#baseratefallacy — Public Fediverse posts

Ein neuer Zangerle ist in der Seuchenkolumne erschienen:

Gute Nachrichten von Covid. Schlechte Nachrichten von der politischen Vernunft
https://www.falter.at/seuchenkolumne/20240119/gute-nachrichten-von-covid-schlechte-nachrichten-von-der-politischen-vernunft

#Seuchenkolumne #zangerle #covid #covid19 #covid19at #österreich #ili #influenzaLikeIllness #influenza #rsv #Abwassermonitoring #bettenbelegung #krankenhausaufnahme #impfung #Auffrischungsimpfung #pravalenzfehler #BaseRateFallacy #jn1

"When Cognitive Reflection Leads to Less Overall but More Systematic Judgment Bias":
🤨 Participants who performed better on trick math and logic questions (a.k.a., reflection tests) were MORE (not less) likely to commit a statistical error: a "tendency to underestimate base rates".
🤔 However, the performing well on the trick questions also predicted a LOWER absolute (value of) error.

https://doi.org/10.3390/jintelligence11060100

#decisionScience #cogSci #psychology #probability #CriticalThinking #BaseRateFallacy

@jbaert Ik hoop dat ze dat niet doen: 26% True Positive, 9% False Positive ... Als 10% van de klas ChatGPT gebruikt, dan gaat 75% van de ‘dit is een AI’ voorspellingen een valse beschuldiging zijn. #BaseRateFallacy

A good thread explaining Base Rate Fallacy & #Covid #Perceptions #Statistics #Logic #Analysis #BaseRateFallacy #Fallacies https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1615018133814657033.html

If you (correctly) knew to debunk the message behind “most people dying of COVID were vaccinated” but not that behind “most people with Long COVID had a mild initial case,” maybe ask yourself why. #BaseRateFallacy

Another #framingEffect?

In "The Allure of #Simplicity", Jack Justus, Samantha Wakil and I run three #experiments on people's evaluations of explanations.

Merely labeling explanations 'simpler' or 'simplest' made people more vulnerable to the #baseRateFallacy and the #conjunctionFallacy!

Jack and I present our data and conclusions at #PSA2022 on Saturday.

Abstract: https://psa2022.dryfta.com/85-information-for-attendees/news/abstract/public/496/the-allure-of-simplicity-framing-effects-and-theoretical-virtues

#xPhi #PhilSci #CogSci #DecisionScience #Rationality #Epistemology #Psychology #Science #SciComm #Virtue