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143 results for “danoehm”
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That's quite a swing from the last episode! For the record, I would still put my money on Aubry winning, but this is why I like looking at these charts, it shows things you may be missing. Jonathan is actually in a good position. But it always comes down to the pitch. #Survivor #Survivor50
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Ok, this is kind of interesting. Consensus is that the final 5 vote is one of the most important in the game. I wanted to see how the final 5 vote affects the players' chances of winning. The results are not what you'd expect. 🧵 1/ #Survivor
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There's been a shift in the leaderboard with Ozzy voted out. Aubry now has the best odds, followed by Jonathan. I'm still hopeful this is Cirie's season though. #Survivor50
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The top 3 players on the CPH chart are now Devens, Cirie, and Jonathan, the only 3 still in the game with a +ve edit. Jonathan has the largest difference between obs and exp. He's had a couple of really good episodes tbh. #Survivor50
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I *think* (assuming I haven't missed any edge cases or a data descrepency - please reach out if so) the next challenge will be Cirie's 100th! This includes challenges where she sat on the bench. Imagine if she won individual immunity. Huge. #Survivor50
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Standings after episode 10. Ozzy is still in the lead. What this means is that all the data points are saying that Ozzy is in a more similar position to players who have won in the past than the other players. #Survivor50 #Survivor
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#Survivor50 confessionals/hr At this stage Devens has the largest over-edit wrt to CPH. It's also interesting that Rizo is low given his position. The mean CPH for a winner at episode 10 in the new era is 4.2. All are under, but Ozzy is closest to that benchmark. #Survivor
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Complete #SurvivorAU Redemption (AU12) data has been delivered. As per usual, any corrections needed, please log an issue on Git and I will correct them asap. 💾 github.com/doehm/survivoR #Survivor #Rstats
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Here are the final votes with the jury. It almost played out as expected. Only Cameron voted differently. #SurvivorAU
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All models are wrong, but some are useful, and this might be turning out to be one of the useful ones #SurvivorAU
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:icfzze6zwdb53lhw5gis3jf3/post/3miy6w4zsls2d -
Need to review in a week or so, but #SurvivorAU Redemption is the 5th highest rated (IMDb) season and higher than all US seasons. 𝟷 𝚂𝟷𝟷 𝟿.0𝟹 𝟸 𝚂0𝟿 𝟾.𝟼𝟾 𝟹 𝚂𝟷0 𝟾.𝟼𝟽 𝟺 𝚂0𝟻 𝟾.𝟻𝟾 𝟻 𝚂𝟷𝟸 𝟾.𝟻𝟷 👈 𝟼 𝚂0𝟺 𝟾.𝟺𝟹 𝟽 𝚂0𝟽 𝟾.𝟺𝟸 𝟾 𝚂0𝟾 𝟾.𝟸𝟿 𝟿 𝚂0𝟹 𝟾.𝟸𝟻 𝟷0 𝚂0𝟼 𝟾.𝟸𝟺 𝟷𝟷 𝚂0𝟸 𝟾.𝟷𝟾 𝟷𝟸 𝚂0𝟷 𝟽.𝟽
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A live reunion with a theatrical vote delivery was exactly what I needed. It's the perfect way to end a great season. Not only that, the next season being set in Malaysia is a breath of fresh air. I haven't been this excited for a new season in a while. Well done #SurvivorAU
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While Caleb is sitting in a better position probabilistically, Jackson seems to be better placed with the jury. The more times a players as voted with a juror, the more likely the juror will reward them with their vote at the FTC. #SurvivorAU
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I wouldn't have expected Caleb to be the frontrunner at final 4, but here we are. #SurvivorAU
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Here's a random stat. I looked at how many tribal councils have had <6 people attending (excluding the final 5 onwards) • Out of 50 seasons, US #Survivor has had 96 (16% of TCs) • 36 have been in the New Era (32% of TCs) • #SurvivorAU has only had 3! (1% of TCs) and one of those may not count.
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#SurvivorAU Redemption winning odds I think it comes down to whether Brooke can win the last few immunity challenges, potentially 5 IIC. If anyone can do it, it's Brooke. If not, Keeley is in the best position. #Survivor
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#SurvivorAU confessionals/hr This pattern is wild #Survivor
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#SurvivorAU Vote Network Who has voted with who, and how many times indicates alliance strength and is a strong predictor of who will win. Look for those with a large circle and the most votes - Simon and Keeley stand out
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I honestly don't have a good feel for who is going to win this season from here. However, the data suggests there are two clear favourites: 🟣 Simon - 34% 🟢 Keeley - 26% #SurvivorAU
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At merge, the player that wins the first IIC immediately raises their threat level - "they're going to win every immunity challenge" tends to be the narrative. So, is it disadvantageous to win the first individual immunity challenge? Historically, not really. 🧵 #Survivor #SurvivorAU #stats
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Merge is happening next week in #survivorAU, potentially the most important part of the game. It's critical to be on the right side of the vote. A player who is on the wrong side of the vote after merge has ~75% lower chance of winning the game. Here's a short #stats analysis 🧵 #survivor
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So, I didn't know who Jac Brown was until this episode. Turns out he's pretty popular (with the players at least, not necessarily the viewers). Anyway, data is up. 🔗 github.com/doehm/survivoR #Survivor #Survivor50 #SurvivorAU
