#hpscommentary — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #hpscommentary, aggregated by home.social.
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#WarInUkraine #GeoPol #NortheastPassage
...point of the war:
No more oil sales and no more spare parts for the #Russia war machine and economy.
They have succeeded once, why not again?
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInUkraine #GeoPol #NortheastPassage... #Russian #Icebreaker vessel for the final leg of this merchant fleet to #China. --So far, far away from any #Ukrainian drones or the third #GulfWar.
This could be a big change, unless...
...#Ukraine were to pull of yet another #SiberianPearlHarbor 1), either destroying that convoy or severely ending its manoeuvrability...
Cutting the economic ties with #China is of utmost importance at this...
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInUkraine #GeoPol #China #Russia...as the #UnitedKingdom and #France of operating a kind of shadow fleet themselves."
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https://www.europesays.com/de/1235890/
However, #Russia has been anticipating this reaction at least since 2023, working on a new merchant route through the #Arctic, the #NortheastPassage.
It scored a big success in Oct. 2025, when the first containership used that route to reach the #UK.Presently, the probably largest convoy of merchant ships ever is awaiting a...
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#HPsCommentary
#DRAM price anomaly?Now, that I understand, you might be interested in my recent DRAM "case study" / historical comparison:
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*#DRAM price hikes are unwarranted--Party Like It's 1999*
(7/n)
... #Taiwan quake incident subsequently led to the elimination of a complete #Stockmarket segment (the #NeueMarkt,) I am afraid a global crash could be in the league of the 1929 #GreatDepression.
I haven't done an analysis, but the new core technology of the 20th century, #Electricity, could be yet another worthwhile case study...
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*#DRAM price hikes are unwarranted--Party Like It's 1999*
(5/n)
#DRAM price anomaly?
With a huge backlash now against #Datacenters (ex-China,) at least in the Western World, and energy supply being a strong limitational, factor, as #ElonMusk explained in his recent long #TheEconomist interview, I don't...
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#HPsCommentary
#Business #AI #Investment*#DRAM price hikes are unwarranted--Party Like It's 1999*
(1/n)
What could happen? --History does not repeat itself, but it surely does rhyme.
*Case Study: The 1999 #Taiwan Earthquake and the Global Silicon Aftershocks*
The September 21, 1999 Taiwan earthquake (magnitude 7.6) did initially trigger dramatic #DRAM price spikes.
Key Data Points:
64-Mbit DRAM (memory) spot-market prices reached $21.25 in N-#American markets following...
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(7/7)
...might still come either way, given that the #UN estimates that there will be 300mn to 2 billion #ClimateRefugees.
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(6/n)
... for anyone living today.
(There are no Stargates or Warp Drives.)So, if there is to be a future for humanity, there is only one way this might and well for all of us:
All the alleged perpetrators of war crimes or crimes against humanity (and hopefully soon #Ecocide) must be tried at the #Hague.
The alternatives all entail a breakdown of society as we know it. .which...
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(5/n)
... astronomer and #Nobel Prize laureate said in a long 2025 #ORF interview:
"...the way things are currently progressing, humanity will not even make it to #Mars [let alone to an extrasolar planet, as #Longtermists crave.]
Like me, he's completely opposed to a "Planet B" approach, meaning, if we wreck Earth 🌍, we can just settle some other planet.
This will not happen, with almost 100% certainty not... -
#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #Religion
#Israel #GeoPol(4/n)
...and now elsewhere,) but the global rise in #Antisemitism was also to be expected.
It can only be hoped, that they finally make the right decision in October when they will decide on the future of #Netanyahu in particular and #Israel's future in general--at the polls.
If human society is to survive, the return to the rules-based system implemented after #WWII is indispensable.
As a famous French...
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#HPsCommentary
#WarInGaza #Palestine #GeoPol(1/n)
As I was saying a year ago:
"👉This abominable deed will haunt them for generations to come👈 (probably less than the instigated murder of #Christ by the #Roman invasion force at the behest of the #Jerusalem elite, but still.)"
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/114999539193193621
In other words:
"There is a popular #Hebrew phrase which states, "maaseh avot siman lebanim", meaning 👉"the deeds of the fathers are portents for the children." 👈
It is used...
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@meduza_en
#HPsCommentary
#Russia #WarInUkraine #UNESCO
👉#PutinUnmasked by #CaveMonastery 🧵👈(1/n)
👉Putin retraces real spiritual leaders of his regime, the 1941 #Nazi ocupation force which blew up the #DormitionCathedral: 👈
#Putler's next #WarCrime 1) and probable #CrimeAgainstHumanity 2) unmask his utmost hypocrisy, even of his most central, *alleged* tenets:
#VladimirPutin's central 2021 essay, "*On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians*" 3)
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👉#LLMsAreIntelligent!👈
(12/n)
...might have become obvious by now from my introduction, that [shifting, somewhat ephemeral] 👉"intelligence" "threshold, " must have been crossed in 2025, at the very latest! (cf. footnotes 1) and 2))
👉*To be continued and amended
To keep up to date follow the hashtag: #LLMsAreIntelligent*👈
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👉#LLMsAreIntelligent!👈
(11/n)
... much of what we consider #Intelligence is inherently dialogic, hence social; it requires a theory of mind👈. Since the interior state of another being can only be understood through interaction, 👉no objective answer is possible to the question of when an “it” becomes a “who”👈 — but 👉for many people, #NeuralNets running on computers are likely to cross this threshold in the very near future.👈"
As...
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👉#LLMsAreIntelligent!👈
(11/n)
...👉#MachineLearning [#ML] is “just #Statistics”, hence that progress in AI is illusory with regard to this grander ambition.
Here I take the *contrary* view that #LLMs have a great deal to
teach us about the nature of language, understanding, intelligence, sociality, and, *personhood*👈.Specifically:
👉statistics do amount to understanding, in any falsifiable sense👈.Furthermore,...
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👉#LLMsAreIntelligent!👈
(10/n)
...article *precedes* Ms #Collier's by exactly 17 months--"#AI years" in a "standard person's" life.
Whereas Ms #Collier, *wrongly* IMO, claims that "*AI doesn't exist*," the known #AI expert who optimized the stabilization software of #US Navy aircraft carriers while interning as a *teenager* 3), takes a completely contrary stance more than 1y earlier:
"It’s sometimes claimed, though, that...
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👉#LLMsAreIntelligent!👈
(9/n)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704361504575552661462672160
.. .👉human-like...artificial general intelligence (AGI).👈"
So, back in 2021, Mr Agüera did not *yet* think that LLMs deserved to be considered #AGI|s, as he did only 4 years later, in the aforementioned #TheEconomist pod in 2025.
Writing on Dec 16, 2021, his...
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👉#LLMs are intelligent:
#ArtificialGeneralIntelligence has already happened! 👈(8/n)
After the preceding [to be added later] retrospection, let's look at some statements of #Google's CTO #Agüera y Arcas made already in December of *2021* in his article,
"Do large language models understand us?"Back then, he stated:
"...(#LLMs) represent a major advance in #ArtificialIntelligence (AI), and in particular toward the goal of...
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👉#LLMs are intelligent:
#ArtificialGeneralIntelligence has already happened! 👈(7/n)
[Placeholder 3 of 3]
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👉#LLMs are intelligent:
#ArtificialGeneralIntelligence has already happened! 👈(6/n)
[Placeholder 2 of 3]
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👉#LLMs are intelligent:
#ArtificialGeneralIntelligence has already happened! 👈(5/n)
[Placeholder 1 of 3]
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👉#LLMs are intelligent:
#ArtificialGeneralIntelligence has already happened! 👈(4/n)
... have to teach us about Artificial (General) Intelligence.
[Alas, post-editing is very limited on Mastodon, so for reasons of rethorics, I will leave three blank posts, as I currently have no viable form to share (some) of that information in detail.]
👉Thread already continues after the succeeding placeholders:
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👉#LLMs are intelligent:
#ArtificialGeneralIntelligence has already happened! 👈(3/n)
...developments.
What one #Astrophysicist #AngelaCollier said in in her #YT video on July 16, *2023*, is a) broadly outdated and b)...
from a mere *end-user* view, even if a quite erudite and intelligent one.I *had* to get this off my chest.
Let's have a closer look what these bleeding-edge #AI luminaries...
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👉#ArtificialGeneralIntelligence has already happened👈
(Blaise Agüera y Arcas, VP and CTO, #Google 1))👉#LLMsAreIntelligent! 👈(#GeoffreyHinton, #GodfatherOfAI
2))(1/n)
No, I'm not crazy, this is what two of the most brillant #AI researchers on earth said already in 2025 in two highly interesting, paywalled #TheEconomist interviews in its #Science + #Technology...
1)
#BlaiseAgüera y Arcas: why AI really is intelligent
https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2025/11/26/blaise-aguera-y-arcas-why-ai-really-is-intelligent -
(6/n)
👉10,000 #Starship rockets annually,👈 according to #ElonMusk's announcement in January 2026.
Oh, and they have already succeeded at reusing one half of the rocket 🚀 and ate working on making the second half reusable, too.
Now, is there currently that much demand for #Space cargo? No, not anywhere near it.
#Musk uses much of the current capacity to launch his #Starlink #Satellites, where he is not unimaginably far from achieving... @appassionato @mina @si_irini -
(5/n)
...his obsession of making humankind a #MultiplanitarySpecies to fruition, he must make unimaginable spacecraft payloads of money.
How does #Elon plan to do this unimaginable feat (at least for non-billionaires)?
The only way that this can be achieved is for #SpaceX to become some sort of "#GateKeeperToTheStars.
Well, look again:
👉#SpaceX is targeting to produce as high as...
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(4/n)
...#SpaceX 2/hide the gigantic, rising losses, + the fact that the #IPO dropped now, begs the question, if #Elmo doesn't know...(OFC #Musk *must* know, he is no #Kremlin recluse, from a tea with whom one might never rise again).
(I forgot:
For context, #PeterThiel's 👉#Palantir has the highest P/S ratio in the #S&P500 at 67x—roughly half of what #SpaceX is targeting👈, betting on abominations like an #AIGeneral and total surveillance.)
To...
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@appassionato
#HPsCommentary
#AIEthics
(3/n)...our forecast model,
#Elmo's #Grok is very much likely to have a public meltdown in the next quarter, possibly even as soon as the current one.Considering the *insane* valuation, he's asking for in #SpaceX's #IPO, a whopping 100-130 p/e ratio (for comparison:
Nvidia: ~21x (despite 65% annual growth)
Tesla: ~16x
Microsoft: ~10x
Amazon: ~3.5x
S&P 500 average: 2–3x)...and the fact that the "Grok company," #xAI, was recently merged with...