#fact-check — Public Fediverse posts
Live and recent posts from across the Fediverse tagged #fact-check, aggregated by home.social.
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https://www.europesays.com/people/190090/ #FactCheck:Fake letter attributed to Italian Embassy in India over alleged remarks by Rahul Gandhi #GiorgiaMeloni
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CW: U.S. politics, immigration, consumer prices, prescription drugs, political misinformation
# Trump’s Garden City Reality Check: Three Big Claims That Don’t Survive the Data
**GARDEN CITY, NEW YORK / CIVICOHUB — August 15, 2026**
President Donald Trump arrived at the Nassau County Police Academy on Friday with genuinely good news to sell: violent crime in the United States fell sharply in 2025.
CivicoHub has already examined that crime claim separately.
But Trump’s hour-long Garden City speech did not stay on crime.
He moved rapidly through the economy, immigration, prescription drugs and the record of the previous administration — repeatedly attaching dramatic numbers to real issues.
Some of the underlying developments are genuine.
Several of the numbers are not.
CivicoHub reviewed three of the clearest claims from the speech against government data and independent reporting.
The pattern is worth examining because modern political misinformation is often more effective when it begins with something true.
---
## I. “EGGS WERE FIVE TIMES HIGHER”
While discussing affordability when he returned to office in January 2025, Trump recalled reporters questioning him about egg prices.
He said eggs were **“up five times higher than they were just a year ago.”**
Egg prices absolutely had surged.
But not by anything close to five times.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs was:
**January 2024: $2.522**
**January 2025: $4.953**
That represents an increase of approximately **96%**.
In other words, prices had nearly doubled.
For eggs to have become five times as expensive, the January 2025 average would have needed to be roughly **$12.61 per dozen**.
It was $4.95.
The egg-price crisis itself was real. Average prices later climbed above $6 per dozen in March 2025 before declining sharply; by July 2026, the same BLS series stood at **$2.189 per dozen**.
That recovery does not make Trump’s historical description accurate.
A roughly 96% increase is severe.
It is not a fivefold increase.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE
Trump took a genuine affordability crisis and exaggerated its magnitude by several times.
---
## II. “WE NOW PAY THE LOWEST PRICE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD” FOR PRESCRIPTION DRUGS
Trump then pointed to falling prescription-drug prices as one of his administration’s major achievements.
There is real evidence of progress.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its prescription-drug price index fell **0.8% in July 2026**.
The Trump administration has also secured agreements with 17 major pharmaceutical manufacturers aimed at bringing certain U.S. prices into line with the lowest prices paid in comparable developed countries.
But Trump went much further.
In Garden City, he declared that Americans had moved from paying the highest prices to a position where **“now we pay the lowest price anywhere in the world for prescription drugs.”**
That sweeping claim is false.
Reuters conducted a direct comparison of drugs listed through TrumpRx with publicly available prices in the United Kingdom earlier this year.
For roughly **one-third of the 54 drugs examined**, the British price was still lower.
For several medicines, the U.K. price was **67% to 82% lower** than the TrumpRx price.
That does not mean Trump’s drug-pricing initiative has achieved nothing.
Some patients are receiving substantial discounts on specific medicines, and agreements with major drugmakers are intended to reduce prices further.
But “some medicines are substantially cheaper” is fundamentally different from:
**America now has the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
There is another piece of context.
Some Medicare drug-price reductions taking effect in 2026 originate from negotiations authorized under the **Inflation Reduction Act of 2022**. CMS negotiated the first ten Maximum Fair Prices before they took effect on January 1, 2026.
Current drug-price changes therefore cannot automatically be attributed to a single policy or a single president.
### FACT CHECK: ⚠️ MISLEADING / FALSE AS A UNIVERSAL CLAIM
Prescription-drug prices have fallen in important areas.
America demonstrably does **not** yet have the lowest price in the world for every prescription drug.
---
## III. THE “25 MILLION PEOPLE” BORDER CLAIM
Trump also returned to one of his most frequently repeated immigration statistics.
Speaking about the Biden administration, he said **25 million people** had been allowed to come into the United States, adding that this was the “real number.”
There is no official government dataset showing 25 million unauthorized immigrants entering and remaining in the United States during Biden’s presidency.
One reason these numbers are so easily distorted is that immigration statistics measure different things.
A **CBP encounter is not the same thing as one immigrant permanently entering the United States**.
Department of Homeland Security statistics include people apprehended after crossing between ports of entry as well as inadmissible people presenting themselves at legal ports of entry.
Encounter totals can also include repeat attempts by the same individual.
During periods when Title 42 permitted rapid expulsions, repeat crossings were particularly significant. Some people counted as encounters were expelled, returned, detained or otherwise removed rather than admitted into the country.
That makes it invalid to simply take a large border-enforcement number and describe every encounter as another person who successfully entered and remained in America.
FactCheck.org has examined Trump’s 25-million figure repeatedly and concluded that it is **vastly inflated**.
Its estimate placed the defensible total at roughly one-third of Trump’s figure even after including an estimate for migrants who evaded Border Patrol — so-called “gotaways.”
The exact number of people who entered unlawfully without being detected cannot, by definition, be known with absolute precision.
But uncertainty is not evidence for 25 million.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED
The Biden years saw historically high levels of migration and border encounters.
That is true.
But **25 million people entering and remaining in the United States is not supported by the available government data.**
---
# THE PATTERN: REAL PROBLEM → EXTREME NUMBER
What makes the Garden City speech useful as a misinformation case study is that Trump did not need to invent the underlying subjects.
Egg prices really soared.
Prescription drugs really are expensive in the United States, and some prices really are coming down.
The U.S.-Mexico border really experienced historically high migration during Biden’s presidency.
The distortion happens in the next step:
**Eggs nearly doubled → “five times higher.”**
**Some drug prices fell dramatically → “lowest anywhere in the world.”**
**Millions of border encounters → “25 million people came into our country.”**
Each begins with a recognizable reality.
Each ends with a claim significantly stronger than the evidence supports.
That distinction matters.
Political fact-checking should not deny genuine progress simply because a politician exaggerates it.
Nor should genuine progress be used as cover for inaccurate statistics.
---
# FACT CHECK & VERIFICATION SHEET
**Current as of August 15, 2026**
### CLAIM 1
**Egg prices were five times higher when Trump took office than one year earlier.**
**STATUS: FALSE**
BLS average-price data show Grade A large eggs rising from **$2.522 in January 2024 to $4.953 in January 2025** — approximately **96%**, not 400% or 500%.
---
### CLAIM 2
**Americans now pay the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
**STATUS: MISLEADING / FALSE AS STATED**
Some U.S. drug prices have fallen substantially, and Trump has secured significant pharmaceutical pricing agreements. But a Reuters comparison found roughly one-third of TrumpRx medicines examined were still cheaper in the United Kingdom.
---
### CLAIM 3
**25 million people entered the United States under Biden.**
**STATUS: FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED**
No official count supports the figure. Border encounters are enforcement events, not a count of unique people who entered and remained in the country, and they include repeat encounters and migrants who were expelled or removed. Independent analysis puts the plausible number dramatically below 25 million.
---
# SOURCES
**Roll Call / Factba.se — August 14, 2026**
Full transcript: Donald Trump remarks at the Nassau County Police Academy, Garden City, New York.**U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics**
Average Price Data — Grade A Large Eggs; Consumer Price Index, July 2026.**U.S. Department of Health and Human Services / CMS**
Most-Favored-Nation pricing policy and Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program documentation.**Reuters — March 18, 2026**
Comparison of TrumpRx prices with publicly available United Kingdom drug prices.**U.S. Customs and Border Protection / Department of Homeland Security**
Official definitions and border-encounter statistics.**FactCheck.org**
Analysis of Trump’s repeated 25-million immigration claim and DHS/CBP data.---
**Tags:** #CivicoHub #DonaldTrump #GardenCity #USPolitics #FactCheck #Misinformation #EggPrices #DrugPrices #TrumpRx #Immigration #Border #PoliticalClaims #Accountability #IndependentJournalism #InformationSovereignty #Fediverse
**CIVICOHUB — FACTS OVER NARRATIVE. CLAIMS REQUIRE EVIDENCE.**
-
# Trump’s Garden City Reality Check: Three Big Claims That Don’t Survive the Data
**GARDEN CITY, NEW YORK / CIVICOHUB — August 15, 2026**
President Donald Trump arrived at the Nassau County Police Academy on Friday with genuinely good news to sell: violent crime in the United States fell sharply in 2025.
CivicoHub has already examined that crime claim separately.
But Trump’s hour-long Garden City speech did not stay on crime.
He moved rapidly through the economy, immigration, prescription drugs and the record of the previous administration — repeatedly attaching dramatic numbers to real issues.
Some of the underlying developments are genuine.
Several of the numbers are not.
CivicoHub reviewed three of the clearest claims from the speech against government data and independent reporting.
The pattern is worth examining because modern political misinformation is often more effective when it begins with something true.
---
## I. “EGGS WERE FIVE TIMES HIGHER”
While discussing affordability when he returned to office in January 2025, Trump recalled reporters questioning him about egg prices.
He said eggs were **“up five times higher than they were just a year ago.”**
Egg prices absolutely had surged.
But not by anything close to five times.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs was:
**January 2024: $2.522**
**January 2025: $4.953**
That represents an increase of approximately **96%**.
In other words, prices had nearly doubled.
For eggs to have become five times as expensive, the January 2025 average would have needed to be roughly **$12.61 per dozen**.
It was $4.95.
The egg-price crisis itself was real. Average prices later climbed above $6 per dozen in March 2025 before declining sharply; by July 2026, the same BLS series stood at **$2.189 per dozen**.
That recovery does not make Trump’s historical description accurate.
A roughly 96% increase is severe.
It is not a fivefold increase.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE
Trump took a genuine affordability crisis and exaggerated its magnitude by several times.
---
## II. “WE NOW PAY THE LOWEST PRICE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD” FOR PRESCRIPTION DRUGS
Trump then pointed to falling prescription-drug prices as one of his administration’s major achievements.
There is real evidence of progress.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its prescription-drug price index fell **0.8% in July 2026**.
The Trump administration has also secured agreements with 17 major pharmaceutical manufacturers aimed at bringing certain U.S. prices into line with the lowest prices paid in comparable developed countries.
But Trump went much further.
In Garden City, he declared that Americans had moved from paying the highest prices to a position where **“now we pay the lowest price anywhere in the world for prescription drugs.”**
That sweeping claim is false.
Reuters conducted a direct comparison of drugs listed through TrumpRx with publicly available prices in the United Kingdom earlier this year.
For roughly **one-third of the 54 drugs examined**, the British price was still lower.
For several medicines, the U.K. price was **67% to 82% lower** than the TrumpRx price.
That does not mean Trump’s drug-pricing initiative has achieved nothing.
Some patients are receiving substantial discounts on specific medicines, and agreements with major drugmakers are intended to reduce prices further.
But “some medicines are substantially cheaper” is fundamentally different from:
**America now has the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
There is another piece of context.
Some Medicare drug-price reductions taking effect in 2026 originate from negotiations authorized under the **Inflation Reduction Act of 2022**. CMS negotiated the first ten Maximum Fair Prices before they took effect on January 1, 2026.
Current drug-price changes therefore cannot automatically be attributed to a single policy or a single president.
### FACT CHECK: ⚠️ MISLEADING / FALSE AS A UNIVERSAL CLAIM
Prescription-drug prices have fallen in important areas.
America demonstrably does **not** yet have the lowest price in the world for every prescription drug.
---
## III. THE “25 MILLION PEOPLE” BORDER CLAIM
Trump also returned to one of his most frequently repeated immigration statistics.
Speaking about the Biden administration, he said **25 million people** had been allowed to come into the United States, adding that this was the “real number.”
There is no official government dataset showing 25 million unauthorized immigrants entering and remaining in the United States during Biden’s presidency.
One reason these numbers are so easily distorted is that immigration statistics measure different things.
A **CBP encounter is not the same thing as one immigrant permanently entering the United States**.
Department of Homeland Security statistics include people apprehended after crossing between ports of entry as well as inadmissible people presenting themselves at legal ports of entry.
Encounter totals can also include repeat attempts by the same individual.
During periods when Title 42 permitted rapid expulsions, repeat crossings were particularly significant. Some people counted as encounters were expelled, returned, detained or otherwise removed rather than admitted into the country.
That makes it invalid to simply take a large border-enforcement number and describe every encounter as another person who successfully entered and remained in America.
FactCheck.org has examined Trump’s 25-million figure repeatedly and concluded that it is **vastly inflated**.
Its estimate placed the defensible total at roughly one-third of Trump’s figure even after including an estimate for migrants who evaded Border Patrol — so-called “gotaways.”
The exact number of people who entered unlawfully without being detected cannot, by definition, be known with absolute precision.
But uncertainty is not evidence for 25 million.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED
The Biden years saw historically high levels of migration and border encounters.
That is true.
But **25 million people entering and remaining in the United States is not supported by the available government data.**
---
# THE PATTERN: REAL PROBLEM → EXTREME NUMBER
What makes the Garden City speech useful as a misinformation case study is that Trump did not need to invent the underlying subjects.
Egg prices really soared.
Prescription drugs really are expensive in the United States, and some prices really are coming down.
The U.S.-Mexico border really experienced historically high migration during Biden’s presidency.
The distortion happens in the next step:
**Eggs nearly doubled → “five times higher.”**
**Some drug prices fell dramatically → “lowest anywhere in the world.”**
**Millions of border encounters → “25 million people came into our country.”**
Each begins with a recognizable reality.
Each ends with a claim significantly stronger than the evidence supports.
That distinction matters.
Political fact-checking should not deny genuine progress simply because a politician exaggerates it.
Nor should genuine progress be used as cover for inaccurate statistics.
---
# FACT CHECK & VERIFICATION SHEET
**Current as of August 15, 2026**
### CLAIM 1
**Egg prices were five times higher when Trump took office than one year earlier.**
**STATUS: FALSE**
BLS average-price data show Grade A large eggs rising from **$2.522 in January 2024 to $4.953 in January 2025** — approximately **96%**, not 400% or 500%.
---
### CLAIM 2
**Americans now pay the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
**STATUS: MISLEADING / FALSE AS STATED**
Some U.S. drug prices have fallen substantially, and Trump has secured significant pharmaceutical pricing agreements. But a Reuters comparison found roughly one-third of TrumpRx medicines examined were still cheaper in the United Kingdom.
---
### CLAIM 3
**25 million people entered the United States under Biden.**
**STATUS: FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED**
No official count supports the figure. Border encounters are enforcement events, not a count of unique people who entered and remained in the country, and they include repeat encounters and migrants who were expelled or removed. Independent analysis puts the plausible number dramatically below 25 million.
---
# SOURCES
**Roll Call / Factba.se — August 14, 2026**
Full transcript: Donald Trump remarks at the Nassau County Police Academy, Garden City, New York.**U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics**
Average Price Data — Grade A Large Eggs; Consumer Price Index, July 2026.**U.S. Department of Health and Human Services / CMS**
Most-Favored-Nation pricing policy and Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program documentation.**Reuters — March 18, 2026**
Comparison of TrumpRx prices with publicly available United Kingdom drug prices.**U.S. Customs and Border Protection / Department of Homeland Security**
Official definitions and border-encounter statistics.**FactCheck.org**
Analysis of Trump’s repeated 25-million immigration claim and DHS/CBP data.---
**Tags:** #CivicoHub #DonaldTrump #GardenCity #USPolitics #FactCheck #Misinformation #EggPrices #DrugPrices #TrumpRx #Immigration #Border #PoliticalClaims #Accountability #IndependentJournalism #InformationSovereignty #Fediverse
**CIVICOHUB — FACTS OVER NARRATIVE. CLAIMS REQUIRE EVIDENCE.**
-
# Trump’s Garden City Reality Check: Three Big Claims That Don’t Survive the Data
**GARDEN CITY, NEW YORK / CIVICOHUB — August 15, 2026**
President Donald Trump arrived at the Nassau County Police Academy on Friday with genuinely good news to sell: violent crime in the United States fell sharply in 2025.
CivicoHub has already examined that crime claim separately.
But Trump’s hour-long Garden City speech did not stay on crime.
He moved rapidly through the economy, immigration, prescription drugs and the record of the previous administration — repeatedly attaching dramatic numbers to real issues.
Some of the underlying developments are genuine.
Several of the numbers are not.
CivicoHub reviewed three of the clearest claims from the speech against government data and independent reporting.
The pattern is worth examining because modern political misinformation is often more effective when it begins with something true.
---
## I. “EGGS WERE FIVE TIMES HIGHER”
While discussing affordability when he returned to office in January 2025, Trump recalled reporters questioning him about egg prices.
He said eggs were **“up five times higher than they were just a year ago.”**
Egg prices absolutely had surged.
But not by anything close to five times.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs was:
**January 2024: $2.522**
**January 2025: $4.953**
That represents an increase of approximately **96%**.
In other words, prices had nearly doubled.
For eggs to have become five times as expensive, the January 2025 average would have needed to be roughly **$12.61 per dozen**.
It was $4.95.
The egg-price crisis itself was real. Average prices later climbed above $6 per dozen in March 2025 before declining sharply; by July 2026, the same BLS series stood at **$2.189 per dozen**.
That recovery does not make Trump’s historical description accurate.
A roughly 96% increase is severe.
It is not a fivefold increase.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE
Trump took a genuine affordability crisis and exaggerated its magnitude by several times.
---
## II. “WE NOW PAY THE LOWEST PRICE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD” FOR PRESCRIPTION DRUGS
Trump then pointed to falling prescription-drug prices as one of his administration’s major achievements.
There is real evidence of progress.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its prescription-drug price index fell **0.8% in July 2026**.
The Trump administration has also secured agreements with 17 major pharmaceutical manufacturers aimed at bringing certain U.S. prices into line with the lowest prices paid in comparable developed countries.
But Trump went much further.
In Garden City, he declared that Americans had moved from paying the highest prices to a position where **“now we pay the lowest price anywhere in the world for prescription drugs.”**
That sweeping claim is false.
Reuters conducted a direct comparison of drugs listed through TrumpRx with publicly available prices in the United Kingdom earlier this year.
For roughly **one-third of the 54 drugs examined**, the British price was still lower.
For several medicines, the U.K. price was **67% to 82% lower** than the TrumpRx price.
That does not mean Trump’s drug-pricing initiative has achieved nothing.
Some patients are receiving substantial discounts on specific medicines, and agreements with major drugmakers are intended to reduce prices further.
But “some medicines are substantially cheaper” is fundamentally different from:
**America now has the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
There is another piece of context.
Some Medicare drug-price reductions taking effect in 2026 originate from negotiations authorized under the **Inflation Reduction Act of 2022**. CMS negotiated the first ten Maximum Fair Prices before they took effect on January 1, 2026.
Current drug-price changes therefore cannot automatically be attributed to a single policy or a single president.
### FACT CHECK: ⚠️ MISLEADING / FALSE AS A UNIVERSAL CLAIM
Prescription-drug prices have fallen in important areas.
America demonstrably does **not** yet have the lowest price in the world for every prescription drug.
---
## III. THE “25 MILLION PEOPLE” BORDER CLAIM
Trump also returned to one of his most frequently repeated immigration statistics.
Speaking about the Biden administration, he said **25 million people** had been allowed to come into the United States, adding that this was the “real number.”
There is no official government dataset showing 25 million unauthorized immigrants entering and remaining in the United States during Biden’s presidency.
One reason these numbers are so easily distorted is that immigration statistics measure different things.
A **CBP encounter is not the same thing as one immigrant permanently entering the United States**.
Department of Homeland Security statistics include people apprehended after crossing between ports of entry as well as inadmissible people presenting themselves at legal ports of entry.
Encounter totals can also include repeat attempts by the same individual.
During periods when Title 42 permitted rapid expulsions, repeat crossings were particularly significant. Some people counted as encounters were expelled, returned, detained or otherwise removed rather than admitted into the country.
That makes it invalid to simply take a large border-enforcement number and describe every encounter as another person who successfully entered and remained in America.
FactCheck.org has examined Trump’s 25-million figure repeatedly and concluded that it is **vastly inflated**.
Its estimate placed the defensible total at roughly one-third of Trump’s figure even after including an estimate for migrants who evaded Border Patrol — so-called “gotaways.”
The exact number of people who entered unlawfully without being detected cannot, by definition, be known with absolute precision.
But uncertainty is not evidence for 25 million.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED
The Biden years saw historically high levels of migration and border encounters.
That is true.
But **25 million people entering and remaining in the United States is not supported by the available government data.**
---
# THE PATTERN: REAL PROBLEM → EXTREME NUMBER
What makes the Garden City speech useful as a misinformation case study is that Trump did not need to invent the underlying subjects.
Egg prices really soared.
Prescription drugs really are expensive in the United States, and some prices really are coming down.
The U.S.-Mexico border really experienced historically high migration during Biden’s presidency.
The distortion happens in the next step:
**Eggs nearly doubled → “five times higher.”**
**Some drug prices fell dramatically → “lowest anywhere in the world.”**
**Millions of border encounters → “25 million people came into our country.”**
Each begins with a recognizable reality.
Each ends with a claim significantly stronger than the evidence supports.
That distinction matters.
Political fact-checking should not deny genuine progress simply because a politician exaggerates it.
Nor should genuine progress be used as cover for inaccurate statistics.
---
# FACT CHECK & VERIFICATION SHEET
**Current as of August 15, 2026**
### CLAIM 1
**Egg prices were five times higher when Trump took office than one year earlier.**
**STATUS: FALSE**
BLS average-price data show Grade A large eggs rising from **$2.522 in January 2024 to $4.953 in January 2025** — approximately **96%**, not 400% or 500%.
---
### CLAIM 2
**Americans now pay the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
**STATUS: MISLEADING / FALSE AS STATED**
Some U.S. drug prices have fallen substantially, and Trump has secured significant pharmaceutical pricing agreements. But a Reuters comparison found roughly one-third of TrumpRx medicines examined were still cheaper in the United Kingdom.
---
### CLAIM 3
**25 million people entered the United States under Biden.**
**STATUS: FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED**
No official count supports the figure. Border encounters are enforcement events, not a count of unique people who entered and remained in the country, and they include repeat encounters and migrants who were expelled or removed. Independent analysis puts the plausible number dramatically below 25 million.
---
# SOURCES
**Roll Call / Factba.se — August 14, 2026**
Full transcript: Donald Trump remarks at the Nassau County Police Academy, Garden City, New York.**U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics**
Average Price Data — Grade A Large Eggs; Consumer Price Index, July 2026.**U.S. Department of Health and Human Services / CMS**
Most-Favored-Nation pricing policy and Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program documentation.**Reuters — March 18, 2026**
Comparison of TrumpRx prices with publicly available United Kingdom drug prices.**U.S. Customs and Border Protection / Department of Homeland Security**
Official definitions and border-encounter statistics.**FactCheck.org**
Analysis of Trump’s repeated 25-million immigration claim and DHS/CBP data.---
**Tags:** #CivicoHub #DonaldTrump #GardenCity #USPolitics #FactCheck #Misinformation #EggPrices #DrugPrices #TrumpRx #Immigration #Border #PoliticalClaims #Accountability #IndependentJournalism #InformationSovereignty #Fediverse
**CIVICOHUB — FACTS OVER NARRATIVE. CLAIMS REQUIRE EVIDENCE.**
-
# Trump’s Garden City Reality Check: Three Big Claims That Don’t Survive the Data
**GARDEN CITY, NEW YORK / CIVICOHUB — August 15, 2026**
President Donald Trump arrived at the Nassau County Police Academy on Friday with genuinely good news to sell: violent crime in the United States fell sharply in 2025.
CivicoHub has already examined that crime claim separately.
But Trump’s hour-long Garden City speech did not stay on crime.
He moved rapidly through the economy, immigration, prescription drugs and the record of the previous administration — repeatedly attaching dramatic numbers to real issues.
Some of the underlying developments are genuine.
Several of the numbers are not.
CivicoHub reviewed three of the clearest claims from the speech against government data and independent reporting.
The pattern is worth examining because modern political misinformation is often more effective when it begins with something true.
---
## I. “EGGS WERE FIVE TIMES HIGHER”
While discussing affordability when he returned to office in January 2025, Trump recalled reporters questioning him about egg prices.
He said eggs were **“up five times higher than they were just a year ago.”**
Egg prices absolutely had surged.
But not by anything close to five times.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs was:
**January 2024: $2.522**
**January 2025: $4.953**
That represents an increase of approximately **96%**.
In other words, prices had nearly doubled.
For eggs to have become five times as expensive, the January 2025 average would have needed to be roughly **$12.61 per dozen**.
It was $4.95.
The egg-price crisis itself was real. Average prices later climbed above $6 per dozen in March 2025 before declining sharply; by July 2026, the same BLS series stood at **$2.189 per dozen**.
That recovery does not make Trump’s historical description accurate.
A roughly 96% increase is severe.
It is not a fivefold increase.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE
Trump took a genuine affordability crisis and exaggerated its magnitude by several times.
---
## II. “WE NOW PAY THE LOWEST PRICE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD” FOR PRESCRIPTION DRUGS
Trump then pointed to falling prescription-drug prices as one of his administration’s major achievements.
There is real evidence of progress.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its prescription-drug price index fell **0.8% in July 2026**.
The Trump administration has also secured agreements with 17 major pharmaceutical manufacturers aimed at bringing certain U.S. prices into line with the lowest prices paid in comparable developed countries.
But Trump went much further.
In Garden City, he declared that Americans had moved from paying the highest prices to a position where **“now we pay the lowest price anywhere in the world for prescription drugs.”**
That sweeping claim is false.
Reuters conducted a direct comparison of drugs listed through TrumpRx with publicly available prices in the United Kingdom earlier this year.
For roughly **one-third of the 54 drugs examined**, the British price was still lower.
For several medicines, the U.K. price was **67% to 82% lower** than the TrumpRx price.
That does not mean Trump’s drug-pricing initiative has achieved nothing.
Some patients are receiving substantial discounts on specific medicines, and agreements with major drugmakers are intended to reduce prices further.
But “some medicines are substantially cheaper” is fundamentally different from:
**America now has the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
There is another piece of context.
Some Medicare drug-price reductions taking effect in 2026 originate from negotiations authorized under the **Inflation Reduction Act of 2022**. CMS negotiated the first ten Maximum Fair Prices before they took effect on January 1, 2026.
Current drug-price changes therefore cannot automatically be attributed to a single policy or a single president.
### FACT CHECK: ⚠️ MISLEADING / FALSE AS A UNIVERSAL CLAIM
Prescription-drug prices have fallen in important areas.
America demonstrably does **not** yet have the lowest price in the world for every prescription drug.
---
## III. THE “25 MILLION PEOPLE” BORDER CLAIM
Trump also returned to one of his most frequently repeated immigration statistics.
Speaking about the Biden administration, he said **25 million people** had been allowed to come into the United States, adding that this was the “real number.”
There is no official government dataset showing 25 million unauthorized immigrants entering and remaining in the United States during Biden’s presidency.
One reason these numbers are so easily distorted is that immigration statistics measure different things.
A **CBP encounter is not the same thing as one immigrant permanently entering the United States**.
Department of Homeland Security statistics include people apprehended after crossing between ports of entry as well as inadmissible people presenting themselves at legal ports of entry.
Encounter totals can also include repeat attempts by the same individual.
During periods when Title 42 permitted rapid expulsions, repeat crossings were particularly significant. Some people counted as encounters were expelled, returned, detained or otherwise removed rather than admitted into the country.
That makes it invalid to simply take a large border-enforcement number and describe every encounter as another person who successfully entered and remained in America.
FactCheck.org has examined Trump’s 25-million figure repeatedly and concluded that it is **vastly inflated**.
Its estimate placed the defensible total at roughly one-third of Trump’s figure even after including an estimate for migrants who evaded Border Patrol — so-called “gotaways.”
The exact number of people who entered unlawfully without being detected cannot, by definition, be known with absolute precision.
But uncertainty is not evidence for 25 million.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED
The Biden years saw historically high levels of migration and border encounters.
That is true.
But **25 million people entering and remaining in the United States is not supported by the available government data.**
---
# THE PATTERN: REAL PROBLEM → EXTREME NUMBER
What makes the Garden City speech useful as a misinformation case study is that Trump did not need to invent the underlying subjects.
Egg prices really soared.
Prescription drugs really are expensive in the United States, and some prices really are coming down.
The U.S.-Mexico border really experienced historically high migration during Biden’s presidency.
The distortion happens in the next step:
**Eggs nearly doubled → “five times higher.”**
**Some drug prices fell dramatically → “lowest anywhere in the world.”**
**Millions of border encounters → “25 million people came into our country.”**
Each begins with a recognizable reality.
Each ends with a claim significantly stronger than the evidence supports.
That distinction matters.
Political fact-checking should not deny genuine progress simply because a politician exaggerates it.
Nor should genuine progress be used as cover for inaccurate statistics.
---
# FACT CHECK & VERIFICATION SHEET
**Current as of August 15, 2026**
### CLAIM 1
**Egg prices were five times higher when Trump took office than one year earlier.**
**STATUS: FALSE**
BLS average-price data show Grade A large eggs rising from **$2.522 in January 2024 to $4.953 in January 2025** — approximately **96%**, not 400% or 500%.
---
### CLAIM 2
**Americans now pay the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
**STATUS: MISLEADING / FALSE AS STATED**
Some U.S. drug prices have fallen substantially, and Trump has secured significant pharmaceutical pricing agreements. But a Reuters comparison found roughly one-third of TrumpRx medicines examined were still cheaper in the United Kingdom.
---
### CLAIM 3
**25 million people entered the United States under Biden.**
**STATUS: FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED**
No official count supports the figure. Border encounters are enforcement events, not a count of unique people who entered and remained in the country, and they include repeat encounters and migrants who were expelled or removed. Independent analysis puts the plausible number dramatically below 25 million.
---
# SOURCES
**Roll Call / Factba.se — August 14, 2026**
Full transcript: Donald Trump remarks at the Nassau County Police Academy, Garden City, New York.**U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics**
Average Price Data — Grade A Large Eggs; Consumer Price Index, July 2026.**U.S. Department of Health and Human Services / CMS**
Most-Favored-Nation pricing policy and Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program documentation.**Reuters — March 18, 2026**
Comparison of TrumpRx prices with publicly available United Kingdom drug prices.**U.S. Customs and Border Protection / Department of Homeland Security**
Official definitions and border-encounter statistics.**FactCheck.org**
Analysis of Trump’s repeated 25-million immigration claim and DHS/CBP data.---
**Tags:** #CivicoHub #DonaldTrump #GardenCity #USPolitics #FactCheck #Misinformation #EggPrices #DrugPrices #TrumpRx #Immigration #Border #PoliticalClaims #Accountability #IndependentJournalism #InformationSovereignty #Fediverse
**CIVICOHUB — FACTS OVER NARRATIVE. CLAIMS REQUIRE EVIDENCE.**
-
# Trump’s Garden City Reality Check: Three Big Claims That Don’t Survive the Data
**GARDEN CITY, NEW YORK / CIVICOHUB — August 15, 2026**
President Donald Trump arrived at the Nassau County Police Academy on Friday with genuinely good news to sell: violent crime in the United States fell sharply in 2025.
CivicoHub has already examined that crime claim separately.
But Trump’s hour-long Garden City speech did not stay on crime.
He moved rapidly through the economy, immigration, prescription drugs and the record of the previous administration — repeatedly attaching dramatic numbers to real issues.
Some of the underlying developments are genuine.
Several of the numbers are not.
CivicoHub reviewed three of the clearest claims from the speech against government data and independent reporting.
The pattern is worth examining because modern political misinformation is often more effective when it begins with something true.
---
## I. “EGGS WERE FIVE TIMES HIGHER”
While discussing affordability when he returned to office in January 2025, Trump recalled reporters questioning him about egg prices.
He said eggs were **“up five times higher than they were just a year ago.”**
Egg prices absolutely had surged.
But not by anything close to five times.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs was:
**January 2024: $2.522**
**January 2025: $4.953**
That represents an increase of approximately **96%**.
In other words, prices had nearly doubled.
For eggs to have become five times as expensive, the January 2025 average would have needed to be roughly **$12.61 per dozen**.
It was $4.95.
The egg-price crisis itself was real. Average prices later climbed above $6 per dozen in March 2025 before declining sharply; by July 2026, the same BLS series stood at **$2.189 per dozen**.
That recovery does not make Trump’s historical description accurate.
A roughly 96% increase is severe.
It is not a fivefold increase.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE
Trump took a genuine affordability crisis and exaggerated its magnitude by several times.
---
## II. “WE NOW PAY THE LOWEST PRICE ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD” FOR PRESCRIPTION DRUGS
Trump then pointed to falling prescription-drug prices as one of his administration’s major achievements.
There is real evidence of progress.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its prescription-drug price index fell **0.8% in July 2026**.
The Trump administration has also secured agreements with 17 major pharmaceutical manufacturers aimed at bringing certain U.S. prices into line with the lowest prices paid in comparable developed countries.
But Trump went much further.
In Garden City, he declared that Americans had moved from paying the highest prices to a position where **“now we pay the lowest price anywhere in the world for prescription drugs.”**
That sweeping claim is false.
Reuters conducted a direct comparison of drugs listed through TrumpRx with publicly available prices in the United Kingdom earlier this year.
For roughly **one-third of the 54 drugs examined**, the British price was still lower.
For several medicines, the U.K. price was **67% to 82% lower** than the TrumpRx price.
That does not mean Trump’s drug-pricing initiative has achieved nothing.
Some patients are receiving substantial discounts on specific medicines, and agreements with major drugmakers are intended to reduce prices further.
But “some medicines are substantially cheaper” is fundamentally different from:
**America now has the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
There is another piece of context.
Some Medicare drug-price reductions taking effect in 2026 originate from negotiations authorized under the **Inflation Reduction Act of 2022**. CMS negotiated the first ten Maximum Fair Prices before they took effect on January 1, 2026.
Current drug-price changes therefore cannot automatically be attributed to a single policy or a single president.
### FACT CHECK: ⚠️ MISLEADING / FALSE AS A UNIVERSAL CLAIM
Prescription-drug prices have fallen in important areas.
America demonstrably does **not** yet have the lowest price in the world for every prescription drug.
---
## III. THE “25 MILLION PEOPLE” BORDER CLAIM
Trump also returned to one of his most frequently repeated immigration statistics.
Speaking about the Biden administration, he said **25 million people** had been allowed to come into the United States, adding that this was the “real number.”
There is no official government dataset showing 25 million unauthorized immigrants entering and remaining in the United States during Biden’s presidency.
One reason these numbers are so easily distorted is that immigration statistics measure different things.
A **CBP encounter is not the same thing as one immigrant permanently entering the United States**.
Department of Homeland Security statistics include people apprehended after crossing between ports of entry as well as inadmissible people presenting themselves at legal ports of entry.
Encounter totals can also include repeat attempts by the same individual.
During periods when Title 42 permitted rapid expulsions, repeat crossings were particularly significant. Some people counted as encounters were expelled, returned, detained or otherwise removed rather than admitted into the country.
That makes it invalid to simply take a large border-enforcement number and describe every encounter as another person who successfully entered and remained in America.
FactCheck.org has examined Trump’s 25-million figure repeatedly and concluded that it is **vastly inflated**.
Its estimate placed the defensible total at roughly one-third of Trump’s figure even after including an estimate for migrants who evaded Border Patrol — so-called “gotaways.”
The exact number of people who entered unlawfully without being detected cannot, by definition, be known with absolute precision.
But uncertainty is not evidence for 25 million.
### FACT CHECK: ❌ FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED
The Biden years saw historically high levels of migration and border encounters.
That is true.
But **25 million people entering and remaining in the United States is not supported by the available government data.**
---
# THE PATTERN: REAL PROBLEM → EXTREME NUMBER
What makes the Garden City speech useful as a misinformation case study is that Trump did not need to invent the underlying subjects.
Egg prices really soared.
Prescription drugs really are expensive in the United States, and some prices really are coming down.
The U.S.-Mexico border really experienced historically high migration during Biden’s presidency.
The distortion happens in the next step:
**Eggs nearly doubled → “five times higher.”**
**Some drug prices fell dramatically → “lowest anywhere in the world.”**
**Millions of border encounters → “25 million people came into our country.”**
Each begins with a recognizable reality.
Each ends with a claim significantly stronger than the evidence supports.
That distinction matters.
Political fact-checking should not deny genuine progress simply because a politician exaggerates it.
Nor should genuine progress be used as cover for inaccurate statistics.
---
# FACT CHECK & VERIFICATION SHEET
**Current as of August 15, 2026**
### CLAIM 1
**Egg prices were five times higher when Trump took office than one year earlier.**
**STATUS: FALSE**
BLS average-price data show Grade A large eggs rising from **$2.522 in January 2024 to $4.953 in January 2025** — approximately **96%**, not 400% or 500%.
---
### CLAIM 2
**Americans now pay the lowest prescription-drug prices anywhere in the world.**
**STATUS: MISLEADING / FALSE AS STATED**
Some U.S. drug prices have fallen substantially, and Trump has secured significant pharmaceutical pricing agreements. But a Reuters comparison found roughly one-third of TrumpRx medicines examined were still cheaper in the United Kingdom.
---
### CLAIM 3
**25 million people entered the United States under Biden.**
**STATUS: FALSE / VASTLY INFLATED**
No official count supports the figure. Border encounters are enforcement events, not a count of unique people who entered and remained in the country, and they include repeat encounters and migrants who were expelled or removed. Independent analysis puts the plausible number dramatically below 25 million.
---
# SOURCES
**Roll Call / Factba.se — August 14, 2026**
Full transcript: Donald Trump remarks at the Nassau County Police Academy, Garden City, New York.**U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics**
Average Price Data — Grade A Large Eggs; Consumer Price Index, July 2026.**U.S. Department of Health and Human Services / CMS**
Most-Favored-Nation pricing policy and Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program documentation.**Reuters — March 18, 2026**
Comparison of TrumpRx prices with publicly available United Kingdom drug prices.**U.S. Customs and Border Protection / Department of Homeland Security**
Official definitions and border-encounter statistics.**FactCheck.org**
Analysis of Trump’s repeated 25-million immigration claim and DHS/CBP data.---
**Tags:** #CivicoHub #DonaldTrump #GardenCity #USPolitics #FactCheck #Misinformation #EggPrices #DrugPrices #TrumpRx #Immigration #Border #PoliticalClaims #Accountability #IndependentJournalism #InformationSovereignty #Fediverse
**CIVICOHUB — FACTS OVER NARRATIVE. CLAIMS REQUIRE EVIDENCE.**
-
Crime Is Falling — But Trump’s Deportation Claim Goes Beyond the Evidence
GARDEN CITY, NEW YORK / CIVICOHUB — August 15, 2026
President Donald Trump is taking credit for a historic decline in violent crime across the United States — and is presenting his aggressive immigration and mass-deportation agenda as an important reason why.
The crime decline is real.
The claimed explanation is not supported by the available evidence.
Speaking Friday at the Nassau County Police Academy in Garden City, New York, Trump promoted newly released FBI crime statistics as proof that his law-and-order agenda is working. While discussing his immigration crackdown, Trump declared: “We’re getting them the hell out.” Reuters reported that Trump went on to argue, without evidence, that his mass-deportation campaign was a major contributor to the national crime decline.
That distinction matters.
The FBI can tell us what happened to reported crime.
Its statistics do not establish why it happened.
I. The Crime Drop Is Real — And Historically Large
The FBI’s preliminary 2025 national estimates show:
Violent crime: ↓ 9.3%
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter: ↓ 18.1%
Robbery: ↓ 18.5%
Rape: ↓ 7.6%
Aggravated assault: ↓ 7.2%
Property crime: ↓ 12.4%The estimates are based on submissions from more than 17,000 law-enforcement agencies covering approximately 96% of the U.S. population. The FBI stresses that the figures remain preliminary and may change before the final 2025 report is released.
FBI Director Kash Patel described the figures as the largest decrease in violent crime and murder since 1937. Reuters separately described the violent-crime reduction as the largest year-to-year decline on record.
So the underlying statistic Trump is celebrating is genuine.
But that still does not prove his explanation for it.
II. The Decline Started Before Trump Returned to Office
The timeline presents an immediate problem for any claim that Trump’s second-term policies created the national decline.
Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.
But FBI data show violent crime had already been falling for years.
2023
Violent crime fell 3.0% compared with 2022.
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter fell 11.6%.
2024
Violent crime fell another 4.5%.
Murder fell 14.9%.
Robbery fell 8.9%.
2025
Violent crime then fell an estimated 9.3%, with murder down 18.1% and robbery down 18.5%.
The decline clearly accelerated in 2025.
But it did not begin in 2025.
That does not prove Trump administration policies had no effect. It does, however, make it misleading to present the nationwide decline as though it appeared only after his immigration crackdown began.
III. Falling Crime + Deportations Does Not Equal Proven Causation
Trump’s argument relies heavily on two things occurring at the same time:
His administration dramatically intensified immigration enforcement.
Crime continued to fall.
But correlation is not causation.
The FBI’s crime report contains no analysis demonstrating that deporting undocumented immigrants caused the 9.3% decline in violent crime.
Reuters reports that the reduction has occurred in large and small cities, in jurisdictions emphasizing aggressive policing and in jurisdictions pursuing progressive police reforms, and in places with both high and low concentrations of police officers.
Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, told Reuters that there is no single simple explanation for the trend, describing a decline occurring broadly across the United States and internationally.
That is important because a causal claim requires more than timing.
To demonstrate that mass deportation caused a national reduction in violent crime, researchers would need evidence isolating the effect of deportations from policing strategies, demographic changes, economic conditions, local violence-prevention programs, incarceration patterns, firearm trends and other variables.
Trump has not presented such evidence.
IV. Trump Is Turning a Real Statistic Into an Unsupported Political Conclusion
This is where the misinformation problem becomes subtle.
Trump is not inventing the FBI numbers.
Violent crime really did fall.
Murder really did fall.
And the 2025 decline really was unusually large.
What is unsupported is the leap from:
“Crime fell while I was president”
to:
“My deportation campaign was a major reason crime fell.”
Those are not the same claim.
The first is an observation about timing.
The second is a claim of causation.
Reuters explicitly reports that Trump made the deportation connection without evidence, while the FBI’s own historical data show the decline predates his return to office.
The White House nevertheless presented the figures as proof of Trump’s success. Spokesperson Lauren Bis told Reuters that Trump had promised to make America safer and that the new data proved he had done so.
Politically, that is a powerful message.
Statistically, it proves much less.
V. What We Can Actually Say
Based on the evidence currently available:
FACT: Violent crime dropped sharply in 2025.
FACT: The 2025 decline was larger than the declines recorded in 2023 and 2024.
FACT: Violent crime and murder were already falling substantially before Trump returned to office.
FACT: The FBI report does not identify mass deportation as the cause of the decline.
NOT ESTABLISHED: That Trump’s deportation campaign was a major cause of the nationwide crime reduction.
A president is entitled to argue that his policies are working.
But when that argument is presented as a factual explanation for a national trend, it requires evidence.
In this case, that evidence has not been demonstrated.
Fact Check & Verification Sheet
Current as of August 15, 2026
1. U.S. violent crime fell 9.3% in 2025
STATUS: TRUE
The FBI’s preliminary 2025 figures estimate that violent crime declined 9.3% compared with 2024.
Murder fell 18.1%, robbery 18.5%, rape 7.6%, aggravated assault 7.2%, and property crime 12.4%.
2. Trump’s mass-deportation campaign was a major cause of the crime decline
STATUS: UNSUPPORTED
Trump argued that his deportation campaign contributed significantly to the decline, but Reuters reports that he presented no evidence establishing that causal relationship.
The FBI statistics measure changes in reported crime. They do not identify deportations as the cause.
3. The national crime decline began after Trump returned to office
STATUS: FALSE
FBI data show:
2023 violent crime: ↓ 3.0%
2024 violent crime: ↓ 4.5%
2025 violent crime: ↓ 9.3%Murder also fell 11.6% in 2023 and 14.9% in 2024, before Trump began his second term.
4. The 2025 decline was historically large
STATUS: TRUE
The FBI describes its preliminary 2025 figures as showing the largest decrease in violent crime and murder since 1937. The bureau also cautions that the figures are preliminary and subject to revision.
5. The FBI data prove Trump’s immigration policies made America safer
STATUS: MISLEADING
The figures establish that reported crime fell during 2025.
They do not isolate the effect of Trump’s immigration policies or demonstrate that deportations produced the national decline. Because the downward trend began before Trump returned to office and appears across jurisdictions using very different public-safety strategies, the data alone cannot support that causal conclusion.
Sources
Reuters — August 14, 2026
Trump touts drop in US crime rates with an eye on midterms
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-tout-drop-us-crime-rates-with-an-eye-midterms-2026-08-14/Federal Bureau of Investigation — May 13, 2026
FBI Releases Historic Early Look at Annual Crime Data
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-historic-early-look-at-annual-crime-dataFederal Bureau of Investigation — August 5, 2025
FBI Releases 2024 Reported Crimes in the Nation Statistics
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-reported-crimes-in-the-nation-statisticsFederal Bureau of Investigation — September 23, 2024
FBI Releases 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2023-crime-in-the-nation-statisticsTags: #CivicoHub #DonaldTrump #USPolitics #FactCheck #FBI #Crime #Immigration #Deportation #Misinformation #PoliticalClaims #Accountability #IndependentJournalism #InformationSovereignty #Fediverse
CIVICOHUB — FACTS BEFORE NARRATIVE. CLAIMS REQUIRE EVIDENCE.
-
The Cost of War at the Pump: Trump Tells Americans to Accept Higher Gas Prices
**GARDEN CITY, NEW YORK / CIVICOHUB — August 15, 2026**
President Donald Trump is now openly asking Americans to accept higher gasoline prices as part of the economic cost of the ongoing war with Iran.
Speaking at a political rally in Garden City, New York, on Friday, Trump told supporters that paying **“a tiny little bit more for your gasoline”** was worth the cost of preventing what he described as **“a very evil country”** from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
The statement comes at a politically difficult moment for the White House.
Trump campaigned on promises to reduce energy costs. Yet according to data cited by Reuters from the American Automobile Association, the average U.S. price for a gallon of regular gasoline was approximately **$4.08 on Friday — around 29% higher than one year ago**.
Official inflation data show the same broader trend.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week that the gasoline price index was **24.6% higher in July 2026 than in July 2025**, while energy prices overall were up **14.7%** over the same twelve-month period.
There is an important qualification: gasoline prices actually fell **2.9% during July itself** on a seasonally adjusted basis. The current problem is therefore not that prices have risen continuously every month, but that they remain dramatically higher than they were a year ago.
## I. “A Tiny Little Bit More”
Trump's wording places the economic burden of the Iran conflict into a broader national-security argument.
His position is straightforward: Americans may be paying more at the pump, but that additional cost is justified if U.S. military pressure prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Whether that strategic argument is correct is a political and military judgment.
The size of the price increase, however, can be measured.
A roughly 29% year-on-year increase in the average retail gasoline price is significantly larger than the phrase “a tiny little bit more” might suggest.
For context, the difference between $3.16 and $4.08 per gallon is approximately **92 cents per gallon**.
A motorist purchasing 50 gallons of gasoline per month would therefore spend roughly **$46 more per month** at those respective prices.
That calculation does not prove whether the war is justified. It simply illustrates the household impact of the documented price difference.
## II. Hormuz Remains at the Center of the Energy Crisis
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the central pressure points in the conflict.
Before the war, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil moved through the strategic waterway.
Traffic has since collapsed.
According to ship-tracking data from Kpler reported by Reuters, only **two vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday**, with **no visible crude-oil shipments** among them.
Kpler cautioned that vessels operating with their tracking transponders switched off may not appear in those figures. Even with that limitation, current traffic remains far below the more than **130 ships per day** that crossed the strait before the war.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration also identifies reduced Hormuz shipments as a major factor keeping oil prices elevated.
In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA states that reduced oil shipments through the strait are drawing down global inventories and keeping crude prices near early-August levels.
The agency now forecasts Brent crude to average approximately **$85 per barrel during the third quarter of 2026** — around $11 per barrel higher than its previous monthly forecast.
The EIA expects prices to begin falling only as traffic through Hormuz increases and shut-in production gradually returns.
## III. Oil Markets React to the Continuing Conflict
Markets are already reflecting the renewed uncertainty.
Brent crude rose more than $1 on Friday to approximately **$88.52 per barrel**, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose to roughly **$82.40 per barrel**.
Brent was heading for a weekly increase of about 6%, with WTI up approximately 5.4%.
The pressure is not caused by one single factor. Oil prices respond to inventories, production, global demand, refinery activity, sanctions, shipping risks and geopolitical instability.
But current evidence from both market reporting and the EIA shows that disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is a significant component of the present price environment.
## IV. No Breakthrough Toward Peace
The economic consequences are unfolding while negotiations remain stalled.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran had not decided to resume talks with Washington, while Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi insisted that Tehran would continue enforcing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz until the United States changed its position.
A tentative agreement reached in June has effectively collapsed, and Reuters reported no sign on Friday that either side was moving toward ending the conflict.
The confrontation has also become increasingly dangerous for commercial shipping.
The United Arab Emirates' Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said two of its vessels were attacked while transiting the strait on Thursday evening, while another vessel reportedly came under attack on Friday.
The result is a geopolitical conflict whose effects are now increasingly visible far beyond the battlefield.
For American households, one of the clearest consequences is appearing at the gas pump.
Trump is no longer denying that cost.
He is asking Americans to accept it.
---
# Fact Check & Verification Sheet
**Current as of August 15, 2026**
## 1. Trump told Americans they should accept higher gasoline prices
**Status: TRUE**
**Claim:** President Trump said Americans should tolerate paying somewhat more for gasoline because of the conflict with Iran.
**Verification:** During his August 14 political rally in Garden City, Trump said paying **“a tiny little bit more for your gasoline”** was worth the cost of ensuring Iran did not obtain a nuclear weapon.
Reuters directly reported the statement from the event. The White House also lists presidential remarks delivered on August 14 in its official archive.
---
## 2. U.S. gasoline is approximately 29% more expensive than a year ago
**Status: TRUE**
**Claim:** Average U.S. gasoline prices are roughly 29% higher year-on-year.
**Verification:** Reuters, citing the American Automobile Association, reported an average U.S. gasoline price of approximately **$4.08 per gallon on August 14**, around **29% above the level one year earlier**.
Separate federal CPI data support the broader conclusion: the BLS gasoline price index was **24.6% higher in July 2026 than in July 2025**. The two figures use different methodologies and therefore should not be expected to match exactly.
---
## 3. Americans are paying only “a tiny little bit more”
**Status: MISLEADING / SUBJECTIVE**
**Claim:** Trump's wording characterizes the increase in gasoline costs as relatively minor.
**Verification:** The word “tiny” is subjective, so it cannot be fact-checked as a precise mathematical statement.
However, the measurable increase is substantial: approximately **29% in AAA retail-price data** and **24.6% in the BLS gasoline index** compared with a year ago.
The statement therefore accurately acknowledges that prices are higher, but minimizes the scale of the documented increase.
---
## 4. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is contributing to high oil prices
**Status: TRUE**
**Claim:** Restricted shipping through Hormuz is helping keep oil and fuel prices elevated.
**Verification:** The U.S. Energy Information Administration explicitly states that reduced oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are lowering global oil inventories and keeping crude prices elevated.
The EIA currently forecasts Brent crude at approximately **$85 per barrel in Q3 2026**.
Reuters also reported that only two vessels passed through the strait on Friday and that crude-oil futures rose amid continued shipping disruption and tanker attacks.
---
## 5. Higher gasoline prices are “necessary” to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon
**Status: NOT FACT-CHECKABLE AS A FACT**
**Claim:** Paying more for gasoline is a necessary cost of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
**Verification:** This is Trump's strategic justification for the war rather than a directly measurable factual claim.
It is verifiable that the conflict and the disruption of oil traffic through Hormuz are contributing to higher energy prices.
It cannot currently be established as an objective fact that those higher consumer prices are *necessary*, or that the military campaign will ultimately prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
That conclusion depends on future events and strategic judgments that cannot be proven from current economic data.
---
# Sources
**Reuters — August 14/15, 2026**
*Iran defiant on strait as Trump tells Americans to accept high gas prices*
Primary reporting on Trump's remarks, gasoline prices, Iran's position, shipping traffic and tanker attacks.**Reuters — August 14, 2026**
*Oil climbs over $1 on tanker attacks, no progress on peace*
Market data and analysis of Brent/WTI prices and Hormuz-related supply risk.**U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — July 2026 CPI**
Official U.S. inflation statistics showing gasoline **+24.6% year-on-year**, energy **+14.7%**, and headline CPI **+3.4%**.**U.S. Energy Information Administration — August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook**
Official analysis linking reduced Hormuz oil shipments to lower inventories and elevated crude prices; Brent forecast around **$85/barrel in Q3 2026**.**The White House — August 14, 2026**
Official archive confirming presidential remarks delivered on August 14.---
**Tags:** #CivicoHub #USPolitics #DonaldTrump #Iran #IranWar #GasPrices #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #Energy #FactCheck #Accountability #IndependentJournalism #InformationSovereignty #Fediverse
**CIVICOHUB — Independent. Transparent. Accountable.**
-
Fact-Checking White House Vaccination Claims. The White House’s new executive order makes several claims and recommendations that don’t match the scientific evidence and conflict with good medical practice. #Vaccines #ChildHealth #MedicalNews #FactCheck #PublicHealth
https://www.instagram.com/p/DcB183lherA/ -
Fact-Checking White House Vaccination Claims. The White House’s new executive order makes several claims and recommendations that don’t match the scientific evidence and conflict with good medical practice. #Vaccines #ChildHealth #MedicalNews #FactCheck #PublicHealth
https://www.instagram.com/p/DcB183lherA/ -
Fact-Checking White House Vaccination Claims. The White House’s new executive order makes several claims and recommendations that don’t match the scientific evidence and conflict with good medical practice. #Vaccines #ChildHealth #MedicalNews #FactCheck #PublicHealth
https://www.instagram.com/p/DcB183lherA/ -
Fact-Checking White House Vaccination Claims. The White House’s new executive order makes several claims and recommendations that don’t match the scientific evidence and conflict with good medical practice. #Vaccines #ChildHealth #MedicalNews #FactCheck #PublicHealth
https://www.instagram.com/p/DcB183lherA/ -
Fact-Checking White House Vaccination Claims. The White House’s new executive order makes several claims and recommendations that don’t match the scientific evidence and conflict with good medical practice. #Vaccines #ChildHealth #MedicalNews #FactCheck #PublicHealth
https://www.instagram.com/p/DcB183lherA/ -
Science Explainer: Where’s the “$4.5 billion trans industry” the ads keep warning about?
A $10M AI ad says a predatory industry sweeps kids into surgery. The data disagree: about one US child a day starts gender-affirming meds, none under 12 on hormones, surgery on pre-teens ~zero. Meanwhile 40+ hospitals cut the care since 2025 and a 30-yr LA clinic closed.
Not a booming industry. A field in retreat.
-
Science Explainer: Where’s the “$4.5 billion trans industry” the ads keep warning about?
A $10M AI ad says a predatory industry sweeps kids into surgery. The data disagree: about one US child a day starts gender-affirming meds, none under 12 on hormones, surgery on pre-teens ~zero. Meanwhile 40+ hospitals cut the care since 2025 and a 30-yr LA clinic closed.
Not a booming industry. A field in retreat.
-
Science Explainer: Where’s the “$4.5 billion trans industry” the ads keep warning about?
A $10M AI ad says a predatory industry sweeps kids into surgery. The data disagree: about one US child a day starts gender-affirming meds, none under 12 on hormones, surgery on pre-teens ~zero. Meanwhile 40+ hospitals cut the care since 2025 and a 30-yr LA clinic closed.
Not a booming industry. A field in retreat.
-
Science Explainer: Where’s the “$4.5 billion trans industry” the ads keep warning about?
A $10M AI ad says a predatory industry sweeps kids into surgery. The data disagree: about one US child a day starts gender-affirming meds, none under 12 on hormones, surgery on pre-teens ~zero. Meanwhile 40+ hospitals cut the care since 2025 and a 30-yr LA clinic closed.
Not a booming industry. A field in retreat.
-
Science Explainer: Where’s the “$4.5 billion trans industry” the ads keep warning about?
A $10M AI ad says a predatory industry sweeps kids into surgery. The data disagree: about one US child a day starts gender-affirming meds, none under 12 on hormones, surgery on pre-teens ~zero. Meanwhile 40+ hospitals cut the care since 2025 and a 30-yr LA clinic closed.
Not a booming industry. A field in retreat.
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: When the outrage is built by machines
Two signals this week: a $10M AI deepfake ad, and a comment flood 96% bot-written, faking support for an anti-trans gun rule. Fabricated events + fabricated consensus.
Spot it: no AI disclosure on extreme footage; spikes of near-identical comments; no primary source.
Don’t share it, even to debunk.
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CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: When the outrage is built by machines
Two signals this week: a $10M AI deepfake ad, and a comment flood 96% bot-written, faking support for an anti-trans gun rule. Fabricated events + fabricated consensus.
Spot it: no AI disclosure on extreme footage; spikes of near-identical comments; no primary source.
Don’t share it, even to debunk.
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: When the outrage is built by machines
Two signals this week: a $10M AI deepfake ad, and a comment flood 96% bot-written, faking support for an anti-trans gun rule. Fabricated events + fabricated consensus.
Spot it: no AI disclosure on extreme footage; spikes of near-identical comments; no primary source.
Don’t share it, even to debunk.
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: When the outrage is built by machines
Two signals this week: a $10M AI deepfake ad, and a comment flood 96% bot-written, faking support for an anti-trans gun rule. Fabricated events + fabricated consensus.
Spot it: no AI disclosure on extreme footage; spikes of near-identical comments; no primary source.
Don’t share it, even to debunk.
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: When the outrage is built by machines
Two signals this week: a $10M AI deepfake ad, and a comment flood 96% bot-written, faking support for an anti-trans gun rule. Fabricated events + fabricated consensus.
Spot it: no AI disclosure on extreme footage; spikes of near-identical comments; no primary source.
Don’t share it, even to debunk.
-
RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·FACT CHECK: Measles-rubella vaccines are safe and effective, says DOH
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·FACT CHECK: Measles-rubella vaccines are safe and effective, says DOH
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·FACT CHECK: Measles-rubella vaccines are safe and effective, says DOH
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·
FACT CHECK: Video of Marcos and Romualdez laughing about ‘fooling’ the public is AI-generated
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·
FACT CHECK: Video of Marcos and Romualdez laughing about ‘fooling’ the public is AI-generated
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·
FACT CHECK: Video of Marcos and Romualdez laughing about ‘fooling’ the public is AI-generated
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CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk Alert: The manufactured flashpoint
You'll see the WNBA story again — then again with a new athlete, a new league, a new clip. The pattern is the product: one real remark, manufactured scale, staged where the "threat" isn't even present.
Spot it: the threat is absent, the velocity is off, and "this one case" quietly becomes "the principle."
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CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk Alert: The manufactured flashpoint
You'll see the WNBA story again — then again with a new athlete, a new league, a new clip. The pattern is the product: one real remark, manufactured scale, staged where the "threat" isn't even present.
Spot it: the threat is absent, the velocity is off, and "this one case" quietly becomes "the principle."
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk Alert: The manufactured flashpoint
You'll see the WNBA story again — then again with a new athlete, a new league, a new clip. The pattern is the product: one real remark, manufactured scale, staged where the "threat" isn't even present.
Spot it: the threat is absent, the velocity is off, and "this one case" quietly becomes "the principle."
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk Alert: The manufactured flashpoint
You'll see the WNBA story again — then again with a new athlete, a new league, a new clip. The pattern is the product: one real remark, manufactured scale, staged where the "threat" isn't even present.
Spot it: the threat is absent, the velocity is off, and "this one case" quietly becomes "the principle."
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: The Manufactured Crowd
Before the ATF's anti-trans gun rule closed for comment, a wall of identical "I support this commonsense rule" messages buried the real objections — ~96% looked machine-generated.
The move: manufactured consensus (astroturfing) — fake the crowd so people assume it's settled and go quiet.
The tell: a deadline-eve spike of copy-paste praise. A tell, not a mandate.
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CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: The Manufactured Crowd
Before the ATF's anti-trans gun rule closed for comment, a wall of identical "I support this commonsense rule" messages buried the real objections — ~96% looked machine-generated.
The move: manufactured consensus (astroturfing) — fake the crowd so people assume it's settled and go quiet.
The tell: a deadline-eve spike of copy-paste praise. A tell, not a mandate.
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CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: The Manufactured Crowd
Before the ATF's anti-trans gun rule closed for comment, a wall of identical "I support this commonsense rule" messages buried the real objections — ~96% looked machine-generated.
The move: manufactured consensus (astroturfing) — fake the crowd so people assume it's settled and go quiet.
The tell: a deadline-eve spike of copy-paste praise. A tell, not a mandate.
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: The Manufactured Crowd
Before the ATF's anti-trans gun rule closed for comment, a wall of identical "I support this commonsense rule" messages buried the real objections — ~96% looked machine-generated.
The move: manufactured consensus (astroturfing) — fake the crowd so people assume it's settled and go quiet.
The tell: a deadline-eve spike of copy-paste praise. A tell, not a mandate.
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A massive, long-term U.S. study reveals 𝐍𝐎 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊 between undocumented immigration and crime rates. 🇺🇸📉In fact, areas with rising immigrant populations experienced 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 in property crime. Data over rhetoric.#science #Wissenschaft #scicomm #data #immigration #Forschung #evidence #factcheck
https://socialecology.uci.edu/news/large-scale-study-finds-no-link-between-crime-and-unauthorized-immigration -
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: the deepfake attack ad coming to your feed
A super PAC is spending $10M on AI-generated attack ads — the first shows a Senate candidate as a surgeon over a child. Texas now; Wisconsin & Georgia next.
The tell: a politician shown *doing* something monstrous, not saying it. Fabricated action is the deepfake giveaway. Don't repost it, even to condemn it — that's what the $10M buys.
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CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: the deepfake attack ad coming to your feed
A super PAC is spending $10M on AI-generated attack ads — the first shows a Senate candidate as a surgeon over a child. Texas now; Wisconsin & Georgia next.
The tell: a politician shown *doing* something monstrous, not saying it. Fabricated action is the deepfake giveaway. Don't repost it, even to condemn it — that's what the $10M buys.
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: the deepfake attack ad coming to your feed
A super PAC is spending $10M on AI-generated attack ads — the first shows a Senate candidate as a surgeon over a child. Texas now; Wisconsin & Georgia next.
The tell: a politician shown *doing* something monstrous, not saying it. Fabricated action is the deepfake giveaway. Don't repost it, even to condemn it — that's what the $10M buys.
-
CW: disinformation alert
🔍 Pre-Bunk: the deepfake attack ad coming to your feed
A super PAC is spending $10M on AI-generated attack ads — the first shows a Senate candidate as a surgeon over a child. Texas now; Wisconsin & Georgia next.
The tell: a politician shown *doing* something monstrous, not saying it. Fabricated action is the deepfake giveaway. Don't repost it, even to condemn it — that's what the $10M buys.
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·
FACT CHECK: UPLIFT cash aid is for eligible beneficiaries, not all national ID holders
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·
FACT CHECK: UPLIFT cash aid is for eligible beneficiaries, not all national ID holders
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·
FACT CHECK: UPLIFT cash aid is for eligible beneficiaries, not all national ID holders
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·
FACT CHECK: Video of ICC judge saying Duterte should be released is AI-generated
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·
FACT CHECK: Video of ICC judge saying Duterte should be released is AI-generated
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RAPPLER | Philippine & World News | Investigative Journalism | Data | Civic Engagement | Public Interest [Unofficial] @[email protected] ·
FACT CHECK: Video of ICC judge saying Duterte should be released is AI-generated
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A viral video shared by BJP MP Harbhajan Singh as evidence of Punjab’s drug crisis was from Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan, Punjab Police said. https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/india/fact-check-harbajan-singhs-viral-zombie-drug-video-was-from-rajasthan-not-punjab-t7j1iwld?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #FactCheck #DrugAbuse #Punjab
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A viral video shared by BJP MP Harbhajan Singh as evidence of Punjab’s drug crisis was from Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan, Punjab Police said. https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/india/fact-check-harbajan-singhs-viral-zombie-drug-video-was-from-rajasthan-not-punjab-t7j1iwld?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #FactCheck #DrugAbuse #Punjab
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A viral video shared by BJP MP Harbhajan Singh as evidence of Punjab’s drug crisis was from Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan, Punjab Police said. https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/india/fact-check-harbajan-singhs-viral-zombie-drug-video-was-from-rajasthan-not-punjab-t7j1iwld?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #FactCheck #DrugAbuse #Punjab
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A viral video shared by BJP MP Harbhajan Singh as evidence of Punjab’s drug crisis was from Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan, Punjab Police said. https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/india/fact-check-harbajan-singhs-viral-zombie-drug-video-was-from-rajasthan-not-punjab-t7j1iwld?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon #FactCheck #DrugAbuse #Punjab
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I mean… I’m all for his choices going sideways, but if this were any other presidency it would be madness.
I’m starting to believe Robert Johnson & crossroad demon deals or something similar.Trump made a deal with a devil. Only explanation why he’s still alive.
Contradicting his public statements, #Trump took secret flight from Turkey amid #Iran threat.
The White House said Trump was aboard #AirForceOne as he left a NATO summit.
He wasn’t.
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I mean… I’m all for his choices going sideways, but if this were any other presidency it would be madness.
I’m starting to believe Robert Johnson & crossroad demon deals or something similar.Trump made a deal with a devil. Only explanation why he’s still alive.
Contradicting his public statements, #Trump took secret flight from Turkey amid #Iran threat.
The White House said Trump was aboard #AirForceOne as he left a NATO summit.
He wasn’t.
-
I mean… I’m all for his choices going sideways, but if this were any other presidency it would be madness.
I’m starting to believe Robert Johnson & crossroad demon deals or something similar.Trump made a deal with a devil. Only explanation why he’s still alive.
Contradicting his public statements, #Trump took secret flight from Turkey amid #Iran threat.
The White House said Trump was aboard #AirForceOne as he left a NATO summit.
He wasn’t.
-
I mean… I’m all for his choices going sideways, but if this were any other presidency it would be madness.
I’m starting to believe Robert Johnson & crossroad demon deals or something similar.Trump made a deal with a devil. Only explanation why he’s still alive.
Contradicting his public statements, #Trump took secret flight from Turkey amid #Iran threat.
The White House said Trump was aboard #AirForceOne as he left a NATO summit.
He wasn’t.
-
I mean… I’m all for his choices going sideways, but if this were any other presidency it would be madness.
I’m starting to believe Robert Johnson & crossroad demon deals or something similar.Trump made a deal with a devil. Only explanation why he’s still alive.
Contradicting his public statements, #Trump took secret flight from Turkey amid #Iran threat.
The White House said Trump was aboard #AirForceOne as he left a NATO summit.
He wasn’t.
-
One Fake Post Can Move Markets, Minds, and Millions
https://wp.me/p84YjG-b8c
#deepfakes #misinformation #stockmarket #mediaLiteracy #factcheck #zsoltzsemba -
One Fake Post Can Move Markets, Minds, and Millions
https://wp.me/p84YjG-b8c
#deepfakes #misinformation #stockmarket #mediaLiteracy #factcheck #zsoltzsemba -
One Fake Post Can Move Markets, Minds, and Millions
https://wp.me/p84YjG-b8c
#deepfakes #misinformation #stockmarket #mediaLiteracy #factcheck #zsoltzsemba