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122 results for “danoehm”
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#Survivor49 votes with the jury While it was a surprising move, 𝗥𝗶𝘇𝗼 and 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 were blindsided, and 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 owned the move. She also stacked the jury in her favour. Not to mention Sophi fumbling the KIP. Out of the 10 possible jury configurations, 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 wins 5. This could work out for her. 1/
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#Survivor49 votes with the jury While it was a surprising move, 𝗥𝗶𝘇𝗼 and 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮𝗵 were blindsided, and 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 owned the move. She also stacked the jury in her favour. Not to mention Sophi fumbling the KIP. Out of the 10 possible jury configurations, 𝗦𝗮𝗴𝗲 wins 5. This could work out for her. 1/
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Complete #SurvivorAU Redemption (AU12) data has been delivered. As per usual, any corrections needed, please log an issue on Git and I will correct them asap. 💾 github.com/doehm/survivoR #Survivor #Rstats
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Here are the final votes with the jury. It almost played out as expected. Only Cameron voted differently. #SurvivorAU
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All models are wrong, but some are useful, and this might be turning out to be one of the useful ones #SurvivorAU
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:icfzze6zwdb53lhw5gis3jf3/post/3miy6w4zsls2d -
Need to review in a week or so, but #SurvivorAU Redemption is the 5th highest rated (IMDb) season and higher than all US seasons. 𝟷 𝚂𝟷𝟷 𝟿.0𝟹 𝟸 𝚂0𝟿 𝟾.𝟼𝟾 𝟹 𝚂𝟷0 𝟾.𝟼𝟽 𝟺 𝚂0𝟻 𝟾.𝟻𝟾 𝟻 𝚂𝟷𝟸 𝟾.𝟻𝟷 👈 𝟼 𝚂0𝟺 𝟾.𝟺𝟹 𝟽 𝚂0𝟽 𝟾.𝟺𝟸 𝟾 𝚂0𝟾 𝟾.𝟸𝟿 𝟿 𝚂0𝟹 𝟾.𝟸𝟻 𝟷0 𝚂0𝟼 𝟾.𝟸𝟺 𝟷𝟷 𝚂0𝟸 𝟾.𝟷𝟾 𝟷𝟸 𝚂0𝟷 𝟽.𝟽
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A live reunion with a theatrical vote delivery was exactly what I needed. It's the perfect way to end a great season. Not only that, the next season being set in Malaysia is a breath of fresh air. I haven't been this excited for a new season in a while. Well done #SurvivorAU
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While Caleb is sitting in a better position probabilistically, Jackson seems to be better placed with the jury. The more times a players as voted with a juror, the more likely the juror will reward them with their vote at the FTC. #SurvivorAU
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I wouldn't have expected Caleb to be the frontrunner at final 4, but here we are. #SurvivorAU
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Here's a random stat. I looked at how many tribal councils have had <6 people attending (excluding the final 5 onwards) • Out of 50 seasons, US #Survivor has had 96 (16% of TCs) • 36 have been in the New Era (32% of TCs) • #SurvivorAU has only had 3! (1% of TCs) and one of those may not count.
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#SurvivorAU Redemption winning odds I think it comes down to whether Brooke can win the last few immunity challenges, potentially 5 IIC. If anyone can do it, it's Brooke. If not, Keeley is in the best position. #Survivor
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#SurvivorAU confessionals/hr This pattern is wild #Survivor
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#SurvivorAU Vote Network Who has voted with who, and how many times indicates alliance strength and is a strong predictor of who will win. Look for those with a large circle and the most votes - Simon and Keeley stand out
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I honestly don't have a good feel for who is going to win this season from here. However, the data suggests there are two clear favourites: 🟣 Simon - 34% 🟢 Keeley - 26% #SurvivorAU
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At merge, the player that wins the first IIC immediately raises their threat level - "they're going to win every immunity challenge" tends to be the narrative. So, is it disadvantageous to win the first individual immunity challenge? Historically, not really. 🧵 #Survivor #SurvivorAU #stats
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Merge is happening next week in #survivorAU, potentially the most important part of the game. It's critical to be on the right side of the vote. A player who is on the wrong side of the vote after merge has ~75% lower chance of winning the game. Here's a short #stats analysis 🧵 #survivor
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So, I didn't know who Jac Brown was until this episode. Turns out he's pretty popular (with the players at least, not necessarily the viewers). Anyway, data is up. 🔗 github.com/doehm/survivoR #Survivor #Survivor50 #SurvivorAU
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#SurvivorAU confessionals/hr Mark has the 4th highest cph compared to the expected value after 9 episodes 1. Nick 3.3x 2. Luke 3x 3. Kat 2.8x 4. Mark 2.6x 👈 5. David 2.5x 6. George 2.4x 🥈 7. Mat 2.3x 8. Phoebe 2.3x 9. David 2.3x 🏆 10. Kirby 2.2x #Survivor
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Data is up. Also, excellent news. Only two episodes of #SurvivorAU next week! #Survivor github.com/doehm/survivoR
GitHub - doehm/survivoR: Data ... -
Looks like we've got two tribe swaps coming this week. This deserves a longer post, but I quickly looked into the chances of surviving the next tribal after the swap. tl;dr those in the minority are about 3.4x more likely to be voted out next. More to come. #Survivor50 #SurvivorAU
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#SurvivorAU confessionals/hr (cph) Mark is clearly taking the lion's share with 2.2x higher cph than expected. It looks like there are fewer confessionals across the board this season. #Survivor
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#SurvivorAU S12 Week 2 Best plays this week: 🪆 The Russian Rouflint blow up 🦗 The "I'm Mat Rogers' brother" reveal #Survivor
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I really liked this challenge and I'm glad #SurvivorAU have challenges played in rounds e.g. the first to 3 or 5 points. US #Survivor has decided they don't need them anymore. I think the last challenge played in rounds was S40 Ep1 - By any means necessary.
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I was a bit late setting this up, but the confessional timing and counting app is ready go for #survivor50 and #SurvivorAU for those interested. danieloehm.shinyapps.io/survivorDash/
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#SurvivorAU Confessionals/hr (cph) Those with a 🟠 have a higher cph than expected - that's Harry, Mark, Lottie, and Johnson. Richard and Tez didn't receive a single confessional in 3 episodes. What does that actually mean? It doesn't look good for them 🧵 1/
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#survivorAU has a habit of giving some players barely any edit. Likely because they aren't that influential in the game, and the other storylines are more interesting. What does this mean for Richard and Tez? 2/
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#SurvivorAU Redemption 21 remain 2 idols in play Loz has the most votes received 3 players on Barren have received at least 1 vote #Survivor
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I cancelled my vacation. I cancelled my doctor's appointment. I cancelled everything I could cancel, and now up to date with AU12 and US50. Data is on Git, and some stats to come! 🔗 github.com/doehm/surviv... #survivorAU #survivor50