#jlpartners — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #jlpartners, aggregated by home.social.
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GB OPINION POLL ACCURACY
Overall, the GB opinion polling average overestimated Labour, underestimated the Conservatives, were all over the place with Reform and missed the increase in votes for 'Other' parties/candidates.
The most accurate, however, in order, were:
1. Norstat UK Polls (#Norstat)
2. Verian Group (#Verian)
3. JL Partners Polls (#JLPartners)All of them were less than 2 points off the actual result for each party on average.
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The next closest MRP, by some margin, was #JLPartners.
Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:
🔴 Labour: -31
🔵 Conservatives: +10
🟠 Liberal Democrats: +14
🟡 SNP: -6
⚪ Reform UK: +4
🌻 Plaid Cymru: +1
🟢 Greens: +3However, their individual constituency estimates were noticeably worse than YouGov's.
You can see JL Partners' final MRP here: https://jlpartners.co.uk/final-jl-partners-srp-model-project-labour-winning-442-seats