#electionpredictions — Public Fediverse posts

Here are details of my prediction for today's #Lithuania's #Seimas election.
I've used the same approach and model (and a lot of the same code) that I did in 2020.
None of the code, the website coding, or the text is very clean, but I'm tired and going to bed.
It may not have been a good idea to try doing my first #Quarto project with something that has a deadline - #ElectionPredictions are more interesting before the elections.
#rinkimai2024 #rstats #dataviz
http://projects.martin-nielsen.ca/OneFortyOne/LTU-2024-Parliament-Predictions.html#plot-of-expected-outcome

I have a prediction to share.

Typically, having worked on it for hours I am having trouble putting my narrative description up online, but the image gives a summary, and the table is below.

Party First Round Seats Expected First Round Winners Second Round Seats (rounded) Total
LSDP 20 2 19 41
TS-LKD 18 3 19 40
PPNA 15 0 6 21
DSVL 8 0 3 11
LVŽS 6 0 5 11
LS 8 0 1 9
Independent 1 0 3 4
LLRA 2 0 1 3
Laisvės partija 0 0 1 1
#ElectionPredictions #rinkimai2024 #Seimas #Lithuania #rstats #DataViz