#blackswans — Public Fediverse posts

…syncing with the mothership_

#blackswans #whiteswans #monochromephoto #birdsofmastodon #flippingthescript #photo #photography

…syncing with the mothership_

#blackswans #whiteswans #monochromephoto #birdsofmastodon #flippingthescript #photo #photography

😔 let's just hope this doesn't happen 😭

#blackSwans #WA #avianInfluenza #birdFlu

😔 let's just hope this doesn't happen 😭

#blackSwans #WA #avianInfluenza #birdFlu

More black swan events like this, please.

The latest brood of black swan cygnets make their first appearance on the Brook.

Photograph: Mark Passmore

#photography
#birds
#BlackSwans
#cygnets
#AltText

More black swan events like this, please.

The latest brood of black swan cygnets make their first appearance on the Brook.

Photograph: Mark Passmore

#photography
#birds
#BlackSwans
#cygnets
#AltText

@eskealler @anderslund @folfdk @Mads5408 Det minder mig om den fantastiske bog fra 2023, How Big Things Get Done af Bent Flyvbjerg, der har forsket i projektledelse og har en kæmpe database med data om mere end 16.000 projekter. https://www.itu.dk/Om-ITU/Presse/Nyheder/2023/How-Big-Things-Get-Done-af-Bent-Flyvbjerg-modtager-imponerende-omtale-i-medier-verden-over

https://www.zetland.dk/historie/s8D3lLNk-meEl96YM-5687c

#BlackSwans
#StrategicMisrepresentation
#CommitmentFallacy
#EternalBeginnerSyndrome
#ThinkSlowActFast
#BentFlyvbjerg

@eskealler @anderslund @folfdk @Mads5408 Det minder mig om den fantastiske bog fra 2023, How Big Things Get Done af Bent Flyvbjerg, der har forsket i projektledelse og har en kæmpe database med data om mere end 16.000 projekter. https://www.itu.dk/Om-ITU/Presse/Nyheder/2023/How-Big-Things-Get-Done-af-Bent-Flyvbjerg-modtager-imponerende-omtale-i-medier-verden-over

https://www.zetland.dk/historie/s8D3lLNk-meEl96YM-5687c

#BlackSwans
#StrategicMisrepresentation
#CommitmentFallacy
#EternalBeginnerSyndrome
#ThinkSlowActFast
#BentFlyvbjerg

#crypto #blackswans #Economics #Recession

The Moment I Realized We Were Headed for Another Financial Crisis https://slate.com/technology/2025/05/cryptocurrency-financial-crisis-silicon-valley-bank-collapse.html?via=rss

#crypto #blackswans #Economics #Recession

The Moment I Realized We Were Headed for Another Financial Crisis https://slate.com/technology/2025/05/cryptocurrency-financial-crisis-silicon-valley-bank-collapse.html?via=rss

#BlackSwans

"2024 often felt manic, with assassination attempts on Donald Trump, war in the Middle East and the implosion of Joe Biden’s presidential campaign. But there’s no reason to think 2025 will be any calmer.

That’s not just because Trump is likely to preside over a volatile second term in the White House. Based on his first term, that is to be expected. But there will also, undoubtedly, be unexpected shocks that no one can predict in advance.

So we asked an array of thinkers — futurists, scientists, foreign policy analysts and others — to lay out some of the possible 'Black Swan' events that could await us in the new year: What are the unpredictable, unlikely episodes that aren’t yet on the radar but would completely upend American life as we know it?

Our experts floated all sorts of catastrophes, from the threat of AI to deadly epidemics, but they also raised the notion of progress, including in some surprising global hotspots.

The following scenarios may or may not take place in 2025, but they shouldn’t immediately be dismissed. When we undertook this exercise last year, a number of predictions proved eerily prescient.

(. . .)

Everything is now so tightly interconnected that the potential for surprise exceeds anything we’ve seen in recent years. So get ready for lots of mini-Black Swans — that would translate to a new term, one with absolutely no catchy ring: Black Cygnets.

(. . .)

Lastly, let’s not overlook the vulnerability of our global infrastructure to major disruptions from cyberattacks, geological upheavals or solar phenomena. Such events could cripple energy and communication networks, impacting everything from satellite operations to transportation systems worldwide. The interconnectedness of modern infrastructures means that the ripple effects of such disruptions could be global in scale, affecting economic stability and daily living conditions."

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/01/03/15-unpredictable-scenarios-for-2025-00196309

Returning to our hotel in #StHelens #StHelensTasmania there was a swampy marsh right in front of our room. It had a few #BlackSwans #Swan #Swans paddling around.

At nearly 50m away, I was impressed by my Sigma lens being able to resolve the drops of water falling from the swans neck.

Further away in the bay, there were some other swans swimming and dipping below the surface.

#Tasmania #SigmaPhoto #Bird #Birds #BirdPhotography #600mm #Photography #BirdsOfMastodon

Have been hearing about stray #BlackSwans in the Portland area for several years now but this is the first I've seen. Native to Australia and certainly escaped from a captive waterfowl collection. The posture was striking to me, neck stiff and often angled forward. Different from the classic swan-curve of European Mute Swans, and also from the vertically held, tapering pillar-like necks of our Tundra and Trumpeter Swans. Wings flash a surprising and extensive white in flight! #Birding #Oregon

Nobody is prepared for #climate #BlackSwans, and this will cost us, in lives as well as money, and both numbers will be large.

"The rapid onset of consistently hot and deadly temperatures is catching people off guard."

“The human brain can’t keep up with the acceleration and the perception of your own risk.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/14/we-are-not-prepared-disasters-spread-as-climate-change-strikes-00106439

Some photos of beautiful black swans I took last year! :BlackSwan: 😍 #Swans #BlackSwans #Birds #BirdPhotography #AnimalPhotography #noxp #Photography #Nature #NaturePhotography #AustralianWildlife #Australia #WesternAustralia #AltText

I am glad you said maybe. I don't think humanity has it together with or without #AI. The problems is that humans create "adaptive complex systems" that R being used 4 good/evil. Then there are unexpected consequences / #BlackSwans / Asimov’s #Mule (Foundation Trilogy). There is is also the magic #: 7 +/- 2. The limit of humans 2be able 2 hold discrete facts. How about Hobbes': "All men are at war with each other...." Wittgenstein maintains communications between humans is impossible.