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41 results for “markpine”
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$15,000 per month plus expenses web marketing and online advertising. https://youtu.be/UYbnpm9e_Y8?si=RvEahYG5VDZa32Ja via
@youtube
#markpine #nyc #marketing #webmarketing #advertising #onlineadvertising #bannerads #imageads #newyork #corporatevideo #socialmediamarketing -
"NZTA central South Island area manager Mark Pinner said the agency 'understands' the argument for the bridges being stored on the West Coast, but repeated NZTA's previous stated position.
'Our position is that storing these Bailey or Acrow bridge components in a central location like Christchurch is logistically and strategically the best option for responding to emergencies or disaster events that may occur anywhere in New Zealand'."
#MarkPinner, 2026
(1/?)
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"NZTA central South Island area manager Mark Pinner said the agency 'understands' the argument for the bridges being stored on the West Coast, but repeated NZTA's previous stated position.
'Our position is that storing these Bailey or Acrow bridge components in a central location like Christchurch is logistically and strategically the best option for responding to emergencies or disaster events that may occur anywhere in New Zealand'."
#MarkPinner, 2026
(1/?)
-
"NZTA central South Island area manager Mark Pinner said the agency 'understands' the argument for the bridges being stored on the West Coast, but repeated NZTA's previous stated position.
'Our position is that storing these Bailey or Acrow bridge components in a central location like Christchurch is logistically and strategically the best option for responding to emergencies or disaster events that may occur anywhere in New Zealand'."
#MarkPinner, 2026
(1/?)
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🧵1/14 Who is Mark Minervini? A renowned stock trader known for turning a modest stake into millions. Minervini, a U.S. Investing Champion, embodies the blend of disciplined risk management, precise timing, and a sharp eye for market leaders. Let's dive into his key strategies. #MarkMinervini #TradingStrategy
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"NZTA central South Island area manager Mark Pinner said the agency 'understands' the argument for the bridges being stored on the West Coast, but repeated NZTA's previous stated position.
'Our position is that storing these Bailey or Acrow bridge components in a central location like Christchurch is logistically and strategically the best option for responding to emergencies or disaster events that may occur anywhere in New Zealand'."
#MarkPinner, 2026
(1/?)
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🇺🇦 regained their position near #Kolesnykivka
🇺🇦 destroyed 🇷🇺 fuel and ammunition depots near #Markine, in #Donetsk, storing rounds for BMPs, tanks, anti-tank missiles, mines, grenades, and millions of bullets
🇺🇦 downed 46/49 #Shahed drones
🇺🇦 destroyed 40 fuel cars of 🇷🇺 military train in #Zaporizhzhia
🇺🇦 cruise missile #Peklo (~700km range) has entered mass production
🇷🇺 advanced near Zelenivka, Storozheve, Dachenske, Chasovyi Yar and Novyi Komar
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🇺🇦 regained their position near #Kolesnykivka
🇺🇦 destroyed 🇷🇺 fuel and ammunition depots near #Markine, in #Donetsk, storing rounds for BMPs, tanks, anti-tank missiles, mines, grenades, and millions of bullets
🇺🇦 downed 46/49 #Shahed drones
🇺🇦 destroyed 40 fuel cars of 🇷🇺 military train in #Zaporizhzhia
🇺🇦 cruise missile #Peklo (~700km range) has entered mass production
🇷🇺 advanced near Zelenivka, Storozheve, Dachenske, Chasovyi Yar and Novyi Komar
-
🇺🇦 regained their position near #Kolesnykivka
🇺🇦 destroyed 🇷🇺 fuel and ammunition depots near #Markine, in #Donetsk, storing rounds for BMPs, tanks, anti-tank missiles, mines, grenades, and millions of bullets
🇺🇦 downed 46/49 #Shahed drones
🇺🇦 destroyed 40 fuel cars of 🇷🇺 military train in #Zaporizhzhia
🇺🇦 cruise missile #Peklo (~700km range) has entered mass production
🇷🇺 advanced near Zelenivka, Storozheve, Dachenske, Chasovyi Yar and Novyi Komar
-
🇺🇦 regained their position near #Kolesnykivka
🇺🇦 destroyed 🇷🇺 fuel and ammunition depots near #Markine, in #Donetsk, storing rounds for BMPs, tanks, anti-tank missiles, mines, grenades, and millions of bullets
🇺🇦 downed 46/49 #Shahed drones
🇺🇦 destroyed 40 fuel cars of 🇷🇺 military train in #Zaporizhzhia
🇺🇦 cruise missile #Peklo (~700km range) has entered mass production
🇷🇺 advanced near Zelenivka, Storozheve, Dachenske, Chasovyi Yar and Novyi Komar
-
🇺🇦 regained their position near #Kolesnykivka
🇺🇦 destroyed 🇷🇺 fuel and ammunition depots near #Markine, in #Donetsk, storing rounds for BMPs, tanks, anti-tank missiles, mines, grenades, and millions of bullets
🇺🇦 downed 46/49 #Shahed drones
🇺🇦 destroyed 40 fuel cars of 🇷🇺 military train in #Zaporizhzhia
🇺🇦 cruise missile #Peklo (~700km range) has entered mass production
🇷🇺 advanced near Zelenivka, Storozheve, Dachenske, Chasovyi Yar and Novyi Komar
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Prentis, new AI lab co-founded by Reid Hoffman, Mark Pincus in talks to raise $100M
Prentis, a new AI research lab focused on computer use models, co-founded by serial entrepreneur Ritankar Das and…
#NewsBeep #News #US #USA #UnitedStates #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #Artificialintelligence #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Exclusive #markpincus #ReidHoffman #Technology
https://www.newsbeep.com/us/783002/ -
https://www.europesays.com/people/68186/ Anthropic Expands Legal AI Tools, Boosting Claude Cowork #AiLab #Anthropic #ClaudeCowork #DarioAmodei #engineer #february #interest #lawyer #LegalAiTool #MarkPike #NewRelease #OtherIndustry #product #ThomsonReuters #tool #work
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“The present is pregnant with the future”*…
The estimable Tim O’Reilly uses scenario planning to create an insightful look at AI, our futures, and the choices that will define them…
We all read it in the daily news. The New York Times reports that economists who once dismissed the AI job threat are now taking it seriously. In February, Jack Dorsey cut 40% of Block’s workforce, telling shareholders that “intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company.” Block’s stock rose 20%. Salesforce has shed thousands of customer support workers, saying AI was already doing half the work. And a Stanford study found that software developers aged 22 to 25 saw employment drop nearly 20% from its peak, while developers over 26 were doing fine.
But how are we to square this news with a Vanguard study that found that the 100 occupations most exposed to AI were actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in both job growth and wages, and a rigorous NBER study of 25,000 Danish workers that found zero measurable effect of AI on earnings or hours?
Other studies could contribute to either side of the argument. For example, PwC’s 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer, analyzing close to a billion job ads across six continents, found that workers with AI skills earn a 56% wage premium, and that productivity growth has nearly quadrupled in the industries most exposed to AI.
This is exactly the kind of contradictory, uncertain landscape that scenario planning was designed for. Scenario planning doesn’t ask you to predict what the future will be. It asks you to imagine divergent possible futures and to develop a strategy that improves your odds of success across all of them. I’ve used it many times at O’Reilly and have written about it before with COVID and climate change as illustrative examples. The argument between those who say AI will cause mass unemployment and those who insist technology always creates more jobs than it destroys is a debate that will only be resolved by time. Both sides have evidence. Both are probably right at some level. And both framings are not terribly helpful for anyone trying to figure out what to do next…
[O’Reilly explains the scenario approach, then applies it to our future with AI (see the image above), astutely assessing the conflicting signals that we’ve experiencing; he explores the “robust strategy” for our uncertian future (strategic choices that make sense regardless of which future unfolds); then he concludes…
… I’ll return to the theme that I sounded in my book WTF? What’s the Future and Why It’s Up To Us.
Every time a company uses AI to do what it was already doing with fewer people, it is making a choice for the lower half of the scenario grid. Every time a company uses AI to do something that wasn’t previously possible, to serve a customer who wasn’t previously served, to solve a problem that wasn’t previously solvable, it is making a choice for the upper half. These choices compound, for good or ill. An economy that uses AI primarily for efficiency will slowly hollow itself out.
Looking at the news from the future, both sets of signals are present. The question is which will dominate. AI will give us both the Augmentation Economy and the Displacement Crisis, in different measures in different places, depending on the choices we make.
Scenario planning teaches us that we don’t have to predict which future we’ll get. We do have to prepare for a very uncertain future. But the robust strategy, the one that works across every quadrant, is to focus on doing more, not just doing the same with less, and to find ways that human taste still matters in what is created. As long as there is unmet demand, as long as there are problems we haven’t solved and people we haven’t served, AI will augment human work rather than replacing it. It’s only when we stop looking for new things to do that the machines come for the jobs…
Eminently worth reading in full. Indeed, speaking as a long-time scenario planner, your correspondent can only wish that everyone who wields “scenarios” applies the approach as appropriately, adriotly, and acutely as Tim has: “Scenario Planning for AI and the ‘Jobless Future‘,” from @timoreilly.bsky.social.
* Voltaire
###
As we take the long view, we might send formative birthday greetings to Mark Pinsker; he was born on this date in 1923. A mathematician, he made impoprtant contributions to the fields of information theory, probability theory, coding theory, ergodic theory, mathematical statistics, and communication networks. This work, which helped lay the foundation for AI-as-we-know-it, earned him the IEEE Claude E. Shannon Award in 1978, and the IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal in 1996, among other honors.
#AI #artificialIntelligence #business #culture #economics #employment #future #history #informationTheory #jobs #MarkPinsker #Mathematics #politics #scenarioPlanning #scenarios #Science #society #Technology #TimOReilly -
In our latest article, our AI narrator Henry breaks down the actionable, non-negotiable rules to protect your capital. Stop gambling. Start trading.
Watch Video on: https://overwi.se/2025/10/23/why-risk-management-is-the-game-avoid-blow-ups-trade-like-a-pro/
#Trading #RiskManagement #StockMarket #Investing #JesseLivermore #MarkMinervini #TradingPsychology #PositionSizing #OverWise #Finance (3/3)
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Aktuell in der HörBar: Liszt / Mark Viner
Eine Sammlung von zwölf Klavierstücken, die man nicht ohne weiteres mit Franz Liszt in Verbindung bringt. Dabei hat es sich der Tasten-Virtuose mit der Komposition von Weihnachtsbaum nicht gerade leicht gemacht – zwischen 1873/74 und 1882 entstanden insgesamt vier Fassungen für zwei Hände und weitere für zwei Klaviere. Nicht alle se
https://hoerbar.nmz.de/2024/12/liszt-mark-viner/
#EMusik #Romantik #FranzLiszt #MarkViner #PianoClassicsLabel -
Not really a reader of fiction but here is a few writers I'm currently raving about;
#NicolaPierce
#ArthurCClark
#NickDurden
#MarkPiesing
#RowlandWhite
#KatjaHoyer -
Not really a reader of fiction but here is a few writers I'm currently raving about;
#NicolaPierce
#ArthurCClark
#NickDurden
#MarkPiesing
#RowlandWhite
#KatjaHoyer -
Gaming infrastructure startup Pragma raises $12M from Greylock, Mark Pincus and others - Pragma is building what it calls a “backend as a service,” providing ready-made in... - http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/6t6uMtg9OFk/ #greylockpartners #fundings&exits #markpincus #startups #funding #gaming #pragma #tc
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Goodbye Flash, goodbye FarmVille - While much of what made 2020 such an absolute nightmare will still be with us on January 1 (sorry!),... - http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/iogpWcUAL_0/ #markpincus #myminilife #facebook #gaming #social #adobe #flash #zynga
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Reid Hoffman, Zynga’s Mark Pincus aim to raise $600M for tech-focused SPAC - Reinvent Technology Partners, a new special purpose acquisition company formed by famed investor and... - http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/lyvE7sFVgTY/ #reinventtechnologypartners #reidhoffman #markpincus #finance #spac #tc
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In-car commerce startup Cargo extends Uber partnership to Brazil - Cargo, the startup that brings the convenience store into ride-hailing vehicles, is making its firs... more: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Techcrunch/~3/6YjORaVFC7Y/ #coatuemanagement #transportation #colincarrier #foundersfund #automotive #davidstern #markpincus #twitch #cargo #zynga #uber
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Prentis, new AI lab co-founded by Reid Hoffman, Mark Pincus in talks to raise $100M
Prentis, a new AI research lab focused on computer use models, co-founded by serial entrepreneur Ritankar Das and…
#NewsBeep #News #US #USA #UnitedStates #UnitedStatesOfAmerica #Artificialintelligence #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Exclusive #markpincus #ReidHoffman #Technology
https://www.newsbeep.com/us/783002/ -
“The present is pregnant with the future”*…
The estimable Tim O’Reilly uses scenario planning to create an insightful look at AI, our futures, and the choices that will define them…
We all read it in the daily news. The New York Times reports that economists who once dismissed the AI job threat are now taking it seriously. In February, Jack Dorsey cut 40% of Block’s workforce, telling shareholders that “intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company.” Block’s stock rose 20%. Salesforce has shed thousands of customer support workers, saying AI was already doing half the work. And a Stanford study found that software developers aged 22 to 25 saw employment drop nearly 20% from its peak, while developers over 26 were doing fine.
But how are we to square this news with a Vanguard study that found that the 100 occupations most exposed to AI were actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in both job growth and wages, and a rigorous NBER study of 25,000 Danish workers that found zero measurable effect of AI on earnings or hours?
Other studies could contribute to either side of the argument. For example, PwC’s 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer, analyzing close to a billion job ads across six continents, found that workers with AI skills earn a 56% wage premium, and that productivity growth has nearly quadrupled in the industries most exposed to AI.
This is exactly the kind of contradictory, uncertain landscape that scenario planning was designed for. Scenario planning doesn’t ask you to predict what the future will be. It asks you to imagine divergent possible futures and to develop a strategy that improves your odds of success across all of them. I’ve used it many times at O’Reilly and have written about it before with COVID and climate change as illustrative examples. The argument between those who say AI will cause mass unemployment and those who insist technology always creates more jobs than it destroys is a debate that will only be resolved by time. Both sides have evidence. Both are probably right at some level. And both framings are not terribly helpful for anyone trying to figure out what to do next…
[O’Reilly explains the scenario approach, then applies it to our future with AI (see the image above), astutely assessing the conflicting signals that we’ve experiencing; he explores the “robust strategy” for our uncertian future (strategic choices that make sense regardless of which future unfolds); then he concludes…
… I’ll return to the theme that I sounded in my book WTF? What’s the Future and Why It’s Up To Us.
Every time a company uses AI to do what it was already doing with fewer people, it is making a choice for the lower half of the scenario grid. Every time a company uses AI to do something that wasn’t previously possible, to serve a customer who wasn’t previously served, to solve a problem that wasn’t previously solvable, it is making a choice for the upper half. These choices compound, for good or ill. An economy that uses AI primarily for efficiency will slowly hollow itself out.
Looking at the news from the future, both sets of signals are present. The question is which will dominate. AI will give us both the Augmentation Economy and the Displacement Crisis, in different measures in different places, depending on the choices we make.
Scenario planning teaches us that we don’t have to predict which future we’ll get. We do have to prepare for a very uncertain future. But the robust strategy, the one that works across every quadrant, is to focus on doing more, not just doing the same with less, and to find ways that human taste still matters in what is created. As long as there is unmet demand, as long as there are problems we haven’t solved and people we haven’t served, AI will augment human work rather than replacing it. It’s only when we stop looking for new things to do that the machines come for the jobs…
Eminently worth reading in full. Indeed, speaking as a long-time scenario planner, your correspondent can only wish that everyone who wields “scenarios” applies the approach as appropriately, adriotly, and acutely as Tim has: “Scenario Planning for AI and the ‘Jobless Future‘,” from @timoreilly.bsky.social.
* Voltaire
###
As we take the long view, we might send formative birthday greetings to Mark Pinsker; he was born on this date in 1923. A mathematician, he made impoprtant contributions to the fields of information theory, probability theory, coding theory, ergodic theory, mathematical statistics, and communication networks. This work, which helped lay the foundation for AI-as-we-know-it, earned him the IEEE Claude E. Shannon Award in 1978, and the IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal in 1996, among other honors.
#AI #artificialIntelligence #business #culture #economics #employment #future #history #informationTheory #jobs #MarkPinsker #Mathematics #politics #scenarioPlanning #scenarios #Science #society #Technology #TimOReilly -
“The present is pregnant with the future”*…
The estimable Tim O’Reilly uses scenario planning to create an insightful look at AI, our futures, and the choices that will define them…
We all read it in the daily news. The New York Times reports that economists who once dismissed the AI job threat are now taking it seriously. In February, Jack Dorsey cut 40% of Block’s workforce, telling shareholders that “intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company.” Block’s stock rose 20%. Salesforce has shed thousands of customer support workers, saying AI was already doing half the work. And a Stanford study found that software developers aged 22 to 25 saw employment drop nearly 20% from its peak, while developers over 26 were doing fine.
But how are we to square this news with a Vanguard study that found that the 100 occupations most exposed to AI were actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in both job growth and wages, and a rigorous NBER study of 25,000 Danish workers that found zero measurable effect of AI on earnings or hours?
Other studies could contribute to either side of the argument. For example, PwC’s 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer, analyzing close to a billion job ads across six continents, found that workers with AI skills earn a 56% wage premium, and that productivity growth has nearly quadrupled in the industries most exposed to AI.
This is exactly the kind of contradictory, uncertain landscape that scenario planning was designed for. Scenario planning doesn’t ask you to predict what the future will be. It asks you to imagine divergent possible futures and to develop a strategy that improves your odds of success across all of them. I’ve used it many times at O’Reilly and have written about it before with COVID and climate change as illustrative examples. The argument between those who say AI will cause mass unemployment and those who insist technology always creates more jobs than it destroys is a debate that will only be resolved by time. Both sides have evidence. Both are probably right at some level. And both framings are not terribly helpful for anyone trying to figure out what to do next…
[O’Reilly explains the scenario approach, then applies it to our future with AI (see the image above), astutely assessing the conflicting signals that we’ve experiencing; he explores the “robust strategy” for our uncertian future (strategic choices that make sense regardless of which future unfolds); then he concludes…
… I’ll return to the theme that I sounded in my book WTF? What’s the Future and Why It’s Up To Us.
Every time a company uses AI to do what it was already doing with fewer people, it is making a choice for the lower half of the scenario grid. Every time a company uses AI to do something that wasn’t previously possible, to serve a customer who wasn’t previously served, to solve a problem that wasn’t previously solvable, it is making a choice for the upper half. These choices compound, for good or ill. An economy that uses AI primarily for efficiency will slowly hollow itself out.
Looking at the news from the future, both sets of signals are present. The question is which will dominate. AI will give us both the Augmentation Economy and the Displacement Crisis, in different measures in different places, depending on the choices we make.
Scenario planning teaches us that we don’t have to predict which future we’ll get. We do have to prepare for a very uncertain future. But the robust strategy, the one that works across every quadrant, is to focus on doing more, not just doing the same with less, and to find ways that human taste still matters in what is created. As long as there is unmet demand, as long as there are problems we haven’t solved and people we haven’t served, AI will augment human work rather than replacing it. It’s only when we stop looking for new things to do that the machines come for the jobs…
Eminently worth reading in full. Indeed, speaking as a long-time scenario planner, your correspondent can only wish that everyone who wields “scenarios” applies the approach as appropriately, adriotly, and acutely as Tim has: “Scenario Planning for AI and the ‘Jobless Future‘,” from @timoreilly.bsky.social.
* Voltaire
###
As we take the long view, we might send formative birthday greetings to Mark Pinsker; he was born on this date in 1923. A mathematician, he made impoprtant contributions to the fields of information theory, probability theory, coding theory, ergodic theory, mathematical statistics, and communication networks. This work, which helped lay the foundation for AI-as-we-know-it, earned him the IEEE Claude E. Shannon Award in 1978, and the IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal in 1996, among other honors.
#AI #artificialIntelligence #business #culture #economics #employment #future #history #informationTheory #jobs #MarkPinsker #Mathematics #politics #scenarioPlanning #scenarios #Science #society #Technology #TimOReilly -
“The present is pregnant with the future”*…
The estimable Tim O’Reilly uses scenario planning to create an insightful look at AI, our futures, and the choices that will define them…
We all read it in the daily news. The New York Times reports that economists who once dismissed the AI job threat are now taking it seriously. In February, Jack Dorsey cut 40% of Block’s workforce, telling shareholders that “intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company.” Block’s stock rose 20%. Salesforce has shed thousands of customer support workers, saying AI was already doing half the work. And a Stanford study found that software developers aged 22 to 25 saw employment drop nearly 20% from its peak, while developers over 26 were doing fine.
But how are we to square this news with a Vanguard study that found that the 100 occupations most exposed to AI were actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in both job growth and wages, and a rigorous NBER study of 25,000 Danish workers that found zero measurable effect of AI on earnings or hours?
Other studies could contribute to either side of the argument. For example, PwC’s 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer, analyzing close to a billion job ads across six continents, found that workers with AI skills earn a 56% wage premium, and that productivity growth has nearly quadrupled in the industries most exposed to AI.
This is exactly the kind of contradictory, uncertain landscape that scenario planning was designed for. Scenario planning doesn’t ask you to predict what the future will be. It asks you to imagine divergent possible futures and to develop a strategy that improves your odds of success across all of them. I’ve used it many times at O’Reilly and have written about it before with COVID and climate change as illustrative examples. The argument between those who say AI will cause mass unemployment and those who insist technology always creates more jobs than it destroys is a debate that will only be resolved by time. Both sides have evidence. Both are probably right at some level. And both framings are not terribly helpful for anyone trying to figure out what to do next…
[O’Reilly explains the scenario approach, then applies it to our future with AI (see the image above), astutely assessing the conflicting signals that we’ve experiencing; he explores the “robust strategy” for our uncertian future (strategic choices that make sense regardless of which future unfolds); then he concludes…
… I’ll return to the theme that I sounded in my book WTF? What’s the Future and Why It’s Up To Us.
Every time a company uses AI to do what it was already doing with fewer people, it is making a choice for the lower half of the scenario grid. Every time a company uses AI to do something that wasn’t previously possible, to serve a customer who wasn’t previously served, to solve a problem that wasn’t previously solvable, it is making a choice for the upper half. These choices compound, for good or ill. An economy that uses AI primarily for efficiency will slowly hollow itself out.
Looking at the news from the future, both sets of signals are present. The question is which will dominate. AI will give us both the Augmentation Economy and the Displacement Crisis, in different measures in different places, depending on the choices we make.
Scenario planning teaches us that we don’t have to predict which future we’ll get. We do have to prepare for a very uncertain future. But the robust strategy, the one that works across every quadrant, is to focus on doing more, not just doing the same with less, and to find ways that human taste still matters in what is created. As long as there is unmet demand, as long as there are problems we haven’t solved and people we haven’t served, AI will augment human work rather than replacing it. It’s only when we stop looking for new things to do that the machines come for the jobs…
Eminently worth reading in full. Indeed, speaking as a long-time scenario planner, your correspondent can only wish that everyone who wields “scenarios” applies the approach as appropriately, adriotly, and acutely as Tim has: “Scenario Planning for AI and the ‘Jobless Future‘,” from @timoreilly.bsky.social.
* Voltaire
###
As we take the long view, we might send formative birthday greetings to Mark Pinsker; he was born on this date in 1923. A mathematician, he made impoprtant contributions to the fields of information theory, probability theory, coding theory, ergodic theory, mathematical statistics, and communication networks. This work, which helped lay the foundation for AI-as-we-know-it, earned him the IEEE Claude E. Shannon Award in 1978, and the IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal in 1996, among other honors.
#AI #artificialIntelligence #business #culture #economics #employment #future #history #informationTheory #jobs #MarkPinsker #Mathematics #politics #scenarioPlanning #scenarios #Science #society #Technology #TimOReilly -
“The present is pregnant with the future”*…
The estimable Tim O’Reilly uses scenario planning to create an insightful look at AI, our futures, and the choices that will define them…
We all read it in the daily news. The New York Times reports that economists who once dismissed the AI job threat are now taking it seriously. In February, Jack Dorsey cut 40% of Block’s workforce, telling shareholders that “intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company.” Block’s stock rose 20%. Salesforce has shed thousands of customer support workers, saying AI was already doing half the work. And a Stanford study found that software developers aged 22 to 25 saw employment drop nearly 20% from its peak, while developers over 26 were doing fine.
But how are we to square this news with a Vanguard study that found that the 100 occupations most exposed to AI were actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in both job growth and wages, and a rigorous NBER study of 25,000 Danish workers that found zero measurable effect of AI on earnings or hours?
Other studies could contribute to either side of the argument. For example, PwC’s 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer, analyzing close to a billion job ads across six continents, found that workers with AI skills earn a 56% wage premium, and that productivity growth has nearly quadrupled in the industries most exposed to AI.
This is exactly the kind of contradictory, uncertain landscape that scenario planning was designed for. Scenario planning doesn’t ask you to predict what the future will be. It asks you to imagine divergent possible futures and to develop a strategy that improves your odds of success across all of them. I’ve used it many times at O’Reilly and have written about it before with COVID and climate change as illustrative examples. The argument between those who say AI will cause mass unemployment and those who insist technology always creates more jobs than it destroys is a debate that will only be resolved by time. Both sides have evidence. Both are probably right at some level. And both framings are not terribly helpful for anyone trying to figure out what to do next…
[O’Reilly explains the scenario approach, then applies it to our future with AI (see the image above), astutely assessing the conflicting signals that we’ve experiencing; he explores the “robust strategy” for our uncertian future (strategic choices that make sense regardless of which future unfolds); then he concludes…
… I’ll return to the theme that I sounded in my book WTF? What’s the Future and Why It’s Up To Us.
Every time a company uses AI to do what it was already doing with fewer people, it is making a choice for the lower half of the scenario grid. Every time a company uses AI to do something that wasn’t previously possible, to serve a customer who wasn’t previously served, to solve a problem that wasn’t previously solvable, it is making a choice for the upper half. These choices compound, for good or ill. An economy that uses AI primarily for efficiency will slowly hollow itself out.
Looking at the news from the future, both sets of signals are present. The question is which will dominate. AI will give us both the Augmentation Economy and the Displacement Crisis, in different measures in different places, depending on the choices we make.
Scenario planning teaches us that we don’t have to predict which future we’ll get. We do have to prepare for a very uncertain future. But the robust strategy, the one that works across every quadrant, is to focus on doing more, not just doing the same with less, and to find ways that human taste still matters in what is created. As long as there is unmet demand, as long as there are problems we haven’t solved and people we haven’t served, AI will augment human work rather than replacing it. It’s only when we stop looking for new things to do that the machines come for the jobs…
Eminently worth reading in full. Indeed, speaking as a long-time scenario planner, your correspondent can only wish that everyone who wields “scenarios” applies the approach as appropriately, adriotly, and acutely as Tim has: “Scenario Planning for AI and the ‘Jobless Future‘,” from @timoreilly.bsky.social.
* Voltaire
###
As we take the long view, we might send formative birthday greetings to Mark Pinsker; he was born on this date in 1923. A mathematician, he made impoprtant contributions to the fields of information theory, probability theory, coding theory, ergodic theory, mathematical statistics, and communication networks. This work, which helped lay the foundation for AI-as-we-know-it, earned him the IEEE Claude E. Shannon Award in 1978, and the IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal in 1996, among other honors.
#AI #artificialIntelligence #business #culture #economics #employment #future #history #informationTheory #jobs #MarkPinsker #Mathematics #politics #scenarioPlanning #scenarios #Science #society #Technology #TimOReilly -
🎬 ■ Vídeo en directo: semifinal de la Supercopa de España entre FC Barcelona y Athletic Club ■ Escucha y mira EN DIRECTO el FC BARCELONA vs ATHLETIC CLUB, primera semifinal de la Supercopa de España con Dani Garrido, la narración de Lluis Flaquer, Iñigo Markínez y todo el equipo de Carrusel Deportivo desde Arabia.
https://www.huffingtonpost.es/videos/video-directo-semifinal-supercopa-espana-fc-barcelona-athletic-club-f202601.html?int=MASTODON_WORLD -
🎬 ■ Vídeo en directo: semifinal de la Supercopa de España entre FC Barcelona y Athletic Club ■ Escucha y mira EN DIRECTO el FC BARCELONA vs ATHLETIC CLUB, primera semifinal de la Supercopa de España con Dani Garrido, la narración de Lluis Flaquer, Iñigo Markínez y todo el equipo de Carrusel Deportivo desde Arabia.
https://www.huffingtonpost.es/videos/video-directo-semifinal-supercopa-espana-fc-barcelona-athletic-club-f202601.html?int=MASTODON_WORLD