#carryingcapacity — Public Fediverse posts

Flood Vulnerability And Load Capacity Assessment Of Historic Masonry Arch Bridges In Ireland Under Changing Climates
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eve.2026.100153 <-- shared paper
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H/T @Upaka Rathnayake
“HIGHLIGHTS:
• Field surveys and flood modelling were used to evaluate the resilience of eight historic masonry arch bridges in County Offaly, Ireland, under projected fluvial flooding conditions.
• Results indicate that increased flood levels and hydraulic forces can significantly reduce bridge load-carrying capacity, with potential reductions of up to 40% due to buoyancy effects during extreme flood events.
• The study demonstrates a clear relationship between flood exposure and structural deterioration, emphasizing the need for structural health monitoring, maintenance strategies, and climate-resilient infrastructure management…
ABSTRACT: Masonry bridges, predominantly constructed from stone or brick, were a common feature of bridge engineering during the 18th and 19th centuries. However, these historic bridges are still in use today, but they are at risk due to various extreme climate conditions. Thus, these bridges are vulnerable to damage and needy for investigation. This paper offers an in-depth analysis of the projected impacts of fluvial flooding stemming from climate change on a number of masonry arch bridge structures located in county Offaly, Ireland. It evaluates bridge resilience by examining estimated flood levels alongside the overall condition of the structures. These assessments play a crucial role in determining the load-bearing capacity of the bridges and whether adjustment factors should be implemented. Particularly for bridges situated on primary and secondary roads with consistent heavy goods vehicle (HGV) traffic, the potential decrease in load-bearing capabilities warrants significant consideration. This study highlights concerns regarding the resilience of these historic structures and presents a valid argument regarding their suitability for contemporary environmental conditions and present-day activities…”
#bridge #resilience #climatechange #impacts #loadcarrying #capacity #masonry #archbridges #fluvial #flood #flooding #Ireland #casestudies #transportation #bridges #historicbridges #history #survey #model #modeling #floodmodeling #CountyOffaly #ContaeUíbhFhailí #hydraulics #engineering #chokepoint #constraint #constriction #hydraulicforce #bridgeload #carryingcapacity #buoyancyeffects #damage #structuraldeterioration #structuralhealth #monitoring #maintenance #planning #policy #climateresilience #infrastructure #management #water #hydrography

A new model of human population and resource usage estimates that population will peak at 11.7-12.4 billion people between 2067 and 2076. Resource replenishment capacity was estimated to be exceeded in 1970. The estimated maximum sustainable population is estimated as 2.5 billion (as in 1950).

Summary: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/05/260526022021.htm

Original paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae51aa

#Science #Population #Resources #CarryingCapacity

@Climatehistories In his book Overshoot, "...Catton is making a _positive_ argument for change, rather than misanthropic framework to label our predicament"

and once our predicament is understood, we can then agree and take action.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-05-10/overshoot-the-ecological-basis-of-revolutionary-change/

#Overshoot #overpopulation #CarryingCapacity #population #climate #ClimateChange

@LordCaramac @breadandcircuses

That many people won't weather the temperatures and storms we've unleashed. So the large number you used measures nothing useful (in my view) but has the bad effect of tethering conversations to anchor bias that cannot be intellectually overcome, even if you only offered it as a stawman to dismiss. I strongly recommend not doing that.

I have the same issue with even mentioning programs that plan to be helpful other than ASAP, yesterday, immediately, etc. Naming any future year suggests the option to pace what can have no safe pace. Better we understand our state will be perpetually "behind schedule and lucky if humanity is still standing" for our lifetimes. Anything else is throwing away thi shreds of hope of any future.

I personally measure carrying capacity not by best case scenarios, such as you vaguely cite, but by worst, and we're not well-preparing for any worst case, much less an enduring crescendo of worst cases.

#climate #CarryingCapacity #AnchoringBias #psychology #ClimateCommunication #ClimateUrgency #Sustainability

#UpGoer5 As the number of people gets bigger in an area, the number of stuff that is able to back them up gets lower. The number of people found in a place is controlled by what is going on around them; such as how much food, water and homes found. When the total of how much of these is found around them gets lower, the total number of people coming into this world gets less. They then reach a still state where the number of people stops getting big. [L.N.] #CarryingCapacity #McGillUniversity

Quite a few billion pieces of extra plastic and copper, etc., and we once got off our lazy butts and used our metabolism for batteries! Oh and now everyone wants one in every room. Now we feel entitled.

#Plastic #PlasticPollution #CarryingCapacity #PlanetaryBoundaries #NovelEntities #Oil #Waste #Landfill

@evanwolf @aljazeera

Phil, if I take your meaning, you're agreeing with me that this thing they're reporting on is the managed approach, and saying that an unmanaged approach is when we hit the famines and people just go away painfully. That seems a reasonable and concise way to sum it up.

I've had discussions with people about the carrying capacity of the planet. People often tell me that technology can improve that a lot. I think the opposite. Technology can make us ever-more-fragile because each tech-engineered bit of our system that we depend on in order to support a too-large population is an opportunity to fail, affecting still more people than if that same part had failed if fewer depended on it. We're ratcheting up the stakes per acre even as we're avoiding addressing the basic threat to each square acre of food production.

(Not even to mention that when it fails, there will be cascade effects beyond just some people not getting fed.)

The carrying capacity of the planet is measured in how well we can carry people when things are NOT working, not how well you can construct a clever story about how when things are working great, everyone is doing fine. We do NOT want to test that bad case, but we are tempting fate.

#population #overpopulation #journalism #deGrowth #society #economics #sustainability #FossilFuels #oil #technology #ethics #metrics #CarryingCapacity

Addressing #ClimateChange Will Not “Save the Planet” reality is #GreenEnergy will save not web of life on Earth but just way of life of one domineering species
#biodiversity crisis caused by too many people demanding too much overshooting #carryingcapacity
https…

How Many People Can the Earth Support? (1998)

... I hope to offer a perspective that differs from the views of those who say that rapid population growth is no problem at all and those who say that population growth is the only problem. A rounded view of the facts should immunize us against both cornucopians and doomsayers. I give more details in my recent book How Many People Can the Earth Support? ...

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1998/10/08/how-many-people-can-the-earth-support/

Paywall: https://archive.is/E5AB8

HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29450230

#Population #Overpopulation #CarryingCapacity #LimitsToGrowth #BigProblems #JoelECohen #RockefellerUniversity #ColumbiaUniversity #NYBooks #NewYorkReviewOfBooks #Books #BookReviews #Reviews

How Many People Can the Earth Support? (1998)

Paywall: https://archive.is/E5AB8

Cohen is the leading authority on Earth's poplation limits and carrying capacity. He's the first to say that the question and answer are complicated, but that does not mean that there are no limits.

In his book, How many people can the earth support?, Cohen visits many estimates and/or claims regarding carrying capacity and explores the assumptions or logic behind many of these, which range from a low of about 100 million to highs over 12 trillion. Most such estimates cluster around 1--10 billion, and seem more credible than outliers, especially of the high-end group.

https://www.worldcat.org/title/how-many-people-can-the-earth-support/oclc/898942239

https://archive.org/details/howmanypeoplecan00cohe

HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28904625

#population #JoelECohen #overpopulation #CarryingCapacity #limits #LimitsToGrowth