#extremeevents — Public Fediverse posts

Flohn! "What is #ClimateChange? Climate Change implies an increase of #ExtremeEvents, both in terms of magnitude and frequency." "Was ist Klimawandel? Klimawandel bedeutet eine Zunahme von Extremereignissen, sowohl in Bezug auf das Ausmaß als auch auf die Häufigkeit" Prof. Dr. Hermann #Flohn, 1978

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4sjlde4fw4624jwbyzd4s75g/post/3lqvcqnidas2d

Update from a few days ago on the ongoing impacts from ex-typhoon Halong back in October. "Bryan Fisher, director of the Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management…said with the scale of destruction, the rebuilding effort will take years." #akwx #ExtremeEvents @Jdnome @Climatologist49

https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/02/05/officials-estimate-125-million-in-western-alaska-storm-damage-so-far-and-a-long-road-to-recovery/

Update from a few days ago on the ongoing impacts from ex-typhoon Halong back in October. "Bryan Fisher, director of the Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management…said with the scale of destruction, the rebuilding effort will take years." #akwx #ExtremeEvents @Jdnome @Climatologist49

https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/02/05/officials-estimate-125-million-in-western-alaska-storm-damage-so-far-and-a-long-road-to-recovery/

Another excellent article on the hydrological effects of clearcut logging. Be sure to take the time to watch the video featuring UBC forest hydrologist Younis Alila. Alila and his colleagues have transformed the way we analyze logging impacts on floods, drought, mass wasting, and sediment delivery to streams from logging operations.

https://thenarwhal.ca/trouble-in-the-headwaters-documentary/

#Clearcut #Logging #ForestHydrology #Hydrology #Floods #ExtremeEvents #ForestManagement

Another excellent article on the hydrological effects of clearcut logging. Be sure to take the time to watch the video featuring UBC forest hydrologist Younis Alila. Alila and his colleagues have transformed the way we analyze logging impacts on floods, drought, mass wasting, and sediment delivery to streams from logging operations.

https://thenarwhal.ca/trouble-in-the-headwaters-documentary/

#Clearcut #Logging #ForestHydrology #Hydrology #Floods #ExtremeEvents #ForestManagement

💡 New Paper!
Have you ever wondered, in which ways #ArtificialIntelligence can help us to better predict and respond to #ExtremeEvents?

👉 Find out what #AI can already do, its challenges and opportunities:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56573-8

💡 New Paper!
Have you ever wondered, in which ways #ArtificialIntelligence can help us to better predict and respond to #ExtremeEvents?

👉 Find out what #AI can already do, its challenges and opportunities:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56573-8

#AI4PEX research focus 8: Projections
AI4PEX aims to deliver improved #climateprojections of changes in the regimes of #ExtremeEvents and associated impacts from the next generation of #ESMs #ArtificialIntelligence-enhanced and grounded on #earthobservations.

#AI4PEX research focus 8: Projections
AI4PEX aims to deliver improved #climateprojections of changes in the regimes of #ExtremeEvents and associated impacts from the next generation of #ESMs #ArtificialIntelligence-enhanced and grounded on #earthobservations.

‘#Antarctica

‘Two incredible #ExtremeEvents’: Antarctic #Sea#Ice on cusp of record winter low for second year running

Last year Antartica’s sea ice was 1.6m sq km below average – the size of Britain, France, Germany and Spain combined. This week it had even less than that
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/10/two-incredible-extreme-events-antarctic-sea-ice-on-cusp-of-record-winter-low-for-second-year-running
#ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRising #TippingPoints

‘#Antarctica

‘Two incredible #ExtremeEvents’: Antarctic #Sea#Ice on cusp of record winter low for second year running

Last year Antartica’s sea ice was 1.6m sq km below average – the size of Britain, France, Germany and Spain combined. This week it had even less than that
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/10/two-incredible-extreme-events-antarctic-sea-ice-on-cusp-of-record-winter-low-for-second-year-running
#ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRising #TippingPoints

On The Uncertain Intensity Estimate Of The 1859 Carrington Storm
--
https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2024015 <-- shared paper
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event <-- background on the Carrington Event
--
["The big one", if it happened today we would be right royally %^#$& (excuse my pretend language 😉 ), we are nowhere close to being hardened, etc; my other ½ is a space weather scientist, until I knew her I was not fully aware of all the risks and hazards associated with space weather]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #Magneticstorm #spaceweather #historicalevent #statisticalanalysis #spatialanalysis #geostatistics #model #modeling #geomagneticstorm #geomagnetism #solar #sun #risk #hazard #infrastructure #CME #coronalmassejection #solarflare #blackouts #humanimpacts #electricpowergrid #CarringtonEvent #numericmodel #aurora #usgs #space #geophysics #naturalhazards #extremeevents

On The Uncertain Intensity Estimate Of The 1859 Carrington Storm
--
https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2024015 <-- shared paper
--
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event <-- background on the Carrington Event
--
["The big one", if it happened today we would be right royally %^#$& (excuse my pretend language 😉 ), we are nowhere close to being hardened, etc; my other ½ is a space weather scientist, until I knew her I was not fully aware of all the risks and hazards associated with space weather]
#GIS #spatial #mapping #Magneticstorm #spaceweather #historicalevent #statisticalanalysis #spatialanalysis #geostatistics #model #modeling #geomagneticstorm #geomagnetism #solar #sun #risk #hazard #infrastructure #CME #coronalmassejection #solarflare #blackouts #humanimpacts #electricpowergrid #CarringtonEvent #numericmodel #aurora #usgs #space #geophysics #naturalhazards #extremeevents

7/

In [4], the Authors
"demonstrate that the geographic range and frequency of noncompensable heat extremes will increase rapidly, given only moderate continued increase in global average #temperatures. This implies that, in the near future, a substantial portion of the world’s population will be exposed to these noncompensable environmental conditions" [4]

"#ClimateChange is driving the emergence of #ExtremeEvents far outside of the range of historical experience across the world" [4]

7/

In [4], the Authors
"demonstrate that the geographic range and frequency of noncompensable heat extremes will increase rapidly, given only moderate continued increase in global average #temperatures. This implies that, in the near future, a substantial portion of the world’s population will be exposed to these noncompensable environmental conditions" [4]

"#ClimateChange is driving the emergence of #ExtremeEvents far outside of the range of historical experience across the world" [4]

Motivated by the recent extreme snowfall in München. Here, the global patterns of snowfall. Data from @copernicusecmwf Code: https://github.com/lazarusA/LittlePieces @makie #julialang #datavis #datavisualization #snow #extremeweather #extremeevents

Quantifying Sediment Deposition Volume In Vegetated Areas With UAV Data
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https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13122391 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #sediment #deposition #UAV #drone #drones #remotesensing #flooding #flood #debrisflow #DEM #elevation #extremeevents #naturalhazard #extremeweather #hydrometeorology #risk #hazard #massmovement #soil #erosion #engineeringgeology #geomorphology #geomorphometry #damage #economicloss #survey #costs #tropical #Dominica #landslide #HurricaneMaria #hurricane #rainfall #precipitation #flashflooding #hydrology #water #alluvialfan #river #channel #LiDAR #volumes #cleanup #floodlevel #DTM #model #modeling #vegetation #prediction

Quantifying Sediment Deposition Volume In Vegetated Areas With UAV Data
--
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13122391 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #sediment #deposition #UAV #drone #drones #remotesensing #flooding #flood #debrisflow #DEM #elevation #extremeevents #naturalhazard #extremeweather #hydrometeorology #risk #hazard #massmovement #soil #erosion #engineeringgeology #geomorphology #geomorphometry #damage #economicloss #survey #costs #tropical #Dominica #landslide #HurricaneMaria #hurricane #rainfall #precipitation #flashflooding #hydrology #water #alluvialfan #river #channel #LiDAR #volumes #cleanup #floodlevel #DTM #model #modeling #vegetation #prediction

Since I became aware of the warming stripes, I've wanted to explore the data and see how bad it is. And it's worse than I thought; the differences at local scales are greater than that deceiving global 2-degree increase. Some regions exceed 7 degrees 😱. See all those black bumps and sinks? Yeah, there! #climatechange #extremeevents #extremeweather #showyourstripes #visualization #climatecrisis #climateemergency #climateaction

Our paper has been #published!

We analysed @wcrpcmip models using ESMValTool and @sklearn to detect #ExtremeEvents with Gaussian mixture models.

#OpenAccess #ClimateChange

https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038906

Hydrological Model-Based Streamflow Reconstruction For Indian Sub-Continental River Basins, 1951–2021
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02618-w <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #India #river #flow #model #modeling #numericmodeling #historic #water #hydrology #waterresources #streamflow #watersecurity #watercycle #monitoring #observations #regional #hydroclimatic #extremeweather #extremeevents #IndianSubcontinent #river #riverbasins #watersheds #hydrologicmodeling #weather #routing #network #mizuRoute #GangaBasin #climatechange #adaption #mitigation #planning #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal

Hydrological Model-Based Streamflow Reconstruction For Indian Sub-Continental River Basins, 1951–2021
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02618-w <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #India #river #flow #model #modeling #numericmodeling #historic #water #hydrology #waterresources #streamflow #watersecurity #watercycle #monitoring #observations #regional #hydroclimatic #extremeweather #extremeevents #IndianSubcontinent #river #riverbasins #watersheds #hydrologicmodeling #weather #routing #network #mizuRoute #GangaBasin #climatechange #adaption #mitigation #planning #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal

Global Study Warns Water Security Threatened By Droughts And Heat Waves Worldwide
--
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-global-threatened-droughts-worldwide.html <-- shared technical article
--
https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf82e <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #hydrology #waterresources #watersecurity #global #usecase #users #extraction #drought #heatwave #compoundevents #climatechange #extrememweather #population #demographics #wateruse #sector #model #modeling #agriculture #farming #domestic #urban #irrigation #industrial #electricty #thermoelectric #energy #manufacturing #livestock #history #change #extremeevents #region #regional #spatialdata #humanimpacts

Global Study Warns Water Security Threatened By Droughts And Heat Waves Worldwide
--
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-global-threatened-droughts-worldwide.html <-- shared technical article
--
https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf82e <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #model #hydrology #waterresources #watersecurity #global #usecase #users #extraction #drought #heatwave #compoundevents #climatechange #extrememweather #population #demographics #wateruse #sector #model #modeling #agriculture #farming #domestic #urban #irrigation #industrial #electricty #thermoelectric #energy #manufacturing #livestock #history #change #extremeevents #region #regional #spatialdata #humanimpacts

New Study Shows The Gulf Stream Is Definitely Weakening - Understanding the Changes Could Help Predict Future Trends in Extreme Events
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https://www.sciencealert.com/confirmed-new-study-shows-the-gulf-stream-is-definitely-weakening <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105170 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #numericalmodeling #model #modeling #GulfStream #current #weakening #climate #climatechange #oceancurrent #warmcurrent #weather #extremeweather #extremeevents #remotesensing #satellite #insitu #trend #USA #Europe #UK #sealevelrise #temperature #precipitation #humanimpacts #globalwarming #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal

New Study Shows The Gulf Stream Is Definitely Weakening - Understanding the Changes Could Help Predict Future Trends in Extreme Events
--
https://www.sciencealert.com/confirmed-new-study-shows-the-gulf-stream-is-definitely-weakening <-- shared technical article
--
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105170 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #numericalmodeling #model #modeling #GulfStream #current #weakening #climate #climatechange #oceancurrent #warmcurrent #weather #extremeweather #extremeevents #remotesensing #satellite #insitu #trend #USA #Europe #UK #sealevelrise #temperature #precipitation #humanimpacts #globalwarming #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal

🌪️ The consequences of storm #Daniel are a sadly representative example of the #ExtremeEvents which will increase with #ClimateChange.

In #Greece, more than 2 years' worth of rain fell in 12 hours, flooding 73K Ha. Such massive precipitations are exceptional.

🧵 1/5

🌪️ The consequences of storm #Daniel are a sadly representative example of the #ExtremeEvents which will increase with #ClimateChange.

In #Greece, more than 2 years' worth of rain fell in 12 hours, flooding 73K Ha. Such massive precipitations are exceptional.

🧵 1/5

New review papers shows how vulnerable natural #Antarctic systems are to #ExtremeEvents and highlight how governance and #environmental #protection of the continent must take them into account. Lead author Martin Siegert says: „Reducing #greenhouse gas emissions to #NetZero is our best hope of preserving Antarctica, and this must matter to every country – and individual – on the planet“. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/997837; https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1229283/full

3/

"4-sigma extremes, still nearly absent in the first decade of this century, affected ~3% of the land area during 2011−2020, reflecting a roughly 1000-fold increase compared to 1951−1980" [1]

#References

[1] Robinson, A., Lehmann, J., Barriopedro, D., Rahmstorf, S., Coumou, D., 2021. Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4 (1), 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00202-w

#DOI #ClimateChange #ExtremeEvents #GlobalScale
@rahmstorf

3/

"4-sigma extremes, still nearly absent in the first decade of this century, affected ~3% of the land area during 2011−2020, reflecting a roughly 1000-fold increase compared to 1951−1980" [1]

#References

[1] Robinson, A., Lehmann, J., Barriopedro, D., Rahmstorf, S., Coumou, D., 2021. Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4 (1), 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00202-w

#DOI #ClimateChange #ExtremeEvents #GlobalScale
@rahmstorf

1/

Re-reading [1] when commentaries point to qualitative shifts of #ExtremeEvents under #ClimateChange, e.g.
- https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02219-y
- https://nypost.com/2023/07/06/signs-that-earths-climate-has-entered-uncharted-territory/

Note Fig. 1 as recalled by @rahmstorf

https://fediscience.org/@rahmstorf/110616474085646205

Qualitatively, in Fig 1a different sigma levels (the higher, the rarer and more extreme is the weather event: here, land area increasingly hot) appear to start diverging later in time. Wondering if even worse sigma levels (before, so exceedingly rare) may start diverging

1/

Re-reading [1] when commentaries point to qualitative shifts of #ExtremeEvents under #ClimateChange, e.g.
- https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02219-y
- https://nypost.com/2023/07/06/signs-that-earths-climate-has-entered-uncharted-territory/

Note Fig. 1 as recalled by @rahmstorf

https://fediscience.org/@rahmstorf/110616474085646205

Qualitatively, in Fig 1a different sigma levels (the higher, the rarer and more extreme is the weather event: here, land area increasingly hot) appear to start diverging later in time. Wondering if even worse sigma levels (before, so exceedingly rare) may start diverging

3/

#IPCC [4] on #AttributionScience:

"concerns the identification of causes for changes in characteristics of the #climate system (e.g., trends, single #ExtremeEvents)"

"new approaches have been developed to answer the question of whether, and to what extent, external drivers have altered the #probability and intensity of an individual extreme event [... T]he attribution of #ExtremeWeather events has emerged as a growing field of climate research with an increasing body of literature"

3/

#IPCC [4] on #AttributionScience:

"concerns the identification of causes for changes in characteristics of the #climate system (e.g., trends, single #ExtremeEvents)"

"new approaches have been developed to answer the question of whether, and to what extent, external drivers have altered the #probability and intensity of an individual extreme event [... T]he attribution of #ExtremeWeather events has emerged as a growing field of climate research with an increasing body of literature"

Last year I published “Emergency Preparedness,” a feature essay, in THIS Magazine. Thinking a lot about the intersections of mental health, climate change, and extreme events this week in smoke-blanketed Calgary.

You can read the article free online here: https://this.org/2022/01/06/emergency-preparedness/

#OCD #MentalHealth #Neurodivergence #ClimateChange #Weather #ExtremeWeather #ExtremeEvents #EmergencyPreparedness #Alberta #Calgary #Flood #yyc

Last year I published “Emergency Preparedness,” a feature essay, in THIS Magazine. Thinking a lot about the intersections of mental health, climate change, and extreme events this week in smoke-blanketed Calgary.

You can read the article free online here: https://this.org/2022/01/06/emergency-preparedness/

#OCD #MentalHealth #Neurodivergence #ClimateChange #Weather #ExtremeWeather #ExtremeEvents #EmergencyPreparedness #Alberta #Calgary #Flood #yyc

Changing Intensity Of Hydroclimatic Extreme Events Revealed By GRACE And GRACE-FO
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00040-5 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #water #hydrology #watersecurity #pluvials #flood #flooding #drought #climatechange #events #climate #extremeweather #mitigation #model #modeling #global #remotesensing #gischat #GRACE #GRACEFO #satellite #extremeevents #pluvial #temperature #wet #dry #extremes #intensity #ENSO #surfacetemperatures #climatecrisis #climatezone #spatialanalysis #hydroclimate #spatiotemporal #corrleation #rainfall #precipitation
[some images courtesy of NYT]

Changing Intensity Of Hydroclimatic Extreme Events Revealed By GRACE And GRACE-FO
--
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00040-5 <-- shared paper
--
#GIS #spatial #mapping #water #hydrology #watersecurity #pluvials #flood #flooding #drought #climatechange #events #climate #extremeweather #mitigation #model #modeling #global #remotesensing #gischat #GRACE #GRACEFO #satellite #extremeevents #pluvial #temperature #wet #dry #extremes #intensity #ENSO #surfacetemperatures #climatecrisis #climatezone #spatialanalysis #hydroclimate #spatiotemporal #corrleation #rainfall #precipitation
[some images courtesy of NYT]

It was such a pleasure to see so many familiar faces and meet new colleagues at #AGU22 who are working on compound climate/weather extreme events and multi-risk! It's always inspiring to be around so many dedicated and passionate scientists working towards a better understanding and management of these complex challenges.

A special thanks to Risk-KAN for helping this #AGU side tradition continue.

#extremeevents #riskmitigation #climatechange #climate #weather #risk #riskmanagement #DRR

It was such a pleasure to see so many familiar faces and meet new colleagues at #AGU22 who are working on compound climate/weather extreme events and multi-risk! It's always inspiring to be around so many dedicated and passionate scientists working towards a better understanding and management of these complex challenges.

A special thanks to Risk-KAN for helping this #AGU side tradition continue.

#extremeevents #riskmitigation #climatechange #climate #weather #risk #riskmanagement #DRR

Come check out #AGU22 session on extreme events in the paleorecord! We’re talking #prehistoric #hurricanes & #floods Tuesday afternoon & all day on Wednesday! This is a session that I’m proud to have organized & I hope it will be an #AGU regular. We love #paleohazards & hope you’ll join us as we discuss the latest research in the field! #paleotempestology #paleoclimatology #paleohydrology #hazards #extremeevents #tropicalcyclones #water #geoscience

Come check out #AGU22 session on extreme events in the paleorecord! We’re talking #prehistoric #hurricanes & #floods Tuesday afternoon & all day on Wednesday! This is a session that I’m proud to have organized & I hope it will be an #AGU regular. We love #paleohazards & hope you’ll join us as we discuss the latest research in the field! #paleotempestology #paleoclimatology #paleohydrology #hazards #extremeevents #tropicalcyclones #water #geoscience

🚨🚨Tomorrow LAST DAY to submit!!🚨🚨
If your research includes quantifying long-term #landscape processes rates and/or timings of geomorphic and geologic #ExtremeEvents using any #geochronology methods, submit to our InquaRoma2023
session!

🚨🚨Tomorrow LAST DAY to submit!!🚨🚨
If your research includes quantifying long-term #landscape processes rates and/or timings of geomorphic and geologic #ExtremeEvents using any #geochronology methods, submit to our InquaRoma2023
session!

#ClimXtreme is a German research consortium dealing with issues related to "#ClimateChange and #ExtremeEvents", especially wind/storms, heavy rain, droughts/heatwaves.

A collection of papers can be found in the special issue: "Past and future European atmospheric extreme events under climate change", https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/special_issue1187.html

More details on the consortium of 35 institutes/39 projects: https://www.climxtreme.net

This week, we had the final assembly of the first phase at @DeutscherWetterdienst:

I just moved to FediScience, therefore I repeat my #Introduction:

I am a #ClimateScientist at Germany’s national meteorological service (#DWD).

I am head of the department “#hydrometeorology”. We provide hydrometeorological products & services, esp. for #hydrology & #WaterManagement in #Germany, incl. assessments of #ExtremeEvents, #ClimateChange, etc.

The dep. hosts the 'Global #Precipitation #Climatology Centre' (#GPCC) & the Satellite Application Facility on #ClimateMonitoring (#CMSAF).

#Introduction:

I am a #ClimateScientist at Germany’s national meteorological service (#DWD, https://social.bund.de/@DeutscherWetterdienst).

I am head of the department “#hydrometeorology”, which provides hydrometeorological products & user-tailored services, esp. for #hydrology and #WaterManagement in #Germany, incl. assessments of #ExtremeEvents, #ClimateChange, etc.

The department hosts the 'Global #Precipitation #Climatology Centre' (#GPCC) & the Satellite Application Facility on #ClimateMonitoring (#CMSAF).