#manifoldmarkets — Public Fediverse posts

New account, so new #introduction. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a #SphinxDoc extension that embed #Fediverse comments on your page
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive) See here for more on them!

I speak English fluently, Spanish haltingly, and am trying to learn Chinese

#queer #Chicago

Oh dang, my #introduction post is waaay out of date now. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as

• a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
• a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
• a #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
• bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive)

#queer #Chicago

I used to like #ManifoldMarkets. At first, you played for a currency they called Mana, and you could donate your Mana for real money for a charity. After a while, they determined to split this up in Mana and Prize money, and only prize money could be donated. Now, there's another change. All Prize money I had collected so far is gone, and another currency called Sweepcash replaces this, but can only be used by residents of some American states. So gone are the $36 I had saved up for charity! 😡

Saw a couple people were trying to get #LibreMonday off the ground. Here's my contribution.

https://manifold.markets/ is a free and open source prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on if something will happen using internet points. The calibration (how accurate the site is) is extremely good. The community is also amazing and extremely kind. I highly recommend you check it out.

Source code: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold
Ref link if you want to give me free internet points: https://manifold.markets?referrer=Rucker

#foss #opensource #predictionmarket #manifoldmarkets

I really *want* to go back to #ManifoldMarkets, but I find myself anxious when I do. I gave myself too much responsibility to make it fun anymore. If I do go back, I am going to mostly be a trader

@foone @niki here, there's been a market on #manifoldmarkets about this for a while: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-chatbotting-replace-ghosting-b?r=YWdlbnR5ZHJhZ29u

Was just listening to an interesting podcast (#HardFork) on #ManifoldMarkets & #PredictionMarkets in general... keen to have a play but thought I would ask if anyone here has a #Manifold referral code they would like me to use? 😁

(For anyone thinking "eh?" - it's a betting prediction market on all aspects of life - not just sports & politics. And it's just play money. Still, probably best avoided for anyone for whom gambling is an issue!)

The Wager That Betting Can Change the World - A coterie of tech insiders believe that “prediction markets” can fix social ills. Are the... - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html #computersandtheinternet #pollsandpublicopinion #astralcodexten(blog) #bankman-friedsam #eliezeryudkowsky #manifoldmarkets

Who will win the Premier League 2023-2024? Place your Manifold Market bets here!

https://manifold.markets/ErwinRossen/who-will-win-the-premier-league-202

#PremierLeague #ManifoldMarkets

I have created my first prediction market on #ManifoldMarkets about the share of #solar in Dutch electricity production in 2030. Go ahead and have a bet if you have an opinion on it!

https://manifold.markets/ErwinRossen/will-the-share-of-electricity-produ?r=RXJ3aW5Sb3NzZW4

Anybody playing on a #PredictionMarket or specifically #ManifoldMarkets here? I just created a question about our german gas storage levels: https://manifold.markets/copacetic/will-germanys-gas-storage-in-2023-d?referrer=copacetic

(I also created a similar question on #Metaculus but publication requires a review there and will take a while)

I want to learn #Rust

Would anyone be interested in a #Rust binding to #ManifoldMarkets and related services?

I've been fascinated with the idea of prediction markets lately, and with Manifold Markets in particular. In a nutshell, it's a place where you can ask any question and people can bet their play-money on the outcomes. You don't earn anything with it but it's fun and having a lot of Manifold $ might give you some status as a good forecaster.

One of the things I like about Manifold is that the range of topics is wide, though admittedly centered around EA at the moment. I also really like the way it tries to encourage asking long-term questions by giving you a part of your bets back as loans.

I thought it'd be fun to create some PL and logic questions, so far added these:
- What will be the most popular non JavaScript-like language on Github in 2023? (https://manifold.markets/JesperCockx/what-will-be-the-most-popular-non-j)
- Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050? (https://manifold.markets/JesperCockx/will-an-inconsistency-in-the-calcul)

If you add any PL questions of your own, let me know so I can make a bet!

#PredictionMarket #ManifoldMarkets #github #ProgrammingLanguages #CIC

Lastly, a market about #ads. This one resolves to yes if #Tumblr injects ads into their #ActivityPub exposed feeds

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-tumblr-implementing

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions #advertising

We also have markets for whether you can follow a #Tumblr account from an external #ActivityPub account. I picked #Mastodon for convenience. This seems a little less likely to me, as it takes you away from their ads.

Again, 2023 and 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from-8c2db6d325e1

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Predictions #Fediverse

First up, will they allow you to follow an external #ActivityPub account from #Tumblr? This seems most likely to me, of these. I have created two markets, one for EoY 2023, one for EoY 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter-6da47e524d0f

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions

Alright everybody, #Tumblr has indicated that they want to support #ActivityPub, but I think we are all a bit skeptical about how that might look. This thread is meant to collect #PredictionMarkets about how aspects of this might work out. They are all hosted on #ManifoldMarkets, so you don't need to worry about staking real money if you don't want to

Note that it will probably take a few days for these to settle, depending on activity

Well this makes me feel great about #ManifoldMarkets

Neat article comparing the accuracy of different #forecasting entities on the #midterms

https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison

Summary:
- #Metaculus is closest
- 538 is just behind them
- #ManifoldMarkets is a fair margin below that
- everyone else is significantly worse

Note: one election cycle is a really small sample and you shouldn't draw huge conclusions without more such cycles

It's time for a re-#introduction!

I'm a #MastersStudent in #ComputerScience. In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #cpython, and more

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Bi, #transfem, and happily dating my enby sweetheart

Turns out that #ManifoldMarkets is well calibrated, if you restrict yourself to markets with at least 5 trades.

The attached image shows dots for each 10% bucket. If the dot is on the green line, that means that bucket matched expectation, since those events happened with their expected probability.

The biggest errors are towards the extremes, which makes sense. As things stand now, it is often difficult to get the true probability of things in the 0-5%/95-100% buckets

Follow the midterms on #ManifoldMarkets

https://manifold.markets/midterms

@lachlan
#ManifoldMarkets has odds on this. Currently ~20% that Twitter basically goes under faster than Tumblr did

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-twitter-beat-tumblr-at-97-deva

This is one of the more useful aspects of #ManifoldMarkets: it gives people an incentive to provide actual feedback. Some of these name suggestions are damn good

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/what-should-i-rename-my-market-mana

It's time for a re-#introduction!

I'm a #MastersStudent in #ComputerScience. In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #cpython, and more

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Bi, #transfem, and happily dating my enby sweetheart

@ben
This is one of my more popular markets. In the description it has some others embedded for different timeframes/triggers

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a-bd5ee56971ea

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets

Currently talking with the folks at #ManifoldMarkets about bridging their platform to Mastodon. If it works, this would enable you to directly interact with the comments in their markets. It would, unfortunately, not enable a fediverse account to trade on Mastodon, but it should work for follows, likes, shares, and replies.

Below is a market for how likely this is to actually happen:
https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-i-make-a-bridge-between-manifo

#PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #ActivityPub #Bridge