#metaculus — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #metaculus, aggregated by home.social.
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Era of AGI – what issues we really need to think through now!
#Metaculus, #AGI, #ArtificialGeneralIntelligence, #ArtificialIntelligence, #SilverTuringTest, #Consciousness, #HumanRights, #Ethics, #MoralDuty, #RightToLife, #SelfDetermination, #AI
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Anybody playing on a #PredictionMarket or specifically #ManifoldMarkets here? I just created a question about our german gas storage levels: https://manifold.markets/copacetic/will-germanys-gas-storage-in-2023-d?referrer=copacetic
(I also created a similar question on #Metaculus but publication requires a review there and will take a while)
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Neat article comparing the accuracy of different #forecasting entities on the #midterms
https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison
Summary:
- #Metaculus is closest
- 538 is just behind them
- #ManifoldMarkets is a fair margin below that
- everyone else is significantly worseNote: one election cycle is a really small sample and you shouldn't draw huge conclusions without more such cycles