#co03 — Public Fediverse posts

🚨🚨🚨 #CO03 Rep. Jeff Hurd (R) just voted to strip away healthcare from up to 103,000 of his own constituents.

Hurd won by 5.0 points last year.

Dems have overperformed in Special Elections by 15 points so far this year.

Donate to flip #CO03 today:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/houseblue26

#CO-03 Jeff Hurd (R): Won by 5.0 points last year ~40,600 enrolled in #ACA exchange plans ~62,500 enrolled in #ACA Medicaid expansion ~103,100 combined at risk (13.9% of total pop

In #COLORADO, #CO03 Jeff Hurd, #CO04 Lauren Boebert, #CO05 Jeff Crank & #CO08 Gabe Evans won by 5%, 11.6%, 13.8% & 0.8% respectively. Across their districts over 650,000 residents rely on #Medicaid/CHIP, or 22% of their total population.

Are you a US citizen from #Colorado living abroad? YOU CAN STILL #VOTE and your vote matters!

#FliptheHouse with Yadira Caraveo in #CO08 and Adam Frisch in #CO03. They reach across party lines to end the chaos in Washington. NOVEMBER IS NOW!

📢 Go to https://voteabroad.org/SocMediaVFA, select #CO state, and get all the info and help you need to V O T E!

@KamalaHarrisWin @downticketdems @womensvoices

https://www.caraveoforcongress.com/
https://adamforcolorado.com/

#DownTicketDems #VoteBlue #BlueWave2024 #VoteFromAbroad

2/ Via Dave Wasserman:

This is good news for Republicans’ chances of holding onto #CO03, as Boebert was the main reason it was in so much jeopardy. Will move from Toss Up to Lean R at CookPolitical

#CO03 NEEDS to elect Adam Frisch in 2024. A third term for the fascist Boebert guarantees a lifetime pension for her & seals Colorado's reputation as an elector of dumbasses.

@slcw

@georgetakei

I don't agree with allot AOC stands for by I absolutely Respect her. As for BoBo, she is a huge part to what is wrong with this country right now. It's sad that not enough voters in #CO03 think otherwise.

Update 8am Fri Nov18 - Control of the US House.

Called races insure the GOP has majority of at least 218-217.

With called + lean races, the GOP has:

GOP 221-214

In the past 24 hours, 1 more race called, #CA47 (Porter) for D (does not change the expected outcome).

6 Races remain uncalled:

#CA03 #CA22 #CO03 (all lean GOP)
#AK01 #CA13 #CA34 (all lean Dem).

CO-03 is currently doing a bunch of overseas/military/cured ballot drops.

Dems need to win the estimated remaining vote by a margin of D+26.93

Average of drops in the last 24 hours: D+15.95

Average of last 1k votes: D+28.86

#CO03

HOUSE STATE OF PLAY: It looks like we're down to 4 districts. The #CO03 cured ballot count is happening now, county by county; Frisch has gained a few dozen so far but Boebert is still ahead by over 1,000. CA-13 has flipped back to the GOP. Still 40% of the vote out in CA-03.

UPDATE 10pm Mon - US House of Reps

AP calls 3 races: #AZ01-R #AZ06-R #OR06-D

This leaves the total count of calls+leaning seats unchanged:

GOP 222- 213 Dem

To win, Dems must flip at least 5 of the 8 "leans R" races:

#CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22

#Election #Midterm2022results

UPDATE 10pm Mon - US House of Reps

AP calls 3 races: #AZ01-R #AZ06-R #OR06-D

This leaves the total count of calls+leaning seats unchanged:

GOP 222- 213 Dem

To win, Dems must flip at least 5 of the 8 "leans R" races:

#CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22

#Election #Midterm2022results

UPDATE 10pm Mon - US House of Reps

AP calls 3 races: #AZ01-R #AZ06-R #OR06-D

This leaves the total count of calls+leaning seats unchanged:

GOP 222- 213 Dem

To win, Dems must flip at least 5 of the 8 "leans R" races:

#CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22

#Election #Midterm2022results

UPDATE 10pm Mon - US House of Reps

AP calls 3 races: #AZ01-R #AZ06-R #OR06-D

This leaves the total count of calls+leaning seats unchanged:

GOP 222- 213 Dem

To win, Dems must flip at least 5 of the 8 "leans R" races:

#CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22

#Election #Midterm2022results

UPDATE 10pm Mon - US House of Reps

AP calls 3 races: #AZ01-R #AZ06-R #OR06-D

This leaves the total count of calls+leaning seats unchanged:

GOP 222- 213 Dem

To win, Dems must flip at least 5 of the 8 "leans R" races:

#CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22

#Election #Midterm2022results

6pm Monday - US House of Reps Race. There have been NO CHANGES in 24 hrs

At current vote counts, the result would be:

GOP 222-213 Dems

20 uncalled seats: 10 lean GOP, 10 lean Dem (7 competitive)

To win, Dems must flip at least 4 of:
#AZ01 #AZ06 #CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22

UPDATE 5:00am Monday - Control of the US House of Reps Race.

At the current vote counts, the result would be:
GOP 222-213 Dems.

To win, Dems must flip at least 4 of:
#AZ01 #AZ06 #CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22

Heavy sigh. ☹️ Via Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman:

“New House math:

Dem called/probable (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/probable (220): incl. #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA27, #CA41, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (2): #CA13, #CA22

Dems need a miracle now.”

Heavy sigh. ☹️ Via Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman:

“New House math:

Dem called/probable (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/probable (220): incl. #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA27, #CA41, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (2): #CA13, #CA22

Dems need a miracle now.”

Heavy sigh. ☹️ Via Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman:

“New House math:

Dem called/probable (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/probable (220): incl. #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA27, #CA41, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (2): #CA13, #CA22

Dems need a miracle now.”

Heavy sigh. ☹️ Via Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman:

“New House math:

Dem called/probable (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/probable (220): incl. #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA27, #CA41, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (2): #CA13, #CA22

Dems need a miracle now.”

Heavy sigh. ☹️ Via Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman:

“New House math:

Dem called/probable (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/probable (220): incl. #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA27, #CA41, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (2): #CA13, #CA22

Dems need a miracle now.”

Dave Wasserman:

New House math:

Dem called/probable (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/probable (220): incl. #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA27, #CA41, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (2): #CA13, #CA22

Dems need a miracle now.

Dave Wasserman:

New House math:

Dem called/probable (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/probable (220): incl. #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA27, #CA41, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (2): #CA13, #CA22

Dems need a miracle now.

共和党可以庆祝控制众议院了
New House math:

Dem called/probable (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/probable (220): incl. #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA27, #CA41, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (2): #CA13, #CA22

Dems need a miracle now.

共和党可以庆祝控制众议院了
New House math:

Dem called/probable (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/probable (220): incl. #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA27, #CA41, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (2): #CA13, #CA22

Dems need a miracle now.

From Dave Wasserman:

New House math:

Dem called/likely (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (5): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41

Dems need to run the table on the last five for 218.

From Dave Wasserman:

New House math:

Dem called/likely (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (5): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41

Dems need to run the table on the last five for 218.

From Dave Wasserman:

New House math:

Dem called/likely (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (5): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41

Dems need to run the table on the last five for 218.

From Dave Wasserman:

New House math:

Dem called/likely (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (5): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41

Dems need to run the table on the last five for 218.

From Dave Wasserman:

New House math:

Dem called/likely (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (5): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41

Dems need to run the table on the last five for 218.

New House math:

Dem called/likely (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (5): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41

Dems need to run the table on the last five for 218.

New House math:

Dem called/likely (213), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (5): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41

Dems need to run the table on the last five for 218.

Any #Colorado3 voters on here? Msg from Adam Frisch: Ballots are still being cured in #CO03 and our campaign wants to make sure every vote is counted so we can retake the lead.

To check the status of your ballot or to direct a friend to do so, click here: http://Colorado.ballottrax.net

Notice, that even across these 14 districts, the ~600 vote margin I note for #CO03 is the highest it goes. Most of the others are less than 300 votes.

As I've said all along: ~150,000 may be a lot of people nationally, but it's pretty tiny in a nation of 330 million people.

That leaves 14 House seats where the #GOPCovidDeathCult *could* potentially be a decisive factor in the outcome of the race:
#AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CO03, #CO08, #ME02, #NY22, #OR05, #OR06 & #WA03:

That leaves 14 House seats where the #GOPCovidDeathCult *could* potentially be a decisive factor in the outcome of the race:
#AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CO03, #CO08, #ME02, #NY22, #OR05, #OR06 & #WA03:

That leaves 14 House seats where the #GOPCovidDeathCult *could* potentially be a decisive factor in the outcome of the race:
#AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CO03, #CO08, #ME02, #NY22, #OR05, #OR06 & #WA03:

That leaves 14 House seats where the #GOPCovidDeathCult *could* potentially be a decisive factor in the outcome of the race:
#AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CO03, #CO08, #ME02, #NY22, #OR05, #OR06 & #WA03:

That leaves 14 House seats where the #GOPCovidDeathCult *could* potentially be a decisive factor in the outcome of the race:
#AZ01, #AZ06, #CA03, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CO03, #CO08, #ME02, #NY22, #OR05, #OR06 & #WA03:

UPDATED: HUGE shout-out to @[email protected] for resolving the district/county overlap issue! I've revised the blog post to reflect this.

In the case of #CO03, only 18.7% of Eagle County is within the district borders, so it only shifts my estimate by 3-4 votes.
https://acasignups.net/22/11/12/elephant-room-redux-part-2-did-gops-covid-death-cult-decide-any-house-races

Only 17 of those deaths happened in Eagle County (total pop. 55K), so only including half the county, or none at all, doesn't really change these numbers much.

*IF* Boebert loses by less than ~600 votes (she's ahead by ~1,100 at the moment), that would put #CO03 in this zone. 8/

As it happens, the first example of such a district happens to be...#CO03, Lauren Boebert's district.

#CO03 *fully* includes 26 CO counties, plus just *1* partial county (Eagle County, which is shared with just 1 other district). 6/

https://acasignups.net/22/11/12/elephant-room-redux-part-2-did-gops-covid-death-cult-decide-any-house-races

New House math:

Dem called/likely (212), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (6): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03

Dems need to run the table on Toss Ups for 218.

New House math:

Dem called/likely (212), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
Toss Ups (6): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03

Dems need to run the table on Toss Ups for 218.

NO CHANGE 7:30am Saturday in the Race for US House Control.

No race-changing results have been called.

The House continues to be GOP 219-216 Dem.

For Dems to win control, they must win at least 2 of:

#AZ06 #CA03 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA45 #CO03 #NY22 #0R05