#monkeybox — Public Fediverse posts

#MonkeyBox #ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection #ClactonByElectionCandidates

🛠️ #JerkInProgress

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

#MonkeyBox #ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection #ClactonByElectionCandidates

🛠️ #JerkInProgress

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

Ceci n'est pas une Vote Poll.

#MonkeyBox

https://vote-scope.com/en/uk/byelections/clacton/

Ceci n'est pas une Vote Poll.

#MonkeyBox

https://vote-scope.com/en/uk/byelections/clacton/

I'm having issues with the polls for the Clacton by-election.

There is a tendency to average out previous winning candidates and call that a projection.

Using the same technique, the pollsters have averaged out who will be the winning candidate based on past performance in the constituency. (Count Binface not being a winner or standing in every election before.)

#MonkeyBox

I'm having issues with the polls for the Clacton by-election.

There is a tendency to average out previous winning candidates and call that a projection.

Using the same technique, the pollsters have averaged out who will be the winning candidate based on past performance in the constituency. (Count Binface not being a winner or standing in every election before.)

#MonkeyBox

Incoming #MonkeyBox Constituency Toot

Ladywood #Ladywood #LadywoodBirmingham

🛠️ #TootInProgress

Incoming #MonkeyBox Constituency Toot

Ladywood #Ladywood #LadywoodBirmingham

🛠️ #TootInProgress

#MonkeyBox

#ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection #PollProjection

This one is a little bit very egregious.
You take a high, you take a low, and find the middle.
That is NOT a projection.

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

#MonkeyBox

#ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection #PollProjection

This one is a little bit very egregious.
You take a high, you take a low, and find the middle.
That is NOT a projection.

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

#MonkeyBox #ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection #ClactonByElectionCandidates

🛠️ #JerkInProgress

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

(hand typed from screenshot)

#MonkeyBox #ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection #ClactonByElectionCandidates

🛠️ #JerkInProgress

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

(hand typed from screenshot)

@Geri

#MonkeyBox

stats look doable -- the combined Con-Lab-LibDem vote was about 48.5% in 2024 and Farage's figures compared to previous incumbents are pants

#MonkeyBox

2024 General Election

winner majority turnout electorate
ReformUK 18.3% 58.7% 78,245
8,405 votes

Reform UK 46.2%

Conservative 27.9%

Labour 16.2%

Liberal Democrat 04.4%

Green 04.2%

Other 01.1%

@Geri

#MonkeyBox

stats look doable -- the combined Con-Lab-LibDem vote was about 48.5% in 2024 and Farage's figures compared to previous incumbents are pants

#MonkeyBox

2024 General Election

winner majority turnout electorate
ReformUK 18.3% 58.7% 78,245
8,405 votes

Reform UK 46.2%

Conservative 27.9%

Labour 16.2%

Liberal Democrat 04.4%

Green 04.2%

Other 01.1%

#MonkeyBox #ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection

🛠️ #JerkInProgress

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

(hand typed from screenshot)

There is no recent poll of Farage's standing in Clacton itself.
His personal favourability is tracked nationally, shown below -- a Britain wide figure, not a Clacton one.
For the local context, he the seat in 2024 with 46.2% and the PollCheck seat model projects near 60% in Clacton now.

Nigel Farage net favourability
Britain wide, 7-poll rolling average -- National figure, not Clacton-specific.

Source: PollCheck leadership approval tracker : updated as new polls are published.

2024 General Election

winner majority turnout electorate
ReformUK 18.3% 58.7% 78,245

Reform UK 46.2%

Conservative 27.9%

Labour 16.2%

Liberal Democrat 04.4%

Green 04.2%

Other 01.1%

Past results

Election Winner Party Share Majority Turnout

2024 General Election Nigel Farage Reform UK

2019 General Election Giles Watling Conservative

2017 General Election Giles Watling Conservative

2015 General Election Douglas Carswell UKIP

2014 by election Douglas Carswell UKIP

2010 General Election Douglas Carswell Conservative

General elections upto 2019 and the 2014 by-election were fought on Clacton's previous boundaries, the 2024 general e#ection used the revised 2024 boundaries.
Sources: House of Commons Library results files (general elections); declared result as reported for the 2014 by-election.

#MonkeyBox #ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection

🛠️ #JerkInProgress

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

(hand typed from screenshot)

There is no recent poll of Farage's standing in Clacton itself.
His personal favourability is tracked nationally, shown below -- a Britain wide figure, not a Clacton one.
For the local context, he the seat in 2024 with 46.2% and the PollCheck seat model projects near 60% in Clacton now.

Nigel Farage net favourability
Britain wide, 7-poll rolling average -- National figure, not Clacton-specific.

Source: PollCheck leadership approval tracker : updated as new polls are published.

2024 General Election

winner majority turnout electorate
ReformUK 18.3% 58.7% 78,245

Reform UK 46.2%

Conservative 27.9%

Labour 16.2%

Liberal Democrat 04.4%

Green 04.2%

Other 01.1%

Past results

Election Winner Party Share Majority Turnout

2024 General Election Nigel Farage Reform UK

2019 General Election Giles Watling Conservative

2017 General Election Giles Watling Conservative

2015 General Election Douglas Carswell UKIP

2014 by election Douglas Carswell UKIP

2010 General Election Douglas Carswell Conservative

General elections upto 2019 and the 2014 by-election were fought on Clacton's previous boundaries, the 2024 general e#ection used the revised 2024 boundaries.
Sources: House of Commons Library results files (general elections); declared result as reported for the 2014 by-election.

#MonkeyBox #ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

#MonkeyBox #ClactonOnSea #Clacton #ClactonByElection

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/clacton

additional maps showing where the wards are

#Sandwell #PollCheck #MonkeyBox
#PrincesEnd #TiptonGreen #StPauls #SohoAndVictoria

additional maps showing where the wards are

#Sandwell #PollCheck #MonkeyBox
#PrincesEnd #TiptonGreen #StPauls #SohoAndVictoria

More Sandwell Council analysis incoming!

⚒️ Work In Progress ⚒️

Here the way Sandwell is basically a population divided neatly in two by voting results will be shown -- overall the vote share is Labour (36%) and Reform (38%) which suggests the wards were tight but there are virtually no "this ward was a marginal result which could have gone either way" results.
It's Reds vs Blues, East vs West, DC vs Marvel.

( note: despite using a Lenovo tablet for eaiser typing, Google-Android futz with my stuff, so even typing on scrabble size keys, it plays up and miskeys, thus wasting my time ... )

#Sandwell #PollCheck #MonkeyBox
#PrincesEnd #TiptonGreen #StPauls #SohoAndVictoria

More Sandwell Council analysis incoming!

⚒️ Work In Progress ⚒️

Here the way Sandwell is basically a population divided neatly in two by voting results will be shown -- overall the vote share is Labour (36%) and Reform (38%) which suggests the wards were tight but there are virtually no "this ward was a marginal result which could have gone either way" results.
It's Reds vs Blues, East vs West, DC vs Marvel.

( note: despite using a Lenovo tablet for eaiser typing, Google-Android futz with my stuff, so even typing on scrabble size keys, it plays up and miskeys, thus wasting my time ... )

#Sandwell #PollCheck #MonkeyBox
#PrincesEnd #TiptonGreen #StPauls #SohoAndVictoria

Just heard (on BBCRadio) that West Brom Council was won by Reform in May but the polling and results that I see does not say that.

#WestBromwich #Sandwell #MonkeyBox #PollCheck #Green #Labour

Just heard (on BBCRadio) that West Brom Council was won by Reform in May but the polling and results that I see does not say that.

#WestBromwich #Sandwell #MonkeyBox #PollCheck #Green #Labour

PollCheck site showing "Westminister voting intention"
(page allows you to change variables and calculate seats)

#MonkeyBox #WestministerVotingIntention #PollCheck

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/

PollCheck site showing "Westminister voting intention"
(page allows you to change variables and calculate seats)

#MonkeyBox #WestministerVotingIntention #PollCheck

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/

Birmingham City Council website page for the Birmingham City Council local elections results

#MonkeyBox #Birmingham #Birmingham2026

https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/info/50382/election_results_2026

Birmingham City Council website page for the Birmingham City Council local elections results

#MonkeyBox #Birmingham #Birmingham2026

https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/info/50382/election_results_2026

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

breakdown of share of the vote in Sparkbrook & BalsallHeath

good example of percentages lining up with the number of votes

nary a sign of Reform

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol
#GreenPartyUK #Labour

#Sparkbrook #BalsallHeath #Birmingham #MonkeyBox

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

breakdown of share of the vote in Sparkbrook & BalsallHeath

good example of percentages lining up with the number of votes

nary a sign of Reform

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol
#GreenPartyUK #Labour

#Sparkbrook #BalsallHeath #Birmingham #MonkeyBox

#TheDeformation #HelpMeJohnMastodonYoureMyOnlyHope

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of share of the vote

Reform scrapes two wins on a marginal vote with other parties very close behind -- the projection was for Reform to get the majority of the vote and be clear winner

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Reform
#GreenPartyUK #Labour

#WeoleyAndSellyOak #WeoleyCastle #SellyOak

#TheDeformation #HelpMeJohnMastodonYoureMyOnlyHope

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of share of the vote

Reform scrapes two wins on a marginal vote with other parties very close behind -- the projection was for Reform to get the majority of the vote and be clear winner

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Reform
#GreenPartyUK #Labour

#WeoleyAndSellyOak #WeoleyCastle #SellyOak

Blink! And, you'll miss it!

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of share of the vote

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Reform
#GreenPartyUK #Labour

Blink! And, you'll miss it!

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of share of the vote

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Reform
#GreenPartyUK #Labour

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of council seats in the Billesley ward

(... which was projected to go to Reform but ...)

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Reform
#Billesley

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of council seats in the Billesley ward

(... which was projected to go to Reform but ...)

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Reform
#Billesley

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of council wards in the Land of Chocolate Constituency

(... which was projected to go to Reform but ...)

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Reform
#MmmmChocolateHalfPrice

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of council wards in the Land of Chocolate Constituency

(... which was projected to go to Reform but ...)

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Reform
#MmmmChocolateHalfPrice

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Birmingham #KingsHeath #DruidsHeath #HodgeHill #GravellyHill

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol #Birmingham #KingsHeath #DruidsHeath #HodgeHill #GravellyHill

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of council wards in the Ladywood Constituency

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#ShabanaMahmoodMP #ShabanaMahmood
#Edgbaston #Ladywood #Nechells #Highgate #Bordesley #Soho #JewelleryQuarter #Birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

Breakdown of council wards in the Ladywood Constituency

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

#ShabanaMahmoodMP #ShabanaMahmood
#Edgbaston #Ladywood #Nechells #Highgate #Bordesley #Soho #JewelleryQuarter #Birmingham

#MonkeyBox #CouncilElections2026 #UKPoll #UKPol

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

#MonkeyBox #Birmingham

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

#MonkeyBox #Birmingham

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

Glebe Farm & Tile Cross
Election postponed

A candidate died during the nomination period. Under the Representation of the People Act 1983 (s.39), the entire poll is countermanded and rescheduled, typically within 28 days.
No projection is shown for this ward.

#MonkeyBox #Birmingham #GlebeFarm #TileCross

Birmingham Council Elections 2026 results

https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/council-projections/birmingham/#/birmingham

Glebe Farm & Tile Cross
Election postponed

A candidate died during the nomination period. Under the Representation of the People Act 1983 (s.39), the entire poll is countermanded and rescheduled, typically within 28 days.
No projection is shown for this ward.

#MonkeyBox #Birmingham #GlebeFarm #TileCross

Birmingham Council elections 2026

Independent Candidate Alliance councillors

#MonkeyBox

(page will not load for me)
https://independentcandidatealliance.co.uk/pages/crime-safety

Birmingham Council elections 2026

Independent Candidate Alliance councillors

#MonkeyBox

(page will not load for me)
https://independentcandidatealliance.co.uk/pages/crime-safety

Birmingham Council elections 2026

Workers Party councillors

#MonkeyBox

BIRMINGHAM

"In a major upset the leader of Birmingham city council, John Cotton has certainly lost his seat in Glebe Farm & Tile Cross to the Workers Party which has surely won its first Birmingham seat with Shehryar Kayani making the breakthrough. The result has been RECOUNTED numerous times with the result always the same, but some unknown force is insisting on further recounts and this is now the ONLY seat to be recounted on Monday.... In Birmingham a further number of candidates from the Independent Candidates Alliance with whom the Workers Party were allied made it through laying the foundations for future work in Birmingham, not least on the parliamentary front."

https://www.workerspartygb.org/wins_for_workers_in_local_elections

Birmingham Council elections 2026

Workers Party councillors

#MonkeyBox

BIRMINGHAM

"In a major upset the leader of Birmingham city council, John Cotton has certainly lost his seat in Glebe Farm & Tile Cross to the Workers Party which has surely won its first Birmingham seat with Shehryar Kayani making the breakthrough. The result has been RECOUNTED numerous times with the result always the same, but some unknown force is insisting on further recounts and this is now the ONLY seat to be recounted on Monday.... In Birmingham a further number of candidates from the Independent Candidates Alliance with whom the Workers Party were allied made it through laying the foundations for future work in Birmingham, not least on the parliamentary front."

https://www.workerspartygb.org/wins_for_workers_in_local_elections

Birmingham Council elections 2026

LibDem Party councillors (page not updated)

#MonkeyBox

https://www.birminghamlibdems.org.uk/our-councillors

Birmingham Council elections 2026

LibDem Party councillors (page not updated)

#MonkeyBox

https://www.birminghamlibdems.org.uk/our-councillors

Birmingham Council elections 2026

Labour Party councillors (page not updated)

#MonkeyBox

https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/councillors/specificParty/1/labour

Birmingham Council elections 2026

Labour Party councillors (page not updated)

#MonkeyBox

https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/councillors/specificParty/1/labour

Birmingham Council elections 2026

Green Party councillors

#MonkeyBox

https://birmingham.greenparty.org.uk/2026/05/08/hope-lands-in-birmingham/

Birmingham Council elections 2026

Green Party councillors

#MonkeyBox

https://birmingham.greenparty.org.uk/2026/05/08/hope-lands-in-birmingham/

@drrimmer

🤔 "surge" ?

corrected for you:

"mediocre support for Reform, but division and weakening of support for other parties, leads to some more results for the Reform UK plc party in the few council wards that were being contested this time around and the national parliaments of Wales and Scotland"

#MonkeyBox

@drrimmer

🤔 "surge" ?

corrected for you:

"mediocre support for Reform, but division and weakening of support for other parties, leads to some more results for the Reform UK plc party in the few council wards that were being contested this time around and the national parliaments of Wales and Scotland"

#MonkeyBox

Birmingham Council results from the Birmingham City Council Council election results page which has had a few issues with user demand for results but nearly has all the results so far.

#MonkeyBox #Birmingham #TameImpala

(page with clickable bits)
https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/info/50382/election_results_2026

Birmingham Council results from the Birmingham City Council Council election results page which has had a few issues with user demand for results but nearly has all the results so far.

#MonkeyBox #Birmingham #TameImpala

(page with clickable bits)
https://www.birmingham.gov.uk/info/50382/election_results_2026