#metaculus — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #metaculus, aggregated by home.social.
-
+39% in a week 📈 Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28338/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-21% in a day 📉 Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26962/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-22% in a week 📉 Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28002/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-25% in a day 📉 Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26962/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-30% in a week 📉 Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20775/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-30% in a week 📉 Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21306/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-39% in an hour 📉 Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27440/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-30% in a week 📉 Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20775/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-24% in an hour 📉 Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27898/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-24% in a week 📉 Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20776/ #prediction #Metaculus -
+28% in a week 📈 Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26962/ #prediction #Metaculus -
-22% in a day 📉 Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19949/ #prediction #Metaculus -
The #bot is now a #week old, so from now on such weekly change reports are possible.
Also, #Metaculus finally works. I had to change the timestamps.
-
+72% in a week 📈 Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19969/ #prediction #Metaculus -
Era of AGI – what issues we really need to think through now!
#Metaculus, #AGI, #ArtificialGeneralIntelligence, #ArtificialIntelligence, #SilverTuringTest, #Consciousness, #HumanRights, #Ethics, #MoralDuty, #RightToLife, #SelfDetermination, #AI
-
Ära der AGI steht vor der Tür!
#Metaculus, #Prognosen, #AGI, #ArtificialGeneralIntelligence, #KünstlicheIntelligenz, #SilverTuringTest, #Bewusstsein, #Menschenrechte, #Verantwortung, #Ethik, #MoralischePflicht, #RechtAufLeben, #Selbstbestimmung, #KI
-
Donald Trump Spends Time in Jail or Prison #metaculus resolves as yes, based on a broad interpretation of “jail”, “spends”, “time”, and of course “in” https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/
-
Donald Trump Spends Time in Jail or Prison #metaculus resolves as yes, based on a broad interpretation of “jail”, “spends”, “time”, and of course “in” https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/
-
TIL prediction markets
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarketI've looked at a few platforms today and it's fascinating how many statements (markets) are about AI developments at the moment.
#predictionmarkets #manifold #polymarket #metaculus #predictions #forecasting
-
TIL prediction markets
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarketI've looked at a few platforms today and it's fascinating how many statements (markets) are about AI developments at the moment.
#predictionmarkets #manifold #polymarket #metaculus #predictions #forecasting
-
Had fun filling out the #metaculus scoring survey: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfqMqMYxwizdwWK50FipoGaax25EwgD2IKzMNohHyVHrJ42kw/viewform
-
#metaculus is asking the important questions: “will a #StarTrek and #StarWars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060” – considering industry consolidation, copyright duration, AI capabilities, and monetization pressure, I’m at 61% for yes #predictions #predictionMarkets https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011/star-trek-and-star-wars-crossover-before-2060/
-
#metaculus now has an official API. I should build something with it. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15141/officially-launching-the-metaculus-api/
-
I haven’t written a #metaculus question in a while (it takes some thinking to put together good resolution criteria), but I’d love to see predictions about AI art-related copyright settlement amounts in the coming years
-
Anybody playing on a #PredictionMarket or specifically #ManifoldMarkets here? I just created a question about our german gas storage levels: https://manifold.markets/copacetic/will-germanys-gas-storage-in-2023-d?referrer=copacetic
(I also created a similar question on #Metaculus but publication requires a review there and will take a while)
-
for all interested in #future #predictions and #space, #metaculus has opened a tounament dedicated to the new space economy and developments
-
Neat article comparing the accuracy of different #forecasting entities on the #midterms
https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison
Summary:
- #Metaculus is closest
- 538 is just behind them
- #ManifoldMarkets is a fair margin below that
- everyone else is significantly worseNote: one election cycle is a really small sample and you shouldn't draw huge conclusions without more such cycles
-
> I like VS Code. But I wish there was an easy place to log this bet, like #Metaculus or #GoodJudgementProject, superforecaster style. I’d bet long odds today that VS Code will be replaced in Lindy-time.
I haven't encountered that exact usage of "lindy-time" before – are you saying that you believe vscode's future lifespan is lower than its past lifespan? I.e., that it'll be essentially dead in ~5 years?
I *don't* like vscode but would take the other side of that bet
-
If you want to practice making accurate predictions, I recommend Metaculus! It's a website that allows you to make predictions, with uncertainty ranges, on questions about the future. You can also propose new questions.
https://www.metaculus.com/