#baseratefallacy — Public Fediverse posts

Ein neuer Zangerle ist in der Seuchenkolumne erschienen:

Gute Nachrichten von Covid. Schlechte Nachrichten von der politischen Vernunft
https://www.falter.at/seuchenkolumne/20240119/gute-nachrichten-von-covid-schlechte-nachrichten-von-der-politischen-vernunft

#Seuchenkolumne #zangerle #covid #covid19 #covid19at #österreich #ili #influenzaLikeIllness #influenza #rsv #Abwassermonitoring #bettenbelegung #krankenhausaufnahme #impfung #Auffrischungsimpfung #pravalenzfehler #BaseRateFallacy #jn1

Another #framingEffect?

In "The Allure of #Simplicity", Jack Justus, Samantha Wakil and I run three #experiments on people's evaluations of explanations.

Merely labeling explanations 'simpler' or 'simplest' made people more vulnerable to the #baseRateFallacy and the #conjunctionFallacy!

Jack and I present our data and conclusions at #PSA2022 on Saturday.

Abstract: https://psa2022.dryfta.com/85-information-for-attendees/news/abstract/public/496/the-allure-of-simplicity-framing-effects-and-theoretical-virtues

#xPhi #PhilSci #CogSci #DecisionScience #Rationality #Epistemology #Psychology #Science #SciComm #Virtue