol #elections #PredictionMarket

  27. No tie, no suit

    > #Polymarket, the #cryptocurrency-based #predictionMarket, has a market that was predicting whether or not #Ukrainian President #VolodymyrZelenskyy would “wear a suit before July.”

    > This market has become extraordinarily controversial after Zelenskyy appeared at an event wearing a non-traditional suit.

    protos.com/zelenskyy-suit-poly

    #fashion #betting #crypto #ukraine

  28. Are you seriously risk adverse on Crypto currencies? Prove it - Bet on it! :-)

    WeBull launches prediction market for Bitcoin and Ethereum - aka users can bet on the anticipated moves of crypto prices in a over/under prediction style.

    prnewswire.com/news-releases/w #Crypto #CryptoCurrency #BitCoin #Ethereum #Prediction #PredictionMarket #Webull

  29. i try to avoid giving oxygen to the crypto prediction markets like #Kalshi *but* i thought it was heartening that those markets currently put the odds of #ElonMusk losing the #Wisconsin judicial race he's pouring tens of millions of dollars into at 86%.

    This is easily the most important election in the US for quite a long time to come and it looks like MAGA is going to go down in flames.
    kalshi.com/markets/kxwiscotus/

    #SusanCrawford #BradSchimel #TeslaTakedown #Tesla #PredictionMarket #USpol #MAGA #Trump #election

  30. A #predictionMarket on chances of the well-known (currently) e2e messaging apps revealing a user message to the US government is trading at...

    Signal 11%

    Apple iMessage 34%

    Meta WhatsApp 57%

    manifold.markets/DonMarti7bd2/

  31. New account, so new #introduction. Let's do it again!

    I have a
    #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

    In my spare time, I develop
    #OpenSourceSoftware such as
    - a
    #SphinxDoc extension that embed #Fediverse comments on your page
    - a library to talk to
    #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
    - a
    #PredictionMarket manager using the above
    - a
    #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
    - bug fixes to many other projects, including
    #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

    I spend a fair bit of my time these days on
    #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

    I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

    #Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

    We have two cats:
    #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive) See here for more on them!

    I speak English fluently, Spanish haltingly, and am trying to learn Chinese

    #queer #Chicago

  32. New account, so new #introduction. Let's do it again!

    I have a
    #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

    In my spare time, I develop
    #OpenSourceSoftware such as
    - a
    #SphinxDoc extension that embed #Fediverse comments on your page
    - a library to talk to
    #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
    - a
    #PredictionMarket manager using the above
    - a
    #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
    - bug fixes to many other projects, including
    #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

    I spend a fair bit of my time these days on
    #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

    I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

    #Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

    We have two cats:
    #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive) See here for more on them!

    I speak English fluently, Spanish haltingly, and am trying to learn Chinese

    #queer #Chicago

  33. New account, so new #introduction. Let's do it again!

    I have a
    #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

    In my spare time, I develop
    #OpenSourceSoftware such as
    - a
    #SphinxDoc extension that embed #Fediverse comments on your page
    - a library to talk to
    #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
    - a
    #PredictionMarket manager using the above
    - a
    #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
    - bug fixes to many other projects, including
    #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

    I spend a fair bit of my time these days on
    #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

    I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

    #Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

    We have two cats:
    #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive) See here for more on them!

    I speak English fluently, Spanish haltingly, and am trying to learn Chinese

    #queer #Chicago