#gopcoviddeathcult — Public Fediverse posts

Last week a tweet from a supposedly left-leaning Ph.D went semi-viral which claimed that a) 800 Republican voters are currently dying of COVID per day & b) this is 5x the rate of Democratic voters. While the partisan COVID death gap is large, both of these claims are nonsense.

As one of the earliest & loudest voices calling attention to what I've termed the #GOPCovidDeathCult, it behooves me to call out this absurd exaggeration as well.

Meanwhile, in the House, of the 4 races left to call, the GOP is currently ahead in all 4. The Dems would have to end up winning by less than the number in the last column for me to believe the #GOPCovidDeathCult was the deciding factor.

Again, there's only 14 statewide races where a Democrat won (or is leading) by less than 50,000 votes. Of those, there's only one where the Dem margin is smaller than my estimate of the #GOPCovidDeathCult gap.

Even if you take into account the lower voter turnout (~110M vs. ~160M), that would still put the #GOPCovidDeathCult estimate at over ~2,800...and even if you only adjust for age (not for other factors), it would still be ~640.

📣 UPDATE: With fewer than 12,000 ballots left to count in Arizona, it looks like AZ Attorney General will be the only statewide race in the country decided by the #GOPCovidDeathCult💀.
https://acasignups.net/22/11/16/update-elephant-room-redux-gops-covid-death-cult-made-difference-exactly-one-statewide-race

🚨 UPDATE: Again, I don't know how many votes are left to count in Arizona, but at this point, unless her lead doubles or more, if Kris Mayes wins Attorney General, it was DEFINITELY the #GOPCovidDeathCult💀 which put her over the top.

As for HOUSE races, unless there's some last-minute updates to some of the 428 races already called, it looks like there's only 5 seats where the #GOPCovidDeathCult💀 could potentially have made a decisive difference. Dems would have to win each by just a few hundred votes.

3 of these are outside the margin; one is within it: AZ Atty. Gen., where Kris Mayes is up by 3,087 votes. That's within my ~4,100 #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 margin. If it holds, or she wins by a smaller margin, there's a very strong argument that it did make a decisive difference. 3/

I've gone through all 50 states & compiled every statewide race where the Democratic candidate either won or is leading by < 100,000 votes. Of those, there are only 4 where they're close to my #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 margin estimates (AZ AG, MN Auditor, NV Senate, WI SOS). 2/

📣 UPDATE: It looks like the #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 *did* make the difference...in exactly one statewide race:
https://acasignups.net/22/11/15/update-elephant-room-redux-gops-covid-death-cult-made-difference-exactly-one-statewide-race

📣 UPDATE: Dunno many votes are left to tabulate in Arizona, but it looks like the only statewide race in which the #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 ended up being a decisive factor in the outcome is ARIZONA ATTORNEY GENERAL.

I'll check other states to see if I missed anything else.

UPDATE: Annnnd with the Big Maricopa County vote drop, the GOP Superintendent candidate retakes the lead.

Dem Hobbs still up 20.5K, Dem Mayes now up just 4.2K...just barely outside of my #GOPCovidDeathCult 💀 range.

UPDATE: OK, as @[email protected] notes, there's a third statewide race which is already currently in the #GOPCovidDeathCult zone: Arizona School Superintendent. We'll see if that holds, however.

HOUSE RACES: Assuming all of the races *not* listed below don't see some dramatic turnaround, there's perhaps 8 House races left which could potentially end up falling within the #GOPCovidDeathCult range: AZ06, CA03, CA13, CA22, CA41, CA47, CO03, NY22.
https://acasignups.net/22/11/12/elephant-room-redux-part-2-did-gops-covid-death-cult-decide-any-house-races

If Katie Hobbs or Kris Mayes end up winning by less than ~4,100 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the #GOPCovidDeathCult was a decisive factor.

In NV, Catherine Cortez Masto looks like she's outside of Nevada's ~2,100 vote range.
https://acasignups.net/22/11/13/elephant-room-redux-part-1-did-gops-covid-death-cult-decide-any-statewide-races

📣 I know I've already posted these links several times, but I still keep seeing people asking "has anyone looked into whether the #GOPCovidDeathCult had a decisive impact on any midterm races, so once again, here you go:

STATEWIDE:
https://acasignups.net/22/11/13/elephant-room-redux-part-1-did-gops-covid-death-cult-decide-any-statewide-races

Again, if Lake or Hamadeh end up losing #AZGov or #AZAG by less than around ~4,100 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the #GOPCovidDeathCult was a decisive factor.
https://acasignups.net/22/11/11/elephant-room-redux-part-1-did-gops-covid-death-cult-decide-any-statewide-races

Just for the hell of it, I decided to run the numbers on two of the deepest red districts, where the #GOPCovidDeathCult also ran the strongest. I picked #AL04 and #KY05. 6/

At the state level, the only Senate seat which ended up being close to my #GOPCovidDeathCult estimate was Nevada, but it still looks like the winning margin will be outside my ~2,400 vote estimate. 4/

In short, there’s really only a dozen races where the GOP candidate *might* end up losing by less than the #GOPCovidDeathCult margin, which ranges from 0 - 600 votes in these 20 races (some of which have already been called since yesterday). 2/

I posted a long thread about this yesterday but here again is my analysis of the possible impact of the #GOPCovidDeathCult on House races: 1/

https://acasignups.net/22/11/12/elephant-room-redux-part-2-did-gops-covid-death-cult-decide-any-house-races

That leaves 14 House seats where the #GOPCovidDeathCult *could* potentially be a decisive factor in the outcome of the race:
#AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CO03, #CO08, #ME02, #NY22, #OR05, #OR06 & #WA03:

📣 UPDATE: OK, I've gone through and posted my #GOPCovidDeathCult💀 estimates for the 20 uncalled House races:
https://acasignups.net/22/11/12/elephant-room-redux-part-2-did-gops-covid-death-cult-decide-any-house-races