#mechanismdesign — Public Fediverse posts

Polymarket question: "will Jesus Christ return in 2025?" has a 3% probability.

Polymarket wants to provide a public good: correct probability estimates. It fails because how the market is structured and limited.

spoiler: "The Yes people are betting that, later this year, their counterparties (the No betters) will want cash (to bet on other markets), and so will sell out of their No positions at a higher price."

https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/

#economics #predictionMarkets #mechanismDesign #MarketDesign #gameTheory

📢#OutNow in #OA: 'Models in #Microeconomic Theory: Expanded Second Edition (She & He)' by Martin J. Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein.

Part I presents models of an #economic agent, discussing abstract models of preferences, choice, and decision-making under uncertainty, before turning to models of the #consumer, the #producer, and #monopoly. Part II introduces the concept of #equilibrium, beginning, unconventionally, with the models of the jungle and an #economy with indivisible goods, and continuing with models of an exchange economy, equilibrium with rational expectations, and an #economy with asymmetric information. Part III provides an introduction to #gametheory, covering #strategic and extensive #games and the concepts of #Nash #equilibrium and #subgame perfect equilibrium. Part IV gives a taste of the topics of #mechanismdesign, #matching, the #axiomatic analysis of #economic systems, and #socialchoice.

https://doi.org/10.11647/OBP.0361
https://doi.org/10.11647/OBP.0362