#fedliabilities — Public Fediverse posts

The Fed Liabilities Show That WWIII Will Be the Mother of All Wars

A large display near the US Capitol shows the $40 trillion national debt.

The US Federal Reserve liabilities on their balance sheet currently stands at a whopping $6.8 trillion dollars in nominal dollar terms. That number reflect the net amount of “money printing” credit creation, which really started at the GFC Depression of 2008.

In past posts I have produced a chart that plots the Fed Liabilities in terms of 1914 dollars since it started trading in 1914. See Chart 1 below. It has been very slightly updated adding a few months of data.

Chart 1: Federal Reserve Liabilities from inception (1914) to 2024 normalised to 1914 dollars (red data). Curve (2) is the best fit double exponential to red curve data. The sepia strips indicate recessions. Pink regions indicate world wars. Curve (1) is linear and amounts to about -0.7% increase per year.

Source: Liabilities data for 1914–2026 from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, statistical release H.4.1, Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks, via FRED; and M2 money supply data for 1959–2026 from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, statistical release H.6, Money Stock Measures, via FRED.

For a detail description go to World War III and Coming Depression.

Chart 2 has a closer look at the US M2 money stock (curve (1), green), the Fed liabilities in nominal dollars (curve (2), blue), and the normalised Fed liabilities using the M2 data.

Chart 2: Curve (1) is the US M2 money stock (green), curve (2) the Fed liabilities in nominal dollars (blue), and curve (3) the normalised Fed liabilities using the M2 data (red). The scale for curve (3) is the right side but in millions of 1914 dollars. Only M2 is in $billions. The data are from 2000 to the present shown without recessions.

As curve (2) on Chart 2 indicates the Fed started net QE at the end of 2025 and has been continuing that since then. However because they also have massively expanded the money supply according to M2 curve (1) when you normalise the dollars all to 1914 dollars that small QE is almost cancelled. You could pick dollars of any year; this normalisation is only done to reflect the dollars all have the same value.

In Chart 1 you can see three major periods on quantitative easing (QE), a euphemism for “money printing” or credit creation out of thin air. A rising curve indicates QE and a falling curve indicates quantitative tightening (QT) as the Fed extinguishes debt on its balance sheet. Those regions are also indicated with a pink background as periods of world war.

During times of war nation states accumulate massive national debts but because the US Fed Reserve currency is the world reserve currency the US Treasury sells debt to the Fed to get credit to fund the Military Industrial Complex. This we often characterise as cranking up the printing presses. Since massive QE is needed to fund those wars it is not surprising that we see this on these charts.

The three troubling periods are indicated on Table 1 and 2 below. I wanted to get a feel for how those periods of credit and therefore debt creation compared. If one side of the Fed balance sheet has a debt/liability it must be balanced on the other side with credit creation. That is the fiat creation that most people think is money.

For each period I integrated the curve of Fed Liabilities over the relevant time period and got what we might call a figure of merit in units of dollars x years. Then by dividing that number by the number of years in the period we get a measurement in units of dollars only. The result is an averaged liability over the period in question.

Table 1 shows the results for nominal dollars where no adjustments have been made for the fact that the dollars lose their value over time as the M2 money supply is expanded and dollars devalued.

Table 2 is similar but this time the curve used (from Chart 1) is denominated in 1914 dollars. All dollars are of equal value. But of course the value of the dollars was much larger in 1914 than they are now. But as the Tables show you can see the relative increase in the expansion of credit even in 1914 dollars.

For example, as shown in Table 2, if during the WWI period the credit created is represented by “1” then during the WWII period it was 1.73x that and currently up to the present it is 3.34x that amount. And that is for all dollars of the same value in the analysis.

But as shown in Table 1, if during the WWI period the credit created is represented by “1” then during the WWII period it was 7.9x that and currently up to the present it is 804.9x that amount. That is for nominal dollars over the past 26 years. They are not all equivalent in value. But that represents approximately a $3.5 trillion dollar average for liabilities on the Fed balance sheet. Of course it is currently about double that amount.

My figures for the liabilities shown in the 4th column of both Tables are an integrated average for the liabilities. For the latest period 2000 to 2026, curve (2) in Chart 2 is nominal dollar liabilities whereas curve (3) in Chart 2 is normalised 1914 dollar liabilities. The integration method smooths out all the valleys and peaks you see in the curves.

So what is the take-home message here? We are in for exciting times, depending on how you look at it. Nominal dollar liabilities are averaging $3.5 trillion which is about 805x the amount of credit that was needed for WWI. But the real comparison should be when equal dollars are compared and in that case 3.34x the WWI debt is so far needed and it looks like we are a long way from ending these current wars. In fact, they may be just starting to get going.

If that is the case, then WWIII will be the mother of all debt producing wars. It already has been. The powers that be will not stop because they are insolvent and “fiat money printing” is a way to keep inflating away the value of the debt. Dollar devaluation is real inflation and a real tax on just about everyone.

Related Reading

• World War III | Gold and Silver Prices Will Also Explode
• Why World War III?
• Wake Up World! World War III Has Begun!
• World War III Has Begun (at Least Against the Currency)
• War – Boom – Bust | What’s Next? The Digital Prison
• All Wars Are Banksters’ Wars

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At a minimum, please join as a Free Subscriber. It’ll cost you nothing. It may also help me beat the shadow banning of some posts.

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#creditCreation #dollarDevaluation #FEDLiabilities #FederalReserve #moneyPrinting #war #WorldWarIII

The Fed Liabilities Show That WWIII Will Be the Mother of All Wars

A large display near the US Capitol shows the $40 trillion national debt.

The US Federal Reserve liabilities on their balance sheet currently stands at a whopping $6.8 trillion dollars in nominal dollar terms. That number reflect the net amount of “money printing” credit creation, which really started at the GFC Depression of 2008.

In past posts I have produced a chart that plots the Fed Liabilities in terms of 1914 dollars since it started trading in 1914. See Chart 1 below. It has been very slightly updated adding a few months of data.

Chart 1: Federal Reserve Liabilities from inception (1914) to 2024 normalised to 1914 dollars (red data). Curve (2) is the best fit double exponential to red curve data. The sepia strips indicate recessions. Pink regions indicate world wars. Curve (1) is linear and amounts to about -0.7% increase per year.

Source: Liabilities data for 1914–2026 from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, statistical release H.4.1, Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks, via FRED; and M2 money supply data for 1959–2026 from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, statistical release H.6, Money Stock Measures, via FRED.

For a detail description go to World War III and Coming Depression.

Chart 2 has a closer look at the US M2 money stock (curve (1), green), the Fed liabilities in nominal dollars (curve (2), blue), and the normalised Fed liabilities using the M2 data.

Chart 2: Curve (1) is the US M2 money stock (green), curve (2) the Fed liabilities in nominal dollars (blue), and curve (3) the normalised Fed liabilities using the M2 data (red). The scale for curve (3) is the right side but in millions of 1914 dollars. Only M2 is in $billions. The data are from 2000 to the present shown without recessions.

As curve (2) on Chart 2 indicates the Fed started net QE at the end of 2025 and has been continuing that since then. However because they also have massively expanded the money supply according to M2 curve (1) when you normalise the dollars all to 1914 dollars that small QE is almost cancelled. You could pick dollars of any year; this normalisation is only done to reflect the dollars all have the same value.

In Chart 1 you can see three major periods on quantitative easing (QE), a euphemism for “money printing” or credit creation out of thin air. A rising curve indicates QE and a falling curve indicates quantitative tightening (QT) as the Fed extinguishes debt on its balance sheet. Those regions are also indicated with a pink background as periods of world war.

During times of war nation states accumulate massive national debts but because the US Fed Reserve currency is the world reserve currency the US Treasury sells debt to the Fed to get credit to fund the Military Industrial Complex. This we often characterise as cranking up the printing presses. Since massive QE is needed to fund those wars it is not surprising that we see this on these charts.

The three troubling periods are indicated on Table 1 and 2 below. I wanted to get a feel for how those periods of credit and therefore debt creation compared. If one side of the Fed balance sheet has a debt/liability it must be balanced on the other side with credit creation. That is the fiat creation that most people think is money.

For each period I integrated the curve of Fed Liabilities over the relevant time period and got what we might call a figure of merit in units of dollars x years. Then by dividing that number by the number of years in the period we get a measurement in units of dollars only. The result is an averaged liability over the period in question.

Table 1 shows the results for nominal dollars where no adjustments have been made for the fact that the dollars lose their value over time as the M2 money supply is expanded and dollars devalued.

Table 2 is similar but this time the curve used (from Chart 1) is denominated in 1914 dollars. All dollars are of equal value. But of course the value of the dollars was much larger in 1914 than they are now. But as the Tables show you can see the relative increase in the expansion of credit even in 1914 dollars.

For example, as shown in Table 2, if during the WWI period the credit created is represented by “1” then during the WWII period it was 1.73x that and currently up to the present it is 3.34x that amount. And that is for all dollars of the same value in the analysis.

But as shown in Table 1, if during the WWI period the credit created is represented by “1” then during the WWII period it was 7.9x that and currently up to the present it is 804.9x that amount. That is for nominal dollars over the past 26 years. They are not all equivalent in value. But that represents approximately a $3.5 trillion dollar average for liabilities on the Fed balance sheet. Of course it is currently about double that amount.

My figures for the liabilities shown in the 4th column of both Tables are an integrated average for the liabilities. For the latest period 2000 to 2026, curve (2) in Chart 2 is nominal dollar liabilities whereas curve (3) in Chart 2 is normalised 1914 dollar liabilities. The integration method smooths out all the valleys and peaks you see in the curves.

So what is the take-home message here? We are in for exciting times, depending on how you look at it. Nominal dollar liabilities are averaging $3.5 trillion which is about 805x the amount of credit that was needed for WWI. But the real comparison should be when equal dollars are compared and in that case 3.34x the WWI debt is so far needed and it looks like we are a long way from ending these current wars. In fact, they may be just starting to get going.

If that is the case, then WWIII will be the mother of all debt producing wars. It already has been. The powers that be will not stop because they are insolvent and “fiat money printing” is a way to keep inflating away the value of the debt. Dollar devaluation is real inflation and a real tax on just about everyone.

Related Reading

• World War III | Gold and Silver Prices Will Also Explode
• Why World War III?
• Wake Up World! World War III Has Begun!
• World War III Has Begun (at Least Against the Currency)
• War – Boom – Bust | What’s Next? The Digital Prison
• All Wars Are Banksters’ Wars

Free Subscribers

Subscribe to our Newsletters as a Free Subscriber and be notified by email. Just put your email address in the box at the bottom of your screen.

You’ll get an email each time we publish a new article. It is quick and easy to do and totally free. You only need do it once.

Premium Subscribers

Subscribe to our Newsletters as a Premium Subscribers at $5 USD/month or $30 USD/year (you choose). Cancel anytime.

Paid Premium Subscribers will get exclusive access to certain content I publish. That will only cost you a cup of coffee per month.

Also you’ll be able to download, for free, a PDF of my book Apocalypse Now and also a PDF of my book The Physics of Creation The Creator’s Ultimate Design for Earth.

You can download them from the link below.

click for Premium SubscriptionSubmitting form

This is how you can support my work. I have been publishing this website for 10 years now and up to 2024 I never asked for any support.

Press the button “Premium” on the front page to find a list of Premium content. Thanks so much to all supporters.

At a minimum, please join as a Free Subscriber. It’ll cost you nothing. It may also help me beat the shadow banning of some posts.

Comments Welcome Below

Rate this:

#creditCreation #dollarDevaluation #FEDLiabilities #FederalReserve #moneyPrinting #war #WorldWarIII