#philadelphiaweatheroutlook — Public Fediverse posts

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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A persistent pattern of an upper low in Canada and a high pressure dome in the Southwest US will continue this week with some flattening of the upper trough in the center of the country. Disturbances continue to flow over and around the heat dome and around the upper low.

Here's what the upper levels look like to ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-107/

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Friday Forecast Update

Updated Fri 06/30 @ 7:36 AM — Some smoke is still expected to be impactful today, with improving conditions Saturday.

Here’s the latest HRRR smoke forecast for 2 PM Friday—

(https://theweatherguy.net/blog/wp-con... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Peak Smoke Thursday

Updated Thu 06/29 @ 10:17 AM —It will become increasingly smoky here in the Delaware Valley today, although values will be significantly less than a few weeks ago.

Using the latest HRRR smoke forecast—

(https://thewea... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Peak Smoke Thursday

It will become increasingly smoky here in the Delaware Valley today, although values will be significantly less than a few weeks ago.

Using the latest HRRR smoke forecast—

(https://theweatherguy.net/blog/wp-content/uplo... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Thursday-Friday Forecast & Weekend Outlook

Updated Wed 06/28 @ 9:32 PM — A nice day on Thursday. Plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Some increased smoke to contend with tomorrow.

Smoke level near ground tomorrow ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Wednesday Forecast Update

Updated Wed 06/28 @ 9:40 AM — Each model has varying degrees of cloudiness and sunshine today. A mix with more sunshine after 2 PM according to the latest NBM, but I would say today’s cloud cover forecast is a lowe... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Wednesday Forecast

Updated Tue 06/27 @ 8:05 PM — Wednesday looks better than the past two days. Sunshine in the morning, considerable low clouds at times in the afternoon. A few very widely scattered sprinkles move through during the afternoo... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Tuesday Forecast Update

Updated Tue 06/27 @ 5:26 PM — The earlier arrival of the storms as predicted by the high res models was closer to reality. Additional activity is may move in and intensify from now until 7 PM here in Philadelphia.

(h... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Tuesday Quick Forecast Update

Updated Tue 06/27 @ 11:39 AM — A quick update based on this morning’s high resolution models. Most models this morning have showers moving in as early as 3 PM -4 PM (3 PM western suburbs) with peak activity 5-7... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Tuesday Forecast

Updated Tue 06/27 @ 9:53 AM — Latest HRRR model forecasts showers and thunderstorms moving in as early as 4 PM today. Peak thunderstorm activity expected between 6 and 9 PM.

(https://theweatherguy.net/blog/wp-content/uploa... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Updated Mon 06/26 @ 9:31 PM — The main group of storms is poised to move into the immediate Philadelphia area with the next hour or so. Some of these storms are expected to be strong, possibly severe. Not much of this activity is expected to c... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Updated Mon 06/26 @ 5:16 PM — Latest NAM-NEST just available shows the heaviest rain and storms tonight in western and northwestern suburbs—

(https://theweatherguy.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/NEST_06-26-23_1715_25.jpg)This afternoo... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Problematic Forecast

Updated Mon 06/26 @ 4:15 PM — I’m looking at the latest HRRR and the live water vapor image. I have this terrible feeling that this afternoon’s forecast has been all wrong.

Most of the activity for the afternoon hav... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Monday Storm Update

Updated Mon 06/26 @ 12:45 PM — After reviewing this morning’s high resolution models, here’s what I see happening today—

- The models are not capturing this event all that perfectly. Many models have been showing s... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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I’m publishing this blog this morning in sections, as I write it. Come back in a few minutes for additions. For reasons unclear, I’m unable to obtain the Canadian HRDPS data and some NOAA data is also having issues this morning.

Heavy Thund... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Check back Monday morning for my take on the thunderstorms being predicted for late afternoon and evening Monday.... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17431
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather & Storm Forecasts — THIS WEEK’S WEATHER #weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Rainfall Totals

Update Sat 06/24 @ 8:15 AM —

(https://theweatherguy.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/MRMS_06-24-23_0756_51.jpg)MRMS rain gauge – radar rainfall totals through 7 AM Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Rain ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Rain Update

Update Fri 06/23 @ 4:29 PM — Many of us are finally seeing some moderate to heavy rain that’s been over-promised over the past few days.

At 1:30 PM, things were beginning to develop well to our south—

(https://theweathergu... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Friday’s Updated Forecast

Last night’s model’s promise of rain and storms this morning have materialized, but not in the location that had been forecast. The immediate Philadelphia area and Delaware Valley have missed this round of shower... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Friday Forecast

Update Thu 06/22 @ 7:33 PM — Since Tuesday, I’ve been saying the model forecasts haven’t been doing too good a job. After having posted several “total rain accumulation” forecast maps over past days, one should be won... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather & Storm Forecasts — THIS WEEK’S WEATHER #weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Thursday-Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 06/22 @ 8:58 AM — My update (#801) from last night still holds. Here are some additional insights—

- Mainly dry Thursday afternoon

- Warm front moves through around daybreak Friday. Showers and ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather & Storm Forecasts — THIS WEEK’S WEATHER #weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Thursday-Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 06/22 @ 8:58 AM — My update (#801) from last night still holds. Here are some additional insights—

- Mainly dry Thursday afternoon

- Warm front moves through around daybreak Friday. Showers and ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather & Storm Forecasts — THIS WEEK’S WEATHER #weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Rain Forecast Update

Update Wed 06/21 @ 8:01 PM — The rain moved in about 6-8 hours earlier than had been forecast last night. The rainfall has been much less than predicted and total rainfall through Thursday morning will be less than 0.5 in... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather & Storm Forecasts — THIS WEEK’S WEATHER #weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Rain Forecast Update

Update Wed 06/21 @ 11:20 AM — As mentioned in my forecast review (#review) yesterday, the sunnier conditions than forecast on Tuesday suggested that the models are not capturing this weather event well.

This morning’s ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Rain Forecast Update

Update Wed 6/21 @ 7:35 AM — No change from last night’s forecast update. Rain moves in from the south between 8 PM and 11 PM this evening.

The latest ECMWF model shows a negatively tilted upper air trough develops to o... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Wednesday – Friday Rain Update

Update Tue 06/20 @ 8:28 PM — Today’s models continue with the forecast of rain moving in from the south Wednesday evening, about 8PM to 11PM and continuing on and off Wednesday night through Saturday.

It w... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Rain Update

Update Tue 06/20 @ 9:54 AM — Most models have the rain advancing into the Philadelphia area around 9 PM – midnight Wednesday evening.

There’s a divergence in the models for the track of the heaviest rain, with some keeping i... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Outlook Update

Update Mon 06/19 @ 5:30 PM— The high cloud cover that moved in today is from the system in the Southeastern US. The models continue with their trend towards significant cloudiness on Tuesday.

There is a chance of some light s... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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A Change in Forecast

Update Mon 06/19 @ 8:43 AM — Cloudiness from the southern system was expected this week, limiting high temperatures. But it looks like the upper low and associated surface low in the Southeastern US will intensify enough ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Weather Overview

The blocked pattern that gave us the dry weather during the previous many weeks has re-established itself, this time with the center of the block shifted somewhat eastward. The current pattern also differs from the previous blo... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17341
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Philadelphia Weekend Weather & Storm Forecasts — THIS WEEK’S WEATHER Monday Storm Update

Update Mon 6/12 12:54 PM — So my 12:12 update indicating a later start and a westward axis of rain appears to be the an error of inadequate model spin-up time. I’m going to lean back towards the earlier model run forecasts (#earlier) with a 2-3 PM onset and heavier... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/?p=17210
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THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Shower Forecast Update

Update Fri 06/02 @ 9:10 AM — Despite reasonably high CAPE and thermal instability, the lack of soil moisture feedback and marginal available precipitable water (PWAT= 1.3") will result in a low degree of shower activity Friday afternoon.

V ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

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THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Shower Forecast Update

Update Fri 06/02 @ 9:10 AM — Despite reasonably high CAPE and thermal instability, the lack of soil moisture feedback and marginal available precipitable water (PWAT= 1.3") will result in a low degree of shower activity Friday afternoon.

V ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Shower Forecast Update

Update Fri 06/02 @ 9:10 AM — Despite reasonably high CAPE and thermal instability, the lack of soil moisture feedback and marginal available precipitable water (PWAT= 1.3") will result in a low degree of shower activity Friday afternoon.

V ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Shower Forecast Update

Update Fri 06/02 @ 9:10 AM — Despite reasonably high CAPE and thermal instability, the lack of soil moisture feedback and marginal available precipitable water (PWAT= 1.3") will result in a low degree of shower activity Friday afternoon.

V ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Shower Forecast Update

Update Fri 06/02 @ 9:10 AM — Despite reasonably high CAPE and thermal instability, the lack of soil moisture feedback and marginal available precipitable water (PWAT= 1.3") will result in a low degree of shower activity Friday afternoon.

V ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 6/01 @ 10:38 PM —Tonight’s models just coming in show widely scattered showers and thunderstorms moving down from the north Friday afternoon. Peak time about 5-6 PM but possible as early as 3 PM. Widely scattered is the operativ ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 6/01 @ 10:38 PM —Tonight’s models just coming in show widely scattered showers and thunderstorms moving down from the north Friday afternoon. Peak time about 5-6 PM but possible as early as 3 PM. Widely scattered is the operativ ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 6/01 @ 10:38 PM —Tonight’s models just coming in show widely scattered showers and thunderstorms moving down from the north Friday afternoon. Peak time about 5-6 PM but possible as early as 3 PM. Widely scattered is the operativ ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 6/01 @ 10:38 PM —Tonight’s models just coming in show widely scattered showers and thunderstorms moving down from the north Friday afternoon. Peak time about 5-6 PM but possible as early as 3 PM. Widely scattered is the operativ ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 6/01 @ 10:38 PM —Tonight’s models just coming in show widely scattered showers and thunderstorms moving down from the north Friday afternoon. Peak time about 5-6 PM but possible as early as 3 PM. Widely scattered is the operativ ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 06/01 @ 4:30 PM — Most models are forecasting high temperatures around 92º-93º on Friday afternoon.

That said, the ECMWF, German ICON and Canadian HRDPS are showing some suburbs of Philadelphia reach 95º-96º.

The NBM wh ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 06/01 @ 4:30 PM — Most models are forecasting high temperatures around 92º-93º on Friday afternoon.

That said, the ECMWF, German ICON and Canadian HRDPS are showing some suburbs of Philadelphia reach 95º-96º.

The NBM wh ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 06/01 @ 4:30 PM — Most models are forecasting high temperatures around 92º-93º on Friday afternoon.

That said, the ECMWF, German ICON and Canadian HRDPS are showing some suburbs of Philadelphia reach 95º-96º.

The NBM wh ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 06/01 @ 4:30 PM — Most models are forecasting high temperatures around 92º-93º on Friday afternoon.

That said, the ECMWF, German ICON and Canadian HRDPS are showing some suburbs of Philadelphia reach 95º-96º.

The NBM wh ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Friday Forecast Update

Update Thu 06/01 @ 4:30 PM — Most models are forecasting high temperatures around 92º-93º on Friday afternoon.

That said, the ECMWF, German ICON and Canadian HRDPS are showing some suburbs of Philadelphia reach 95º-96º.

The NBM wh ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Possibly some thunderstorms early Friday evening?

Update Wed 05/31 @ 5:35 PM — The incredible weather we've been having is really quite perfect, BUT there's been a significant deficit in rainfall in may areas, especially from Philadelphia and the suburbs immediatel ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

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Possibly some thunderstorms early Friday evening?

Update Wed 05/31 @ 5:35 PM — The incredible weather we've been having is really quite perfect, BUT there's been a significant deficit in rainfall in may areas, especially from Philadelphia and the suburbs immediatel ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Possibly some thunderstorms early Friday evening?

Update Wed 05/31 @ 5:35 PM — The incredible weather we've been having is really quite perfect, BUT there's been a significant deficit in rainfall in may areas, especially from Philadelphia and the suburbs immediatel ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Possibly some thunderstorms early Friday evening?

Update Wed 05/31 @ 5:35 PM — The incredible weather we've been having is really quite perfect, BUT there's been a significant deficit in rainfall in may areas, especially from Philadelphia and the suburbs immediatel ... https://theweatherguy.net/blog/this-weeks-weather-99/

#PhiladelphiaWeatherOutlook #OmegaBlock #RapidRefreshForecastSystem #RexBlock #RRFS